SurveyUSA Florida: M-49, O-47. But look at the poll internals

[endthewar]

Don't worry folks, this poll is an outlier and the poll internals really show it:

Yellow flag #1: Obama is only winning the 18-34 age group by 12 points. This seems to underestimate his lead in that age group as compared to many other national and state polls.

Red flag #1: McCain is getting 22% of the black vote in Florida. I guarantee that on election day McCain will NOT get 22% of the black vote in Florida. I think some people are lying to pollsters about their race here to help McCain.

Red flag #2: The party breakdown was 44% Republicans, 40% Democrats 16% Independents. This doesn't mesh with the shift on a national level giving Democrats more voters than the Republicans.

Yellow flag#2: Obama is winning Independents 47 to 44. I would wager that if Obama wins the Independents in Florida, he'll win the state. This goes back to the party sampling ratio that I just mentioned.

On edit: Link to poll: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45bb3f2c-2191-49e1-9d67-a326956b75ca&c=42

Also, I find it odd that the racial breakdown for this poll was only 10% African-American.

[Bicoastal]

1. Old poll. Don't sweat it.

[BlueManDude]

2. We need to get to 270 w/out FL or OH.

I'm not counting on either one.

[RedSpartan]

8. Then we just need...

The Kerry States... done.

Iowa... done.

New Mexico... done.

and

Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, or North Carolina... which are looking good.

[BlueManDude]

10. OH and FL would be gravy and regardless we can tie McCain down there

He's got to win both.

[RedSpartan]

12. Exactly.

Obama has many paths to victory. McCain, basically, has one: win every swing state. Not gonna happen.

[Coexist]

3. SUSA is not usually this off - do those who pay for the polls ask for certain sampling?

[endthewar]

5. I don't know, but they should

It's clear to me that pollsters can easily manipulate the results by changing the party sampling, since Republicans go for McCain and Democrats go for Obama.

[speedoo]

4. That's just bizarre.

Throw that poll out, it's worthless (unless you're a McLiar supporter who wants to delude yourself). Thanks for checking out the internals.

[Jersey Devil]

6. What is the party registration breakdown in Fla?

While I agree regarding black voters in Florida, The party breakdown in Fla is probably much more heavily Repub than nationally so SUSA may be right on that.

[endthewar]

9. Great question. Answer:

From: http://www.americablog.com/2008/08/democratic-voter-registration-continues.html

Article written on 8/12/08.

"Democratic voter registration continues to surge in Florida"

"The Republican Party is not doing as well. Its membership increased by just 2.5 percent -- about 98,000. The nearly 4.4 million Democrats outnumber Republicans by 465,000."

It doesn't say how many Independents, but if one used 20% Independents, then the breakdown for Repubs and Dems should be Repubs-38, Dems-42. This is for registered voters. Perhaps likely voters might cut this Dem lead some, but I don't think it should be an 8 point turnaround, from +4 Dem to +4 Repub. :patriot:

[glowing]

11. no, not this year.. the dems that have been added to the registration

is more than pugs.. the only shot they have is dems not showing up, independents going pug and dems going pug... We'll see... should have a general feel of things Monday.. early voting begins then. To be sure Obama has said vote early, pay attention, and help out on Nov. 4th getting people to the polls and canvassing.. AND there's excitement.. people just can't wait to vote... We've been ready to vote for a long time now...

[billyoc]

7. Obama doesn't need Florida, McCain does.

Without Florida OR Ohio, Obama still has 302 EV's.

Looking at http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[FLyellowdog]

14. Yes, but FL would be nice. I hate living in a red state.

[FLyellowdog]

13. I'm still working hard in FL. Hope we go blue...I'm tired of looking sunburned all the time.

[Cush]

15. SUSA has never shown Obama in the lead