Kevin Drum: The Upcoming GOP Civil War

[BurtWorm]

Interesting line of thought from Kevin Drum at Mother Jones. (It is striking, considering the frothing right-wing mess the McCain-Palin campaign has become, to remember that McCain was urged on Republicans because his "maverick" credentials would supposedly appeal to "centrists" and independents.):

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2008/10/the_upcoming_gop_civil_war.html

THE UPCOMING GOP CIVIL WAR.....After every election, the losing party conducts a civil war. Sometimes it's a big war, sometimes it's a small one, but the subject is usually the same: Did we lose because we failed to appeal to enough moderates? Or did we lose because we failed to uphold our heritage and give the voters a real choice? The arguments are so similar on both sides that even the terminology is often the same. Liberals refer to their party's centrists as DINOs (Democrats In Name Only) and Republicans refer to theirs as RINOs. Republican conservative stalwarts say, "If the choice is between a Democrat and a Democrat-lite, the public will choose the real thing every time." Switch the party affiliation and you get the same thing from liberal Democrats.

So what happens this time around? It's a little hard to keep this in mind at this point, but John McCain was widely considered the most electable Republican this year because of his mavericky politics and appeal to independents. He had moderate cred on immigration, campaign finance reform, and judicial nominees, and though he had a conservative voting record he had never been a committed culture warrior. If you thought that moving toward the center was the right strategy for the Republican Party after eight years of George Bush, McCain was your man.

So if he loses, what happens? Conservatives will have the upper hand, no? We tried a moderate, they'll say, and he crashed and burned. After all, if the choice is between a Democrat and a Democrat-lite etc. etc.

And that in turn suggests that instead of undergoing a long, slow moderation of their positions after this year's election, they'll go in the other direction. Their argument will be simple and compelling: the McCain strategy didn't work. The country is hungering for real conservatism, and that's the only way we can win. Hell, the only thing that even gave McCain a chance this year was his selection of Sarah Palin, the only real conservative on the ticket.

So this suggests an eye-popping state of affairs: after eight years of George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Karl Rove making them into the most unpopular party in recent history, the GOP will decide that the best response to this is to become even more conservative. I can hardly wait to see how this plays out.

[RollWithIt]

1. I think in the end, they might just blame the economic meltdown first...

And individuals in the party second. But who knows.

[Bake]

2. I think it's a valid point.

What the Pugs are missing, though, is the fact that America has gotten a stomachful of conservatism. The ideological, raw meat conservatism.

But I hope the Pukes do go that way. It will ensure that they remain irrelevant for decades.

Bake

[MissMarple]

3. When they lost to Wilson in 1912 and again in 1916,

they abandoned the progressive trend championed by Teddy Roosevelt. They became the "conservative" party of business and wealth. And we know how they reacted to the New Deal and again after the Goldwater loss in 1964. I would not be surprised at all if they go farther in this sorry direction.

Hopefully wiser heads will prevail and move the party in a saner direction. We can certainly benefit from conservative progressives, and a total melt down of the GOP will not serve the country well. They have to change for the better. But will they? They are so invested in the economic and cultural insanity they have wedded themselves to, that I believe change will be quite difficult. Other wise they will become the party of pseudo Libertarians, blatant opportunists, hate filled bigots, and religious nut cases. Not good, not good at all. Maybe we will get a third party representing the more pragmatic individuals on the Republican Main Street. I don't see it, but it could happen.

[BurtWorm]

4. The rabid right is not easily going to give up its grips

on the party that first let them taste power. The "moderates" in that party have found out how impossible those jackasses are to live with, but there aren't enough of them to take back the power. The only thing that would save the GOP now would be a Rapture just like the wingers picture it. Or a virus that somehow targets god-fearing gun-worshipping racist homophobes.

[grantcart]

6. While 1964 was a loss it was also a unifying experience - they came out

with a united philosophy that Reagan would eventually build on.

Now there is no unity - economic conservatives, security conservatives and establishment conservatives are all going to be at war with the more motivated and better orgainized religious right.


In rural red areas the religious right will completely take over the party.


thinking conservatives may have to look at the Libertarian Party.

[MissMarple]

9. They built an entire movement around their preferred economic policies.

Their economic philosophy started with the premise, "more for us" and they funded think tanks, started magazines, paid "scholars" to publish books, and promoted them into television interviews and radio talk shows. It was a brilliant effort and worked quite well for them. They probably thought the Laffer Curve idea was a gift from God, a sign that they were on the right track. Too bad about that reality based world and those inconvenient things called facts. In the end their greed will bring their party down. Many of the beneficiaries of this insane raid on the treasury and the American middle class will be just fine. I just hope they haven't ruined the country beyond repair.

[volstork]

16. I think you are correct

regarding the "religious" right. I was in the Smoky Mountains this past weekend, and believe me, it does not get more rural or red (in more ways than one) than that. It is both fascinating and nauseating to see broken-down trailer homes with "mccain/palin" signs in their front yards. Why people consistantly vote against their own best interests is a puzzle to me, but then again, I don't think Obama is a half-breed, baby-killing Muslin (sic) terrorist. These people would and WILL benefit beyond their wildest dreams from an Obama presidency, but they are too narrow-minded to realize it.

[BurtWorm]

25. Furthermore, in 1964, they were outsiders looking for a way to get in.

They've been in, mostly, since 1968. It's their turn to sit out now. Hopefully for as long as Dems have.

[political_Dem]

5. I couldn't be happier.

This election revealed that the GOP is rather schizophrenic in their platform. And now, while they struggle to find themselves, their power is neutralized. But, while they are going down this long, ugly spiral, expect them to drag everyone else into their misery. After all, the GOP always goes out with a bang.

[OmahaBlueDog]

7. Assuming Obama is elected, here is what follows in short order

1. The righty talkers will do first is make unsubstantiated accusations of vote fraud and fundraising impropriety on the part of the Democrats. This is pro forma.

2. The second thing the righty talkers will do is rip McSame a new one:
a) The righty talkers never liked him to begin with; they'll say McSame is really a RINO, which is why the GOP lost
b) McSame wouldn't take the talk show host's advice -- if only he'd been more strident about (fill in issue here) the GOP would have had a chance
c) If only the GOP had nominated someone like Sarah Failin'...if only.

3. The RNC chair will retire or resign. This is where it could get interesting, because this is where the first shots in the "battle to reclaim the soul of the party" are fired. I'm on record already that I think they're going to offer the job to Newt Gingrich, and ask him to be a high profile analog to Howard Dean. I also think this move will be made quickly. Whether he accepts is another story.

4. I don't know how bad their congressional losses will be, but I'm betting that all of the GOP house and senate leadership is out, and I'm betting that if Newt is the new RNC chair, he will handpick the replacements using his past criteria of perceived party loyalty and fundraising ability (as opposed to seniority). However, this will wait until the new congress in '09.

5. Look for a lot of political/publicity stunts by the GOP in early '09 as they will make continual attempts to derail Barack's first 100 days, and change the debate on the agenda. Look for a lot of talk by the GOP on the need for campaign finance reform, a need for more limited government, and a the pressing need for a Constitutional Convention to define marriage, protect the flag, install meaningful term limits, blah, blah, blah, blah. It will be political theater.

Long term, look for signs of fracture. The fundies will be rightfully indignant that the Republicans had the Presidency, and had Congress for most of that time, and that damned litle of their agenda has gotten done. I would not be surprised if Ralph Reed/Gary Bauer et. al. form either another party, or a party within the Republican party (kind of like the DLC). I also think that moderates (those few left) like Collins and Snowe may look at Independent status, or look at joining/forming an organization supportive of conservative fiscal policy, but that is not as strident on conservative social issues. The Ron Paul Revolution will also claim their stake in the new Republican future. These are young, essentially libertarian voters who are not necessarily on board with the "values voter" vision.

[genna]

24. #5 IS MY MAIN REASON for believing Obama needs a mixed governing coalition within the Executive

The newspapers are running stories about a liberal icon can govern a center right country. B.S.

The Republicans jammed their vision down our throats for 15 to 30 years. Look where it has gotten us. US v. THEM. Red v. Blue. So on and so forth.


Instead Obama needs a governing coalition around most of the issues that have failed to pass: health care, education, social security, war power/peace governance, corporate governance and fiscal regulation...

You name it. The tasks ahead are difficult and we need buy in (not so we get bent over a chair and taken against our will either).

[achtung_circus]

8. One way or another

it will be blood in the gutters as the Republicunts purge

AUX LANTERNES

[Essene]

10. the "we tried a moderate" argument will not work.

[blueclown]

12. McCain is not a moderate.

If they nominated Susan Collins, they would have had a moderate candidate.

[bridgit]

11. Rec 5 & Good! Let them shoot each other for a while

[kenny blankenship]

13. Would it be wrong to give them knives and hatchets?

[BlueIdaho]

14. Be of good cheer...

The Party of Lincoln has been replaced by the party of hoods and robes, the Reagan coalition is dead and buried, the Log House republicans are a historical footnote, and the neocons and traditional fiscal conservatives are at each other's throats. The corpse is twitching and the grave is dug. The republican party is in shambles and I couldn't be happier.

[ACTION BASTARD]

22. This for truth.

The corporatists just threw Buckley Jr. under a bus for not towing the company line. Powell, just gave them the finger so the neocons are getting their white robes out of storage. So the Stormwatch contingent is about to be let loose. The cross-humpers are eye-balling everyone that's not christo-fascist hard enough. Traditional repubs are out-flanked, out-manned and are about to be overrun by their very neighbors.

Oh snap, it is a civil war!

[jazzjunkysue]

15. I'm looking forward to seeing who remains in power after this election:

They'll tip the scales in their own direction, no doubt.

Personally, I'm hoping to relieve Chris Shays of his obligation to the voting public.

[CitizenPatriot]

17. It's Clinton's fault...and the Dem congress that had control for oh so many

years. You know this is all their fault.

the GOPPERS took the fall for the Big Dog. It only looked like high economic times under Clinton (so to speak).

After King George was appointed, the markets were left in the arms of a deregulator... and you know how well that turned out!

Damn Clinton.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:



:sarcasm:

[Herman74]

18. Repugnant Base will be hoping for a repeat of "1976 (Ford) followed by...

...1980 (St. Ronnie)." Ford -- the "establishment" candidate. Raygun -- candidate of the loony right.

[AlinPA]

19. The GOP war will be won by the extreme right-wing, racist, intolerant, Christian fundamentalist,

xenophobic, anti-science wings of that party.

[FlyingTiger]

20. Expect a huge battle with the religious right.

There will be vicious infighting between the social conservatives and the economic conservatives in the party. And, sadly, I think the social conservatives will win. Economic conservatism seems to have become a lost cause, which means more deficit spending than you can shake a stick at.

[leftstreet]

21. Disagree. The GOP will go populist

Eventually.

For example, single payer health care IS a conservative economic plan.

Just sayin.

:shrug:

[Marsala]

26. GOP going populist could be the worst result for us long term

It would force in the greedy corporate folks with us and drain away the blue-collar but socially conservative crowd. It would split the nation almost entirely on class lines: educated, well-off and socially liberal vs. not educated, less well off and socially conservative.

However, the party structures are more calcified than many speculate. It would take a long time for the GOP's economic platform to actually shift.

[Doctor_J]

23. The old McCain would have had a chance.

The drooling right-wing pit bull was a loser.