Voter Surge Signals Obama Tsunami

[babylonsister]

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/trailmix/2008/10/voter-surge-signals-obama-tsun.html

Voter Surge Signals Obama Tsunami

By Craig Crawford | October 21, 2008 3:00 AM


Massive numbers of new and early voters suggest the emergence of a radically different electorate favoring the Democrats.

vote_machine.jpgOverall, 13 battleground states have already received 3.4 million new registrations as of Oct. 14, compared to 1.8 million new registrations in 2004. More on CQ Politics.

To see how this could improve Barack Obama's chances, consider Gallup's alternative surveys for a traditional turnout versus the expanded turnout that appears to be developing. Turnout of likely voters who look like those who made it to the ballot box four years ago yields a five-point lead for Obama over Republican John McCain, according to Gallup.

But when Gallup models an expanded electorate comprised of more new voters and increased numbers of those who have not showed up in the past, Obama jumps to a nine-point lead. (Each model found 4 percent of those surveyed to be undecided.)

Dramatic increases in registration indicate that Gallup's broader model could be closer to the mark, pointing to an Obama landslide that might look more like a tsunami.

[Window]

1. I'll take it, but I won't be satisfied until Nov. 4-5.

[babylonsister]

2. Me, too.

I have to see this happen with my own eyes to believe it after the past two elections, but I remain forever hopeful.

[sharp_stick]

3. Exactly,

I can't wait for the next two weeks to be over. This part of election season always drives me nuts.

[Fed Up]

4. Obama losing seems unlikely at this point.

Not impossible, but unlikely.

It is time for true optimism. The favorable winds are blowing our way, and have been for this whole campaign, frankly.

[BlooInBloo]

5. Like the proverbial boxer said: "I can only see the fight going one way - my way....

of course, how it will *actually* go, I can't say."