The tight West Virginia polls show why Obama will win the election ...

[Alhena]

if you had told me back in May, when Obama only got 30% or so of the vote in the Democratic primary in West Virginia, that he would be within single digits of McCain in the polls there, and would be actively contesting it, I would have said you were crazy.

We probably won't win West Virginia, and that's fine. But West Virginia is made up largely of the working-class white Appalachians who have long been Obama's toughest audience. Those same kind of voters are found in abundance in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. The difference between winning over 44% of such voters and only winning 34% of them, may well be the difference between winning or losing the four states I mentioned.

I feel very confident in saying that if Obama can win Appalachian Virginia in the same proportion that he's winning among Appalachian West Virginians (i.e. only down by single digits), the fact that Virginia is 20% African-American, as well as his huge support in Northern Virginia, means he has that state basically wrapped up. And it's very hard to see how he can win Virginia yet lose the election.

[StevieM]

1. Hillary's campaigning efforts for Obama have been wildly successful. She has done a lot

to help him win over voters, both Democrats and independents. When the primary ended it was suggested (or outright stated) that Hillary would make only a half-hearted effort on Barack's behalf--and that turned out to be clearly not the case. She has been the ultimate team player, because that is who Hillary is. She always puts the country first.

Steve

[speedoo]

2. I like your analysis.

I'm not knowledgable enough about the demographics of the states you address to comment on the underlying basis for your analysis, but your logic appears to be flawless.

[Lyric]

3. I heard an awesome Obama attack ad on the radio today in West Virginia.

It's the first one I've heard so far this year. WOOT! We're so close I can almost taste the Change.

:woohoo:

[Blondiegrrl]

4. Excellent point. I'm a West Virginian, and I agree with your assessment.

In WV's defense, I feel compelled to add that Hillary would have won the primary regardless, because the Clintons are beloved in this state. BUT I am certain that a good percentage of her votes were racist, "anti-Obama" votes. The fact that he's made this much progress in the state in the proceeding months -- without even CAMPAIGNING here -- says a lot.

And yes, rural, western VA has largely the same demographic of WV. I am 99 percent certain Obama will win VA.

[Alhena]

5. Glad to hear a native WV resident agrees- thx