The Two Historical Numbers: 50% Popular Vote and 60% Turnout. Can We Do It?

[Median Democrat]

Howard Fineman always loves to betray his own ignorance, and ask why isn't Obama's lead larger? However, in asking this question, he ignores the fact that no Democrat has won 50% of the popular vote in over 30 years. Due to third party candidates, which we continue to have in this election, neither Bill Clinton nor Al Gore got more than 50% of the popular vote. There is a sizable portion of the electorate whose decision to vote against the Democrats will not change due to Democratic support for choice and civil rights. If Obama breaks through the 50% popular vote, then this is truly a historic achievement.

The second number is 60% turnout. Election turnout has not exceeded 60% since 1968. The Bush/Kerry election had the highest turnout since then at 57%. However, as the news makes clear, the GOP will stop at nothing to suppress the vote. If turnout exceeds 60%, then Obama has a really good shot at winning, though this will also partially be based on racists turning out due to the efforts of the McCain/Palin campaign to generate excitement among racists with their smears aganst Obama. Still, if the Obama campaign can keep up the pressure with its volunteers, and with supporters getting people the polls, we may have a very good chance at cracking the 60% threshold.

[Median Democrat]

1. Anyone? Which Threshold Is More Likely To Be Broken?

Voter Turnout at 60% (1968) or Democrat winning the popular vote by more than 50% (1976)?