GW/Battleground Poll: Obama 48 - McCain 47 -- holy...

[nickn777]

No joke here folks, no more complacency. I actually think this is GOOD news. People were getting too cocky...my fear is that some Obama supporters will stay home and figure its in the bag...hopefully, this will blunt that feeling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[DarthDem]

1. Please, Stop

The GWU Battleground poll is a well-known joke.

No one is complacent.

[demokatgurrl]

35. But thanks for helping fire us all up!! n/t

[Bicoastal]

2. OUT, lier!

[Stuckinthebush]

44. Or...OUT! Liar!

:D

[YOY]

3. That's even less reliable than Ras.

n.t.

[Blondiegrrl]

8. I've never even heard of that poll. (GW I mean, not Ras) n/t

[regnaD kciN]

17. They're a FIVE-DAY tracker with a daily sample of 200...

...and they don't poll on weekends.

If you look at their graph, you'll see that today's results threw out the last of the samples for when Obama had his rise up to a 13-point lead, and then quickly declined thereafter. That suggests that the "bad" days for Obama were really early-middle last week, when he was also doing poorly in Gallup. As those start to fall off (over the course of the next week, because of the five-day/no-weekend structure), you should see the margin grow again.

Nonetheless, the very structure of this poll seems to make it highly unreliable.

[scheming daemons]

4. That link has 10 polls.... 9 of which have Obama up between 4 and 10

And you focus on the 10th?



Sorry..... outlier.

[HughMoran]

5. I was wondering who would have the cajones to post this poll

lol

[nickn777]

9. LOL....i would rather post all polls, not just ones we like!

[regnaD kciN]

18. Whereas you, OTOH, only post the poll we don't like...

...or is it the poll you like? Huh?

[nickn777]

30. Oh please...i posted the 10 point rasmussen virginia poll...

when it came out yesterday.....

[Schulzz]

6. This is the strangest poll ever.

They were the only poll who had McCain in the lead a week after the financial crisis started. And 2 week's ago they were the tracking poll with Obama's best result. I didn't trust them when they had Obama up by 13 and I don't trust them now.

[yourguide]

7. I had a member of this board scream at me fuck the undecideds,

we dont need them.

If he's reading this, I hope he's changed his mind.

every vote counts.

[Teaser]

22. every vote counts, but this poll doesn't

it's grossly in error.

[SuperTrouper]

10. This is the poll that we should have in our minds. It is an outlier but we need

to work to improve this poll. Do not pay too much attention to Gallup, Zogby, and Research2000, we should work always as if Battleground, RNCsmussen and TIPP are the correct ones and if we win in those polls then we will be in good shape. remember, only 14 days to election and McCain pretty much conceded Iowa, Michigan, Colorado and New Mexico and is in dire straits in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Good reality check and 14 days to go... :)

[phleshdef]

11. You are worse than Chuck Todd. POST THE WHOLE THING!

Rasmussen Reports 10/18 - 10/20 3000 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/18 - 10/20 1211 LV 2.9 50 42 Obama +8

CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5

Hotline/FD 10/17 - 10/19 789 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5

Gallup (Traditional)* 10/17 - 10/19 2340 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5

Gallup (Expanded)* 10/17 - 10/19 2271 LV 2.0 52 43 Obama +9

ABC News/Wash Post 10/16 - 10/19 1336 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9

GWU/Battleground 10/14 - 10/20 1000 LV 3.1 48 47 Obama +1

IBD/TIPP 10/15 - 10/19 1086 LV 3.0 47 41 Obama +6

[nickn777]

12. For Christ's sake, why am I being yelled at??

I posted the link to the WHOLE thing!! This is the first poll that has the race this tight. I posted it to demonstrate how fucking close this race is...i am sick of hearing people say, "oh, this will be a blowout..."...if people keep saying that, then people that were soft supporters planning to vote, might just say, "why even bother, I already know the outcome....?".....

[DarthDem]

13. Dude

Ease off on the profanity, k? We can hear you. And we know you're not really our friend. :hi:

[nickn777]

16. LOL...wow.

[progressivebydesign]

34. "lay off the profanity"? Lol. this is DU, ALL my posts are laced with profanity. All 13,000+ of them

I don't think most of us could post political stuff without it.

That's a pretty nasty-ass way to welcome someone here. I have no idea why people take such pleasure in attacking new people on DU. If they are trollish, they will be found out soon enough -- otherwise, you're being a jerk toward someone that may not know the culture here, that it's not a good idea to post the poll with the lowest numbers.. even if the point was trying to keep people from talking about "blow outs" and "landslides" and those here that insist on talking about champagne (as though they forget the horror that was Election Day 2004.

[nickn777]

45. Thanks!

[DarthDem]

49. Good For You!

I sort of like making points without the profanity. :-) YMMV. As for the rest of your post, methinks your ConcernTrollDetector needs fixing.

[regnaD kciN]

15. Thank you for your "concern"...

...so much concern, and such a low post count!

:eyes:

[FloridaGrl]

20. Yeah but I cannot see through your logic

We want an overall picture of the race not just one or two polls saying the race is close or not. Furthermore have you checked out the EVs (that's what is most important)?
I too warn against complacency but we need the whole picture to make our judgment. Plus, we all know that this isn't over until Nov 4th.

[uponit7771]

23. It's real hard to get people to concentrate on EV's.

[nickn777]

28. Ok, fair enough......

i see your point.....I just don't like some accusing me of being anything other than an Obama supporter due to the fact that I have a low post count and I posted a poll that was showing a tighter race.....

[abbiehoff]

37. You're being yelled at because you're new to DU.

There appear to be many people here who automatically assume that anyone without 1000+ posts must be a troll.

[nickn777]

46. That has to change......

you can't get to 1000 posts in a week! :-)

[phleshdef]

48. I did the yelling there and I have less posts than you.

I just don't like the cherry picked poll that has nothing in common with the other 9 found at the source. Why bring that up without mentioning the others?

[WeDidIt]

14. The new GREAT FREEP HOPE Poll!

It's an outlier when you compare to all of the others.

[SuperTrouper]

29. They threw under the bus the following polls: Gallup, TIPP, CNN, WaPo, Newsweek,

Hotline, Research2000, even RNCsmussen...LOL!! Freepers and Senorita Drudge are pathetic and desperate. Let's see how long it takes for Freepers and Senorita to discard GW Battleground, too.

[The Stranger]

19. Where are those DUers who couldn't fucking help themselves but had to ask what champagne to buy?

God, I can't motherfucking stand those people.

[Teaser]

21. Right here. Couldn't make up my mind, so I'm buying all of them

.

[The Stranger]

24. Good for you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7543186

[Teaser]

25. In fact, I'm popping the corks as we speak

Won't be time to consume it all on the 4th.

[sandnsea]

31. You've donated the max to the campaign?

And to others who need help, either in your district or across the country?

[Teaser]

33. Yes, 100%. And am now buying Cuban Cigars

and hookers to light them for me.

[DeepBlueDem]

26. They must polled "real" America

[high density]

27. Pat Buchanan, is that you?

LOL

[Ikonoklast]

32. You concern is noted.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

36. somebody ordering pizza?

[progressivebydesign]

38. Welcome to DU's trial by fire. Guess you've figured out low post #s earn you a lot of abuse...

.. unless you post things about unicorns and daisies, or you post nasty things about McPalin.

I think you're an Obama supporter. I don't think you're a troll. I'm often in these threads when a newbie is attacked because they didn't understand the culture here yet, and I'm the one giving that benefit of the doubt. Attacking new people has sadly become sport here. Wasn't always that way.. and the irony is that I predate 90% of these posters that prey on newbies.

So.. the word is that, as a new poster, it's best to be careful in how you present your concerns... well.. apparently concern is a dirty word here, so scratch that. Don't share your concerns on DU, tell them to the grocery checker, or your bf. Seriously. The reason people get worked up here is that thing called "Concern trolls" that come here and post negative things to try and screw with the morale on DU. So when a new person does it they're automatically suspect in some people's eyes. The ironic thing is that in my 7 years here, the people that turned out to be trolls fell in two categories: the ones that joined and flamed out within 20 posts, and then the ones that posted right alongside us for months and months only to be found out later to be complete frauds. Most of the newbies that I've defended and schooled, like this, are still happy and contributing members of DU today.

Oh, about that profanity thing someone slammed you for. Disregard. We swear like sailors here. Occasionally, someone will try to clean up our language with a complaint thread, but the profanity laced replies are so funny and biting that they give up.

So.. welcome! Hope to see you around here for a long time!

p.s. remember post about happy bunnies, cute kittens, and pie. Pie is very popular here! :grouphug:

[DefenseLawyer]

39. Do they pay you to fuck that bear? n/t

[mvd]

40. I think there's no way Obama has gone down like that

No other poll shows such a decline.

[Jennicut]

41. Please don't anyone call nickn777 a troll but Battleground is a well

known Rethug poll. I have watched this poll for a long time. It is run by the Tarrance Group and their client list was all Rethugs. Check out their client list: http://www.tarrance.com/whowedoitfor/politicallist.html
They took a long long time to evengive Obama a lead when every other poll gave him one in Sept, even slower than that molasses poll Rasmussen. All polls have fluctuations but this is too wild to be taken seriously. That being said, nickn777, lighten up with the complacency thing. Its kind of not needed when everyone here wants Obama to win.

[Doctor_J]

42. Thanks for your concern

Did you order a pizza?

[Essene]

43. people with sub-500 posts should be unable to start new topics this month

for their own safety and for our collective sanity.

:)

[S_E_Fudd]

47. It has a weird sample...

Covers 10/14 - 10/20 exclusive of weekends...

And the have a low D to R ratio...

They simply use a different model so their trends will look different at times, peaking when other are tanking and vice versa.

[Zynx]

50. Yeah, you pick the biggest B.S. poll out there.

You are either a troll or stupid.

[bigwillq]

51. The polls are going to tighten

whether they actually do or not.

The teevee stations need ratings. Ratings=Money.

[Mass]

52. I agree with no complacency, but please stop focusing on each individual poll.

[ddeclue]

53. Yeah but this is pretty clearly an outlier...

look at all the other polls..they are far closer to the WSJ poll.

[lessthanjake]

54. The people here are a tad bit insane

A thread can be made on a single poll showing Obama ahead by a lot, but if a thread is made about a single poll showing Obama ahead by only a little then there are choruses of "THIS IS JUST ONE POLL!!! YOU DIDNT POST THE OTHER ONES YOU TERRIBLE TROLL!!!!! LEAVE NOWWWWWWW1111111111111"

Dont worry about it. This is sorta a place where people go to feel good about Democrats, so its looked down upon to post bad results of polls, even if that seems somewhat hypocritical.

However, with that said, I am baffled by the Battleground poll myself. People here are pointing out that they took much longer to show an Obama lead back in September, showing a McCain lead when other polls had Obama ahead by a lot. However, that was due to their WAY off calculations of the number of young voters. Since then, they have fixed these weightings, and at one point even had Obama ahead by 13. This is an erratic poll, I guess, but losing 12 points in a poll over a couple weeks is still something to be concerned about, even if every other poll shows better results. Yes, Battleground's poll IS an outlier, BUT all these polls use different methodologies. WE DO NOT KNOW WHICH METHODOLOGY IS RIGHT. The outlier could be correct. This SHOULD worry us.