Obama's poll lead may not be as much as we like, but it has settled into a REMARKABLY consistent 5%.

[Brotherjohn]

Considering the new CNN/ORC Poll (51-46% for a 5% lead) and the RCP avg. (4.8% lead), and the fact that the RANGE of ALL polls in the RCP average is a very narrow 4-6%, Obama's lead is extremely consistent across all polling.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Note that I'm counting the Gallup Daily as RCP does, weighting the two LV models (3% & 7%) at 50% each, to get a "Gallup Daily" number of 5%.

While the CBS/NYT 14% lead and the LATimes/Bloomberg 9% lead looked great, they were definitley on the high end, and have dropped off the average due to being more than a week old. I'm not so sure a few isolated polls showing large leads are as good as having a smaller but VERY consistent lead across ALL polling.

I think Obama's lead has levelled off from it's meteoric rise of about 1-4 weeks ago, and has perhaps settled at a slightly smaller lead. I would expect, however, that the Powell endorsement might add another point or two.

People's minds are being made up, and there is little time left for McCain.

(Of course, I know, the Battlegrounds/states are most important. But this national lead is reflected in them.)

[jenmito]

1. That's bull. They "decide" NOT to use the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll that has Obama +10. n/t

[uponit7771]

5. RCP is using Gallups "traditional" and some other stupid poll too..

[jenmito]

12. Of course. But even so, if they used the LATEST Gallup's numbers,

they'd have to show Obama gaining and McCain losing ground.

[Schulzz]

2. I agree that the average has been stable. I have never believed that Obama +14 could really happen.

5-6% can already result in a big electoral win (350+)

[grantcart]

3. It has settled to 5-6 % and I still think that it is not reflecting recent registrations

however all of that is irrlevent - its all about the EV and that has become even more consistent.


Increases and decreases in the national polls do not, at this time reflect what is happening in swing states. As Obama does not respond to attacks in Utah and Texas those states show McCain's lead growing. In the meantime Obama's lead in VA is increasing. McCain picking up votes in Utah and Texas is meaningless and Obama adding votes in VA means that McCain cannot win.

[writes3000]

6. Exactly! We have new registrations, GOTV and enthusiasm in our back pocket.

I expect the final result to be 1 - 3% higher than the final poll predictions.

[uponit7771]

7. True, Obama has ALL of Kerry's states plus IA and VA right now. There's no way I'm gonna accept a

...Kerry like loss in this race.

[uponit7771]

4. RIGHT!!! Pollster.com and RCP .com has him around 5% and that's WITH the GALLOP "tradition" outlier

...which puts Obama at 3% with Gallup, I don't know WHY RCP is even considering the Gallup "traditional"

Also, IA...NM...VA have all been VERY solid blue for the last month...that = 270.

Obama only needs IA and VA to win cause all Kerry states are solid blue right now.

There's NO FREAKIN WAY Obama should accept a loss in this race...he shouldn't pull a Kerry no matter what.

[WI_DEM]

8. People think a 5-point lead is not large but in an election where say 120 million

people vote that is a 6-million vote victory. Also, Clinton won by 5-points in '92.

[Schulzz]

9. 538 has used a 5-6 point lead over the last weeks and had Obama at an AVERAGE of 340-350 EV. nt

[DemsUnited]

10. What makes me smile is you have to go back a whole MONTH to find one lonely poll with McCain ahead.

And even then it's a McCain +2 from GW Battleground Tracking (which I believe was battleground states only back then).

Basically, except for a brief blip between 9/5 & 9/10, Obama has been consistently in the lead since the primary started.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

[Schulzz]

11. Yes and as a comparison, while Kerry was behind in almost every national poll in the same period,

there were still some tied polls and 4-5 polls, which had Kerry ahead in October.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html