Charlie Cook said: "IT IS OVER."

[SeeHopeWin]

He gives the following reasons:

1) No candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win.

2) Early voting has made comebacks harder...Pool is getting smaller for McSame EVERYDAY!

3) Switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would almost seal the outcome.

4) Obama's money and spending.

5) Bradley effect if it exists, would be offset by higher AA turnout.

6) Obama is leading in all Kerry states, and leads in many red states, and is tied in many other states.

Snip

As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27296223/

[LonelyLRLiberal]

1. Let's hope Obama gets enough votes to offset the vote theft by the Pukes. nt

[helderheid]

8. OBSW

[iceman66]

16. That's really all that matters.

If the 'margin of fraud' is 10%, Obama could out-perform Clinton and still 'lose'.

[riqster]

17. GOTV

and vigilance will take care of that.

Having more voters than anticipated will bollix up the 'patches' loaded to the central tabulators and DRE's: Vigilance is needed to ensure that all registered voters are allowed to cast their ballots.

Voter Suppression and software fixes can both be beaten by massive turnout. We saw this in 2006, and need to raise our game this time around.

[Mz Pip]

2. Intellectually

I agree with him. Emotionally, I am filled with doubt, fear, mistrust, suspicion, anxiety. I never ever underestimate the power of the dark side.

[SeeHopeWin]

7. Same here...nt

[Terran]

31. Me too

I hate feeling this way.

[featherman]

3. Charlie Cook is a serious guy... he doesn't just throw stuff out there

[SeeHopeWin]

9. Agreed 100%!

[Jack from Charlotte]

29. I'm happy to hear this. Think I'll skip voting here in North Carolina....

since we've got this deal wrapped up.

Just kidding. I voted yesterday.

Cook has been very accurate with his predictions but I'd just warn that this election is very different from all others. We have an African-American candidate with a very odd sounding name.

[ellacott]

4. Wow, this is big coming from Cook

He has one of the reliable polls out there.

[patrice]

5. Also, how many states is Bob Barr in? He's bad for McCrash.

[jillan]

6. I've heard that Charlie is usually right.

Woohoooo!!!!

[Medusa]

10. I just worry about people feeling over-confident

and staying home on election day. EVERY SINGLE VOTE counts people-even in the red states where we know McCain will win--the down ticket matters too. Get out and vote and if you can, yes, vote early.

[SeeHopeWin]

13. That's our job...Call Call Call!!! I did few today, I will do more here in Florida.

[tekisui]

15. I think that people are so excited about this that even if it looked like a

blowout they would want to be part of history.

The people I talk to are all eager to vote for Obama, early if they can. I have not heard or seen a single person act complacent.

[Connie_Corleone]

18. I can't see how anyone would not vote because they think Obama is going to win.

This is an historical election. You would think they would want to be part of history.

[riqster]

26. I know some people who are planning 'protest votes'

...writing in Hillary, Kooch, etc. Their logic is, 'since Obama is going to win', there's no harm in their protest votes.

That is something we need to work on, folks. Talk to your friends.

[Turn CO Blue]

38. You could go make some ballot-chasing calls at the field office

You'll feel less worried and help GOTV. The train you and it's empowering.

[ClarkUSA]

11. Barring a BushCo October Surprise days before Election Day -- OBL tapes, anyone?

Nothing's over until the votes are all counted on Nov. 4.

[Stagecoach]

12. I'd agree with what he's saying

I'm seeing a final percentage of 52-46/47 with the smaller party candidates taking the remaining percentages. Although by the time big states California New York and Illinois, etc. run up the score, it could be an even wider margin.

[louis-t]

14. No campaign has ever cheated like McCain

#5, .."offset by higher AA turnout" Why do they expect a higher turnout from Alcholics Anonymous? Oh....

[Poiuyt]

33. Cindy will be bringing all her Budweiser friends

[Debi]

19. I guess Charlie Cook can sit back and relax..but I'm working through 9:00 PM on Nov. 4th

and taking NOTHING for granted! :woohoo:

[SeeHopeWin]

21. I am doing the same :)

[Erin Elizabeth]

20. If my area during the primaries was any indication of higher

African-American turnout, McCain is sunk and has been sunk this whole time. (I live in suburban Texas.) It was AMAZING how many people were there, we couldn't even move (we filled a middle school cafeteria and both the gyms). And I was one of just a handful of white people there.

Edited to add that was just from TWO precincts. Two. We had to use the whole cafeteria (which was huge and we filled it wall to wall with bodies) and BOTH huge gyms and the gyms were wall to wall with bodies, too. I sat there thinking "DAMN, this many Democrats LIVE AROUND ME??? Where the hell has everyone been most years???"

[Cha]

27. Good to hear about no

matter what happens in Texas!

[Cyrano]

22. It ain't over until Limbaugh the Pig squeals that::

"The black guy stole it!"

"The socialists stole it!"

When we hear these words coming from his hate-filled snout, we'll know we've won big.

[Raster]

24. And Flush "the squealer" Limpballs has a lot to squeal about.

Methinks an Obama Justice Department is not going to look the other way at Mr. Limpballs drug "issues" the way that a bush* Justice Department has. All across this country people have gone to prison--for a long fucking time--for the same things Limpballs has done. An Obama Justice Department means the Oxy-Rush gravy train has reached the end of the line. And I guarantee, once there are some good, hard charges ready to be leveled at Flush, people will come out of the woodwork to add their accusations. Flush is NOT a popular man.

[Raster]

23. It is no longer about stealing the Presidency. No one would believe it, or for that matter

support it. There will be a multitude of low-level shenanigans, but nothing on par with 2000, 2002 or 2004. America will not support the fraud this time. In addition, the Obama campaign has made it very clear they plan on pursuing criminal charges against all persons suspected of electoral fraud. The burden of proof will be on those to prove they did not steal the election, not prove they did. The odds are very very good that for the next four years--at least and hopefully eight, God willing--we will see an Obama/Biden Justice Department. And that justice department will be decidedly unfriendly to the usual rethuglican electoral bullshit. No one is going to want to spend time in a federal prison to get John McCain elected. Not going to happen.

However, keeping a filibuster-proof Senate out of Democratic hands is worth perhaps taking a bullet. A Democratic President is all but a given at this point. A strongly Democrat-majority Congress is scaring the rethuglican high command half to death.

[Jennicut]

32. We know so much more than we did on 2000. Obama has his lawyers ready.

[Raster]

34. Absolutely. And the fact that this will not be a complicit Justice Department does not bode well

for electoral fraud. The entire country--even the entire world--expects electoral fraud. If McBush* somehow gets elected, they'll have to prove THEY DID NOT STEAL IT.

[knixphan]

25. Go for the blowout.

Keep pushing, I want these pukes demoralized on the 5th.

I want freerepublic to implode.

I want to see Buchanan cry.

Keep pushing.

[Occam Bandage]

28. It ain't over 'till 270.

[SeeHopeWin]

43. Thank you!!!

[sarahdemva]

30. I WONT STOP FIGHTING TILL WE ARE VICTORIOUS!!

no let up from me!! i will be alert till nov 05!!

[Essene]

35. that last bit highlights how the GOP will respond... by the way...

Clinton beat Bush by 5.6% and Dole by 8.5%

See where i'm going with that? Imagine being a Fox news guy... and trying to downplay the importance and strength of this, while the rest of the media screams "LANDSLIDE!!!"

[yellowcanine]

36. Only place I disagree is on early voting. Early voters are set, not likely to switch anyway,

Anyone who is doubtful about their vote is not going to vote early, imo.

[SeeHopeWin]

42. He was talking baout some BIG event causing them to switch, even they want to

they can't...

[babylonsister]

37. Now this, and reports like it, will make this election very hard to

steal. :woohoo:

[Tim4319]

39. Let us not get too complacent!

[Orlandodem]

40. KEEP FIGHTING!!! IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL THE VOTES ARE COUNTED n.t

[SeeHopeWin]

41. Cook was MSNBC few minutes ago...He confirmed he respected the PEW poll, showing Obama + 14!!!

Seeing Obama at over 50 in the PWE, ABC, and now NBC just confirms what we all know....