Am I nuts for thinking these non-scientific polls (Scholastic, 7-11, Amazon) are onto something?

[Drunken Irishman]

Hear me out.

All these polls based on mask sales, coffee cups, kid votes and cookies were right on the button in 2004, some even closer than the real polls.

And what do they all have in common this election? Obama is winning, but he's not only winning, he's winning by almost nearly the same margin.

http://www.rbanet.com/2008cookiepoll.htm#Results">The Cookie Poll

In 2004, the election cookie poll accurately predicted the next president of the United States - President George W. Bush.

Right now, Obama leads 58-42.

http://www.7-eleven.com/">The 7-11 Poll

The 2004 7-Election results tracked identically with published national election results: 51% for George W. Bush and 49% for John Kerry.

Right now, Obama leads 60-40, or almost the same numbers as the cookie poll, which predicted Bush in 2004.

http://www.amazon.com/Put-Your-Party-on-Your-Face/meters/A2JPIXA6Y3NESG/">The Amazon Dot Com Mask Poll

The 2004 Amazon results showed Bush beating Kerry.

Right now, Obama leads 54-46. Obviously a bit closer than the above polls, but still around the same number (above 50% for Obama and McCain struggling in the 40s).

http://www2.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3750501">The Kids' Vote

In the 2004 Scholastic Election Poll, George W. Bush received 52 percent
of the votes and the Democratic contender, John F. Kerry, received 47 percent.

The 2008 poll shows Obama winning 57-39, or almost the same margin as the above polls. In 2004, the poll was almost exactly spot on, as were the above numbers four years ago.

Am I nuts or is there a trend here? I'm starting to think maybe the polls are underestimating the support, while maybe these non-scientific polls, for whatever reason, are getting a better idea of the national trend.

Who knows, just thought it was interesting.

[kirby]

1. Yep, you are nuts. Have another drink... n/t

[Bad Thoughts]

2. The Kids' Poll is a mirror into American Homes

Children pick up on the positive and negative things that parents say about candidates, and tend to reflect them in their own opinions. It may not translate into real votes, but clearly Obama has a positive image.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. It is indeed interesting

It will be fun to find out how close these polls are to what really happens this time.

[tigereye]

4. check out this site, it's very comprehensive and interesting...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pennsylvania

[msallied]

5. I think there are too many variables that aren't accounted for here...

However, I think that a pattern is definitely obvious. The Scholastic Kids poll, in particular, is useful because it's only been wrong twice since its inception, and both of those elections were among the closest in history (1948, 1960). Now, it only accounts for a certain demographic. The parents of these kids, whom the votes are likely most reflecting, are going to likely be between the ages of 20 and 40. That's an assumption. Anyway, it wouldn't likely account for people older than that, who make up the other half of the electorate. But rest assured that if Obama is pulling in the middle-age and younger crowd, and he's pulling in a decent percentage of the electorate, then he's in a very good position.

[AndyTiedye]

6. Mask Sales Might be a Contrary Indicator

A lot of people might be buying McCain and Palin masks this Halloween because they are so scary!

[abbiehoff]

7. Kid's vote at 57 - 49??

seems like about 106 percent.

[progressiveforever]

8. It was actually 57-39 with 45 other

[VADem11]

9. It's actually 57-39

plus 4 percent for others.

[quantass]

10. Math and Science are taught very well in U.S. schools

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Yeah, I guess I'm stupid.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Sorry, I meant to type 39, but hit 49.

[livedemocarticordie]

11. The Kids Poll with Scholastic is: Obama 57, McDickus 39

.. It's the one to watch., They have been doing it for decades and it is pretty consistent on being correct because young children parrot their children. The adult vote is mirrored. The Bradley Effect and other effects are diminished.

From SCHOLASTIC:

It's official. At least for the kids! The Scholastic Presidential Election Poll results are in: Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote, to 39 percent for Republican nominee Senator John McCain.

The poll was open to kids from grades 1 to 12 in Scholastic News and Junior Scholastic magazines. Almost 250,000 (a quarter of a million) kids voted by paper ballot or online at www.scholastic.com/news. The poll closed on October 10.

Since 1940, the results of the student vote have mirrored the outcome of the general election all but twice: In 1948, kids voted for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman. In 1960, more students voted for Richard M. Nixon than for John F. Kennedy. In 2000, a majority of student voters chose George W. Bush, mirroring the Electoral College result, but not the result of the popular vote.


.....

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

12. Bits of anecdotal evidence

These polls are just as valuable as the stories about "My crazy Republican uncle who is voting for Obama." They aren't scientific, and they are not useful for projecting accurate results, but they are reasonable as anecdotal proof that there is a shifting in political thinking out there.