There is NO sense in McCain quitting Colorado and doubling down in Pennsylvania. None.

[Bicoastal]

Heard the news on CNN? Apparently McCain's campaign has "given up" on Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado--states which, together with the Kerry states, would hand Obama the election even if he turns no other Red States Blue. He's going to try and eke out a win in Pennsylvania instead...

...but the only problem is, Pennsylvania hasn't been close for more than a month. The always reliable electoral-vote.com has it as dark blue, an average of 53% to 39% Obama--meaning that some recent polls have the margin even higher. Intrade has it almost as Navy Blue as neighboring New York--it's trading at 90% Obama, 11% McCain. Assuming these sources are correct, it would take a truly Herculean effort to turn the Keystone State red. Whether this is due to native son Joe Biden's support, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh's guaranteed heavy turnout, both, or neither--it's a lock for Obama and everyone but McCain seems to know it.

But what REALLY makes this a dumb decision is that McCain is barely holding onto North Carolina and Missouri, trailing marginally in Ohio and Florida and trailing SIGNIFICANTLY in Virginia and Nevada. Electorally speaking, Obama doesn't actually NEED Pennsylvania if he wins Ohio, or if he wins Florida. Or Virginia and Nevada, for that matter. Or North Carolina and Missouri. Or North Carolina and Nevada. Or...

So in order to loosen Obama's grip on Pennsylvania, McCain would have to turn a dark blue state pink in 2 weeks. The only possible way to do that is to divert nearly ALL resources to Pennsylvania; McCain and his entire campaign would essentially have to run for President of Pennsylvania to even have a chance. And that would mean leaving Virginia exposed and unattended. And Florida. And Ohio. And...

So you know what I think? I think McCain's just trying to save face. I think he's resting his 73-year-old bones by avoiding states he'd really have to commit an effort to, while blithely competing in a state he knows he won't win--after all, his tarnished legacy will look better than mediocre if he at least got close in Pennsylvania. (It's also the reason why Palin, who's thinking ahead to 2012 (shudder), desperately wants to keep campaigning in "lost states.") And I think he's praying for a disaster to strike Obama's campaign, knowing full well that anything short of a dead girl or live boy (to use an old expression) would most likely deliver the election to Obama in any scenario.

In short, I think John McCain has given up.

[tazkcmo]

1. Good n/t

[Thrill]

2. NO thats not it. The internals probably look like shit in Colorado. But although the polls in PA

are good. Everyone I know who lives in PA. Thinks that its the one state where people may actually be underestimating the racism there.

Bottom Line. He's depending on the racist there to win it for him

[RagAss]

8. yes..it's a racist strategy......

[Deep13]

10. Thanks Nixon! Racism: the curse that keeps on taking.

Anyone who won't vote for Obama because he's black deserves McCain.

[OhioBlue]

19. Bingo. Plus some of the media markets bleed over into Ohio

and WV - the parts of Ohio that Obama will have the hardest time in.

[ecstatic]

23. Racism there must be horrible if both Murtha and Rendell described

their own constituents as racist. Plus the guy I know from there paints a bad picture too.

[arcos]

3. Not only is PA not even close...

But the Democrats have won the state in the last four elections. It is always a close state, but I'd say you could remove it from the "historically swing state" category and call it a light blue state.

[scheming daemons]

4. A) It's cheaper to work hard for ONE state and B) Rev Wright won't work in Mountain West states...

..but it MIGHT work in PA.

C) PA doesn't have early voting.... so if McCain can change the narrative in PA before the election, he thinks he can turn it.


In short... it is easier for him to go dirty, robo-call, and work on ONE state ... PA... than to try to win NM and CO.


PA is the second oldest (in terms of demographics) state in the union (behind Florida).


If ever there was a state where the Ayers and Wright stuff could work, it is here.


That said.... there is no way McCain will overcome a 500,000 to 700,000 shortfall in the Philly area by winning the rest of the state. He can't make up that many votes.


Unless he uses ACORN lawsuits to invalidate PA's election.


I think his goal is thus: If he loses by less than 21 electoral votes, he can make PA be for him what Florida was for Gore and Ohio SHOULD HAVE BEEN for Kerry.... a single state in which to contest the election.


If he loses by more than 21 electoral votes, then he'll have to challenge TWO states.



It isn't a coincidence that the GOP filed a suit against ACORN in PA last week.

[iceman66]

17. Either that

or he somehow knows he can steal PA.

[MindMatter]

18. But it is also cheaper for Obama to pound McCain hard in one state

If McCain is out of IA, MI, WI, MN, CO, and NW, then that allows Obama to concentrate his $150,000,000 on OH, PA, VA, FL, WV, and maybe some in GA.

[jrockford]

30. Still see a ton of McCain ads here in MN...then Coleman ads. Yay for MN. nt

[trudyco]

5. Do they have electronic voting there? nt

[blitzen]

6. because he has ZERO chance without PA....

and maybe a 5-10 percent chance of winning PA. So he's down to his last roll of the dice, and the odds ain't good.

[Deep13]

13. Even if he somehow takes PA...

...McC still can't win.

[fed_up_mother]

7. But it's easier to steal one state than three. sigh

Were the exit polls wrong in Pennsylvania the last two elections?

[stillcool]

33. DRE's in PA, with no paper...

and ACORN is getting sued there.

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&topic_string=5std&ec=mixed&year=2008&state=Pennsylvania

[Thrill]

9. He can't win anything without Missouri.

[Bicoastal]

27. You're right--I realized later that McCain CAN lose Virginia if he wins Pennsylvania...

...however, Virginia combined with NEVADA puts us over the top if we lose Pennsylvania. Which we won't.

[ClassWarrior]

11. He's not. I don't know why anyone here still believes anything that comes...

...out of the McLiar camp.

:eyes:

NGU.

[Cha]

20. Exactly...mccain and his thugs are

thinking of ways to steal the election right now.

[ClassWarrior]

21. One good way is to sow the seeds complacency among your opponent's mighty volunteer corps.

NGU.

[The Stranger]

12. He gets more bang for his buck and can blanket Pennsylvania easier than the other three.

Either that, or they know they can steal Pennsylvania and use this big "move" as cover for the theft after it is done.

[kath]

16. Really makes me wonder if they're planning to steal PA.

[Kdillard]

14. Nothing John McCain has done throughout this campaign has

made any sense so why would he change direction now. He is just wasting resources that could be put to better use.

[Recursion]

15. No. He's just out of his league.

He's fighting Iraq like it was Vietnam. And he's fighting McCain/Obama 2008 like it was Goldwater/Johnson 1964.

I hate to bring up the generational stuff that had everybody here hot and bothered during the primaries, but he's stuck like a lot of people his age are. He's stuck in 40 years ago. And given what he's been through, on a personal level he has a right to be. What we don't recollect we re-enact, etc.

He imagines conservatism is on the upswing; it is not. But it has been through all of his life.

[Eric J in MN]

25. Barry Goldwater lost. Why would McCain want to make that campaign...

...his model?

[Recursion]

26. Goldwater won... in 1968 and again in 1980

He was also the best argument the GOP had in 1964. And he launched a generation-long conservative movement that has in the past 3 years collapsed on all sides of us. McCain is still stuck there; stuck imagining that conservatism is out of power, out of favor, just needing the right messenger to evangelize it.

[Phredicles]

22. To paraphrase Homer Simpson, He did it 'cause he's stupid; that's why

everyone does everything.

[Eric J in MN]

24. Has Bill Clinton given a speech in PA since the Democratic Convention? NT

NT

[sampsonblk]

28. McCain's only has one play left in his playbook

Hail Mary.

That's it. To try to analyze his strategy any further than that is futile.

[smoogatz]

29. Could be a head-fake.

Could be a Hail Mary. Could be their last, best shot. But they haven't given up: they know they're going to lose VA and probably MO; their thinking is that the demographics in PA are slightly less negative for them, and if they can pull it out there's a lot of electoral votes to be won. But yeah, it seems a little desperate. Their internal polling must be god-awful.

[Hippo_Tron]

31. It could work if Obama wasn't sitting on piles of cash

But the Obama campaign is so well funded that he could buy up all of the available airtime between now and the election in Pennsylvania and pay people to canvass every single Democratic voter in the state on election day and he would still have enough left over to outspend McSame in the close states.

[spag68]

32. McCain

It could work if the moon turned purple, or if Tom Cruise and Travolta and their mothership landed. Don't seem much chance of that happening, so his chances are between Slim and none, and Slim left town.

[democracy1st]

34. The Genius of the TeamObama's aggressive campaign

has forced McCain to defend states normally in the red,therefore totally putting a real drag on competing in toss up states

[amborin]

35. makes perfect sense, acccording to yesterday's ny times:

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7534721&mesg_id=7534721>

[Anarcho-Socialist]

36. He's toast

and this hare-brained scheme is the only electoral route left for him.

[briv1016]

37. It doesn't make any sense.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php