"Obama blowing McCain away in early voting. Building cushion that will be difficult to overcome"

[Liberal_in_LA]

http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/88260/New-Polls-10.20.08:-NC,-VA,-CO,-OH,-FL,-MO,-PA,-MN,-GA,-National.htm

But again, the thing here is that Obama only needs one of these states. If he wins Virginia and loses the rest of the swing states, he wins. If he wins North Carolina and loses the rest of the swing states, he wins. If he wins Colorado and loses the rest of the swing states, he wins. If he wins Missouri and loses the rest of the swing states, he wins. If he wins either Ohio or Florida and loses the rest of the swing states, he wins. And he is currently ahead in all of them and, at worst, tied in Ohio and Florida.

So what does McCain do now? First, he needs to withdraw from Pennsylvania. He isn't going to win the state and he is wasting his time and money there. McCain won't win any blue states this year. His only chance to win now rests in defending all the red states that are in play. Nate makes a good point that I agree with, and that is that McCain should also start pulling some resources out of Ohio. Not because he can't win the state, but because Ohio seems to be a bit stubborn for both candidates. It doesn't appear as if either candidate is going to change Ohio's toss up status before election day. McCain should pull resources out, gamble that Obama won't be able to put Ohio away, and allocate those resources to the other states he has to defend, particularly Colorado and Virginia which are now starting to look like firewalls for Obama.

The other thing that needs to be stressed is that all signs indicate that Obama is blowing McCain away in early voting. This early voting cushion that Obama is now building up may prove to be too much for McCain to overcome. Particularly, these numbers out of Georgia are stunning. If African American turnout in Georgia remains above 30%, Obama will probably win the state. Right now, it's at 36%.

And here in is the problem for McCain. He just has too much ground to defend, is being outspent on TV ads, is being crushed in the ground war, and is so far behind that even if he makes up ground in a few states, as he seems to have done in Florida, he remains in position to lose in a landslide.

[bluestateguy]

1. It's called October Surprise insurance

Bag the early votes as insurance against last minute dirty tricks and bin Laden videos.

[Colobo]

2. I'm lovin' it!

[Liberal_in_LA]

4. Me too!

[tblue]

5. That graphic is hi-larious!!!

:rofl:

[flygal]

13. aww damn - I hadn't seen that - your posts should have a warning!!

:rofl:

[MrModerate]

3. Here's another McCain problem:

He's run an historically shitty campaign: abandoning his principles (which were, faux or not, really all he brought to the party), staging lame stunts that fell flat, hopping half-assedly from issue to issue, selecting possibly the least qualified running mate in all of republicandom, and being pissed off all the time.

He can't fix a broken campaign and a bankrupt reputation in the time he has left. Even with Obama in Hawaii, there's just not much he can do.

[tblue]

7. Yep. Can you name anything the McC campaign has done right?

[ContinentalOp]

10. Botch the campaign so he wouldn't have to be the one to clean up the mess his party created?

:shrug:

[tblue]

12. I'm gonna post this as an OP. I mean, good question, huh?

[blue-kite]

6. Good analysis... good points.... good news... nuff said.

[Waiting For Everyman]

8. K&R

[speedoo]

9. Fun read! nt

[autorank]

11. You're right about turnout.

Glad you're pointing that out. This election is different. It's at the end of 8 years of Hell.

VA, NC + GA. Wouldn't that be great.

Here's information on the variation between 2004 and 2008 primary turnout.


(+) No NC primary in 2004, figure is an estimate.
http://usacoup.scoop.co.nz/?p=722

Those new Primary voters are all the difference. They can't be turned away, they know where the
polls are, they're registered and they're more likely than newly registered voters to show up.
Georgia looks good. Black citizens represent 27% of the states population, so 36% is rokken.

[Liberal_in_LA]

14. Great chart. Thanks for the info.

[autorank]

17. Welcome

We need to be ready with this in case they screw with this one. I don't think they can. Too many votes to hide. But you never know.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4273642

[bushisanidiot]

15. I think Rove is sabotaging McPanic by putting him in PA and pulling out of

red states. It's Clinton/Dole all over again.

[Cha]

16. mccain needs to get on tv more and whine..

oh wait, that's impossible..the corporatemediawhore$$ are giving him all the air space he needs.