Why is VA outperforming OH and FL?

[StrongBad]

I posted this question as a reply to a thread yesterday and wanted to get other opinions. It would seem that based on past elections that VA would have been harder to flip compared to FL and OH which were extremely close last cycle.

So why the sudden momentum toward Obama this election while the other two states remain a tossup?

[Bicoastal]

1. Magic.

:shrug:

[YOY]

2. Two words: Northern Virginia.

Next to DC. Diverse and high population. Left leaning. Lots of middle class money.

Arlington and Alexandria and outward are blue turning Red as you get to podunk.

I'm from Ohio and living in NOVA. There is no equivalent.

[kansasblue]

8. agreed. You get close to DC and VA is big city. Very blue.

[Lilith Velkor]

29. Two more: military families.

You don't need lots of money or fancy-ass degrees to notice that your cousin's legs are missing and your sister-in-law shot herself after coming back from her third tour.

[YOY]

30. I wholeheartedly agree and add two more.

Intelligence workers. They're not all Republicans. They can smell bullshit faster than anyone because they have access to facts that few do.

I've know some DAMN liberal CIA folks.

[Lilith Velkor]

31. I met one of those guys.

He gave me an Impeach Cheney T-shirt, which I'm wearing as I type.

Even the not-so-liberal ones are pissed off at the Republicans these days.

[Lucky 13]

3. Many factors, but I think mostly.... THE MILITARY

Virginia Beach area is a huge military town, northern virginia has lots of military too. We are pulling in military families quite well. Colin Powell will only help with this.

Also, Richmond, Virginia Beach, Norfolk all have higher than average percentage of african americans. They have been working hard to get organized and get people registered. This is paying off. The organizers there are doing a GREAT job.

[Fire_brand]

4. McCain only recently started paying attention to VA

Obama was blanketing the state with ads, building his organization, opening campaign offices, and had volunteers working in the state for months (and this was building on the infastructure he already had in place to win the primary by 20 points). McCain didn't realize VA was in trouble until it was way too late.

But he's been competing hard in FL and OH in the very beginning, those were the 2 most obvious battlegrounds. At one point FL was the only state where McCain had more offices than Obama (not sure if this is still true).

[Alhena]

5. Federal workers in Northern Va- see McCain's promise to freeze federal spending

[HughMoran]

6. Freakin' NC is outperforming OH & FL. Yesterday polls - PPP O+7, Ras O+3

I think we'll just have to see how it all turns out - polling is a inexact science.

[krawhitham]

7. Two words: Ralph Stanley

[Jennicut]

9. I could sense great support for Obama in NC and VA way back in the primaries

More college educated folks/military support there. Military does not like McLame not so surprisingly as Iraq has been a huge burden on them.

[El Fuego]

10. There is record new voter registration in Virginia, mostly young

voters who are thought likely to vote for Obama.

http://cavalierdaily.com/news/2008/oct/17/virginia-sees-record-voter-registration/

[rateyes]

11. I think it's Southwest Virginia, to be honest.

Coal Miner's Union. Those people are hurting, and they know who is to blame. I used to live there, and Democrats do get elected there depending on the message.

[Jennicut]

21. Wow, didn't think about that. Is that why West VA has been surpriringly close as well?

[rateyes]

25. Could be. People, in this economy will vote their pocketbooks.

[rufus dog]

12. VA has a higher education rank than the others

http://www.statestats.com/edrank.htm

[kwolf68]

15. Damn...

My state is making me proud....up to #6...next target? Those REALLY SMART Northeastern Liberal states. :)

[1corona4u]

16. That's a fucked up thing to point out....

I resent it too. Not everyone in the state of Florida is a republickin, and a dumb shit. :mad:

[rufus dog]

22. Take it easy sparky

I was educated in AZ and live in CA. 50 and 47. Bums me out CA has fallen so much.

Edit: The point is that higher educated/higher income people are trending toward Dems. Kerry won the college educated/over 100k demographic in 2004, Obama will likely have even a higher spread with this group. Makes sense that NC is trending better for Dems also.

[1corona4u]

23. Well, I was educated in AZ, NM, and MO.....

but sometimes it's not about being 'book smart'. In fact, I've found that my 'street smarts' have gotten me way further than the book smart ever would have.

[rufus dog]

26. The issue is that Joe the Plumber thinks he is street smart also

he attends the University of Rush along with Sean Hannity Grad School and thinks he is a genius. Independent thinking, striving to obtain more information is always going to help the Liberal cause. Group think, regurgitation is always going to help the Conservative cause. It doesn't apply to everyone living a state, a city, even a neighborhood, just a guideline.

[YDogg]

13. We're slow in FL

[1corona4u]

14. Oh, cut the crap.

In Florida yesterday, there were 54% dems turned out to vote, where there were only 30% republickins. This is just skewed reporting/polling.

[progressivebydesign]

17. People here have been pushing the Florida slipping meme, even tho it's a FOX news poll...

Honestly, people need to be more choosy about the polls they believe. I looked at Pollster and had to laugh at the variety of polls they're using.. and the one poll that has thrown things into a tizzy is FOX NEWS poll. Florida is not doing that badly. Don't believe everything you read.

[Orangepeel]

18. Northern Virginia is almost Maryland

Southern Ohio is almost Kentucky

:-)

[Captiosus]

19. Ok, I'm sick of Virginia's change being all on "Northern Virginia"

Here's the Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election county results.
Winner: Kaine (D), Votes: 1,025,942, Popular Vote Percentage: 51.7%
Loser: Kilgore (R), Votes: 912,327, Popular Vote Percentage: 46.0%



Northern VA isn't the only urban area in Virginia which has been growing.
Richmond, Charlottesville, Hampton Roads Metro.. the 2010 Census will be very telling.
Growth here in the Newport News-Hampton-Norfolk Interstate 64 corridor has been so rapid in the last 4 years that we have a transportation crisis and massive gridlock on roads because the State never expected to see this much traffic this fast.

If these cities and counties stay blue (there's some question about VA Beach, it tends to stay red during presidential elections), then Virginia is guaranteed to be blue. Even if Virginia Beach turns red, I doubt it will be enough to change Virginia red because in 05, Kaine won this race by 5.7% of the popular vote.

Edit: Holy bad grammar, Batman!

[marions ghost]

24. thanks for posting the map!

My sister is killing herself working for Obama in southeastern VA. Thanks for blowing the myth that it's all about Northern VA.

:thumbsup:

[Captiosus]

27. No problem.

It's thanks, in large part, to people like your sister. :)

On the lighter side, this finally gives me the map I needed for a proper "Nancy Pfotenhauer's Virginia" sig banner. :woohoo:

[Aloha Spirit]

28. I'll add for consideration demographics:as a % of eligible voters, VA has twice as many minorities.

From online sources, it seems that Ohio is 15% and Virginia is 30%.

[rvablue]

20. Ever since Mark Warner became governor 6-7 years ago...

VA has been ranked as one of the healthiest economies in the nation.

Millions of people flocked here from the northeast and from all over the country because of excellent job prospects and low housing costs.

Of course, things aren't as good here just like the rest of the country.