Attention DU Chicken Littles: Expect the sky to lower a bit - NOT fall

[Richardo]

The key will be Obama's numbers, not McCain's.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-rosenberg/expect-mccain-to-gain-gro_b_135581.html

As we head into the home stretch, it is going to be important for those analyzing the election not to confuse McCain gaining a few points with him once again having the opportunity to win the election.

The Pollster.com national polling average this morning is 50 Obama, 43 McCain. Where will the movement be in these final three weeks? If the election ends up 4-6 points for Obama, this means we end up 52-48, 53-47, or something like that. My sense now is that McCain is likely to gain 4-5 points in this these final few weeks and return to a respectable level for a credible GOP candidate. Part of what may drive this movement in the next few weeks is McCain bouncing back up from his current below-the-floor position. I mean 43 percent for a major GOP candidate in a two-way race? No way we are going to end up there.

McCain's gains these coming weeks will be because he had been so dramatically underperforming since his successful convention. His erratic performance in the debates, his very public confusion during that first week of the financial crisis, the cratering of Sarah Palin, have all combined to leave him several points below where he should be at this point. In these next few weeks he will in all likelihood regain ground he should have been occupying all along but lost due to his disappointing campaign. So in many ways, McCain's likely uptick is more a sign of his current weakness than any newfound strength.

Getting back up to 46, 47, 48 is not the same as winning. My guess is there will be a lot of confusion about this in the chattering classes in the next few weeks.

And of course, the most obvious fact to me is that a national majority or plurality does NOT elect the President - electoral votes do. The only numbers that matter (if any) are the state-by-state polls.

Get out the vote, get as many people as possible to vote early and avoid the chaos of November 4. :patriot:

[treestar]

1. Or maybe McCrap won't make any gains

Wait until the polls come out before deciding what they say.

[Tallison]

2. I've learned to only pay attention to state polls

National polls are strategically irrelevant, as are theoretical McCain gains in such states as Texas and Indiana. A theoretical gain in such states as Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, on the other hand, would concern me.

[peekaloo]

3. Old Man Yells At Clouds.

a lowered sky means less Chicken Little more Grandpa Simpson.

[zanne]

4. Good post.

I have a very strong feeling that some "undecideds" will simply go along with the party they're comfortable with (In NH, 60% of Independents are Republicans). We'll find out if they've finally had enough on Nov. 4th.

[terrya]

5. Excellent post. Recommended.

Let's take some advice from Obama himself. No complancency.

I have FULL, absolute trust in the Obama/Biden campaign. As we've seen, these people are GOOD.

And, sir, I've already voted early. :-)

[barack the house]

6. You are right on target, it's all in the numbers..

[elocs]

7. This is a 50 state race and not a national election. Electoral votes are what counts.

I do not see how any national poll could accurately reflect what the race may be in 50 individual states.