On Election Night, what's the earliest they could call it for Obama?

[kay1864]

I got curious, so I did the math. Math, folks. Excel spreadsheet and everything. So it's official. :snarf:

I looked up the state-by-state closing times, and adjusted for time zones, and totaled the Likely and Possible totals for each hour. The result?

No way they can call it before 9pm Eastern (when the polls close in NY). And the most likely scenario is 11pm, when they call the West Coast.

To call it by 9pm:
Obama has to win 2 of the following AND there have to be enough precincts reporting for them to call it for Obama:
NC, OH (7:30pm)
FL, Missouri (8pm)

Well hell, with the voter turnout in those states, it's unlikely they'd have meaningful results within an hour of the polls closing.

FWIW, my prediction is a repeat of 2004, where we're waiting til midnight for the results from OH, and probably for NC, FL, and MO.

(the above is in response to this silly article in Politico, titled "Nation could face short Election Night", in which they claim it will be all over if Obama wins Virginia (7pm closing) http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14660.html )


Either way, don't forget...

Get out the vote!

[DaveinMD]

1. they won't

call it before 11 so the west coast finishes voting.

[orestes]

3. Pretty much

Though if a state like Virginia goes blue, you can start getting ready to celebrate. If NC and Florida go blue, too, then it'll be all over except for the crying, regardless of whether they wait till later to "officially" call it or not.

[kay1864]

6. Yes indeed

Although Politico's just nonsensical in their implication that the networks will be ending coverage once Virginia is called.

[scheming daemons]

2. 11 PM.... when CA, WA, and OR come in... that will be enough EVs to win it

[defendandprotect]

5. And reverse it at 11:15 .... Actually, they have to keerp enthusiasm and ...

expectation re Obama tamped down -- that's cookin' from 2pm and coming to a boil by 4pm --

[Drunken Irishman]

4. They won't call it until he reaches 270.

But I think we'll know who our president is by 9:00 EST.

[kay1864]

19. I can't see 9 pm, honestly

As per my OP, there'd have to be enough precincts reporting in FL, OH, NC to call two of those states for Obama. I don't see that happening by 9 pm. But maybe.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Virginia closes at 7 EST.

That's two hours to count the votes and declare a winner.

If he wins Virginia, he wins the presidency.

[kay1864]

25. Nope, sorry

The math doesn't work with VA alone. He needs two of the four above.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. Then you're looking at the math wrong.

If Obama carries Virginia and loses every other swing state Kerry didn't win in '04, he wins 272-266.

McCain can't lose Virginia. He loses Virginia and he needs to pick off a Kerry state from 2004 and then hope Obama doesn't win New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Montana or North Dakota.

[kay1864]

30. Not at all

They can't call the west coast states before 11 pm. So your claim of declaring a winner by 9 pm with the VA results is faulty.

[Drunken Irishman]

32. Did you even read my post?

I said they wouldn't announce Obama as the next president until he reached 270.

However, WE would know if Obama carried Virginia, which could be declared for Obama around 9:00 EST.

[kay1864]

35. Yes I did. Did you read my OP?

The question wasn't "when do we at DU think Obama's clinched it". It was when can the networks call it. And it's mathematically possible (though unlikely) for him to reach 270 votes before the west coast results are called. But not with VA alone.

*You* can declare all you want, but I was clearly talking about when the *networks* can declare a winner.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. And I answered that!

Yeesh, I was just adding MY personal opinion.

Good to know that isn't allowed here on DU. :eyes:

[kay1864]

40. Actually no, you *didn't* answer it

In my OP I was clearly asking what time the networks could call it. You responded with an electoral vote total that nearly everyone knows.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Then no one can answer it.

Because no one knows the exact time Obama will cross the 270 needed to be declared president.

Jesus, who pissed in your Cheerios?

[kay1864]

43. You don't even understand the question

I said when *could* they call it, not when *will* they call it. And that *is* an answerable question (see my OP).

:eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

44. Whatever.

You figure it out. They're not going to call it until Obama hits 270. It could be really early, or it could be really late. I threw out 270 to give YOU an idea of when it would likely be called.

If Obama blows McCain out, it'll be called much earlier than 11 EST when California closes.

If Obama loses ground and starts losing the battle ground states, it won't be called until 11 EST.

I said 270 to make it EASIER for you, since no one knows how it's going to go. Obama could win Virginia, he could lose it and lose all the early states and maybe he won't pass 270 until Colorado and New Mexico are called. Maybe he will.

I'm sorry my answer wasn't good enough for you, but you didn't have to be a complete asshole about it. :eyes:

[kay1864]

48. Gee, thanks for that 270 number

And it wasn't a matter of "good enough for me", it was you making the claim that you answered it (when clearly you didn't). And claiming my question was unanswerable (when clearly it wasn't).

I'm sorry my question wasn't simple enough for you, but you didn't have to be a complete asshole about it.

:eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

53. I'm glad you're sorry.

I'll make sure to never reply to your posts again, since you obviously fly off the handle when someone tries to help.

Have fun, buddy! :hi:

[kay1864]

54. Making bogus claims is "helping"?

Answering questions other than the one posed (and then claiming you did so) is "helping"?

You have an odd concept of "helping". Not to mention an odd concept of "flying off the handle". (Pot, meet kettle)

[Jennicut]

60. Guys, stop fighting. You both want Obama to win.

I personally wish the election were today so my election-time anxiety will go away. I think I'm pretty relaxed in general as I know Obama is ahead but I want the damn thing over with so I can go on with my anxiety-free life.

[morillon]

7. When they call Georgia for Obama.

I wonder if there's a 24-hour fireworks store just over the border in Alabama? I'd be tempted to go buy some. :-)

[CitizenPatriot]

31. me, too! I hope they can see mine in SC!!! nt

[morillon]

37. Fireworks are legal in SC, right?

We can only get the little silly kind here. They sell the real stuff in Alabama!

I suspect a lot of my neighbors are Dems. In fact, the head of the local Obama group lives a couple blocks away. Maybe nobody would rat me out to the police. :-)

[CitizenPatriot]

56. Yeah, I can get mine in SC but I live in GA

we have guns and all kinds of crap going off here all of the time-- No one will notice a few fireworks (she said stupidly).

I'm gonna rock this place!!!!!!

I hope Shameless gets kicked to the curb as well.

[morillon]

58. That's a great nickname for him! n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

39. I had a dream about two months ago...

I was at my aunt's and we were having an election party and they called Georgia for Obama.

Don't know what it means, but I remember being sooo excited.

[morillon]

55. He's got momentum here, for sure! n/t

[CitizenPatriot]

57. REALLY? Wow! I love it. I hope to have same dream tonight...it's catching! nt

[matchstick]

8. i won't be home that day

i'm gonna be biting my nails wondering whats happening on election night.

[msongs]

9. kerry states plus va = win? nt

[OhioBlue]

10. I hope they call it early...

I have to be at the staging location at 5:30 a.m. for GOTV

I scheduled a vacation day from work to do it...

I live in a small, rural, red county in Ohio... We are making thousands of phone calls and knocking on thousands of doors. Ohio is working hard to go blue. i want it. I want to see Ohio called for Obama - live. I hope I don't fall asleep before we get there.

[Beregond2]

11. I sincerely hope that when the Dems enact election reform,

there will be a clause forbidding the announcement of any results until ALL polling places are closed. I know, that means no one will know anything until the next day, which will be frustrating. But it is absolutely undemocratic for the race to be called before people are done voting. We can stand it.

[Pab Sungenis]

12. Probably not before 11 PM EST.

California will most likely put him over the top.

By 9 PM EST, Obama should have 234 electoral votes if the current maps hold up. At 10 PM, if he wins MO, OH, and FL by enough to call them all early, he could have 272. More likely, he'll have 261 with MO still too close to call or going for McCain, 241 with OH and MO both too close or McCain, or 214 with all three out of the picture.

When CO and NM come in, it will bring him to 228, 248, 275, or 286 depending on the three eastern/midwestern toss ups. 11 PM will bring him to 359, 348, 321, or 301 and a victory. Even if we take VA and NC out (which all these scenarios of mine have had in Obama's column), he'll still have 273 at 11 PM EST.

[SeattleGirl]

13. Not until EVERYBODY has had a chance to vote that day.

Please, eastcoasters: don't forget there are other time zones that are earlier than yours, and the fucking news media need to keep their damned mouths shut about it until everyone gets to vote. M'kay?

[hedgehog]

20. The turnout in California is vital due to Prop 8!

[usregimechange]

14. If Obama takes FL, I will call it

[holiday]

18. Well I think from what I read they are saying that McCain HAS

to win Virginia or he can't win. Does anyone know if that's true?

They are saying no electoral scenario can allow him to win without VA

[Drunken Irishman]

28. It would be nearly impossible for McCain to win without Virginia.

He'd have to win a state Kerry carried in 2004 and hope Obama didn't carry any other swing state that went to Bush in 2004.

The probability of that is extremely low. If Obama wins Virginia, it's over.

[Jersey Devil]

15. Earliest strong indication could come after 7 pm when VA polls close

If Obama takes Virginia and if he does it handily we will know immediately.

[Thrill]

16. If he wins NC and VA. The night is over.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Actually, NC OR VA.

He could win just one and it's over. :D

[Mariana]

17. If the turnout is very high, the polls may not close on time.

Aren't they supposed to let everyone vote who's been waiting? Do they get to start counting even while folks are voting?

I think that unless something really crazy happens, like Texas going blue, it's going to be a late night.

[hedgehog]

22. I'm betting that the polls in California close before the polls in Ohio.

Court order or not, NO WAY are the polls in Cuyahoga County closing while people are standing in line!

[kay1864]

23. Exactly.

And good question...I don't know if Precinct A can report results if Precinct B is still open.

Anybody know? Varies by state, or is it accepted practice to wait until all precincts in a state are closed before reporting?

I know there was a debacle in 92 or something, when they called FL before the Panhandle had closed (networks got spanked bigtime on that one). But that might have been based on exit polling rather than precincts' results.

[FVZA_Colonel]

27. 11 PM Pacific Standard Time.

The West Coast results will be coming in, and though Alaska and Hawaii will still have time it will basically be a foregone conclusion by then.

[kay1864]

29. I think you mean 11 PM Eastern

Polls close at 8pm local time on the west coast.

[FVZA_Colonel]

33. Oh yeah.

I wasn't thinking quite properly there.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. We're sweating Alaska baby

At least I will be. That senate race is going to be tight. Same with Gregoire/Rossi in Washington.

I like to focus on the smaller races, watching the numbers shift while all the focus is on the presidency.

[LiberalFighter]

38. If Indiana is called for Obama before the next round then it is over for McCain.

[KingFlorez]

41. 11 pm EST

That will be in the official call is made, but I do expect it will become clear rather early that Obama will be the winner.

[WheelWalker]

45. What's the earliest

DU will crash?

[kay1864]

50. ROFL!

:thumbsup:

[Withywindle]

51. About noon. n/t

[WindRiverMan]

46. It will be over if/when any of the following go blue

Virgina, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida from the east.

If Missouri flips from the midwest, pop a cork.

If McCain pulls all of those out, you will be waiting until they call New Mexico and Colorado.

[ddeclue]

47. 9PM Best Case scenario: Assuming the following:

Assuming Obama sweeps and blows out these states - it will take the first two time zones + one hour to lock down a state after the polls close gives me 9PM:

BEST CASE SCENARIO:

If the following 7 battleground states get swept:

1) Florida = 27
2) Virginia =13
3) North Carolina=15
4) Pennsylvania=21
5) Ohio=20
6) Missouri=11
7) West Virginia=5

Thats 112 electoral votes

Of course there are no guarantees about these yet

+ the more likely Dem states:
8) New York=31
9) NJ=15
10) CT=7
11) MA=12
12) NH=3
13) VT=4
14) ME=4
15) RI=4
16) IL=21
17) MI=17
18) WI=10
19) DC=3
20) MD=10
21) DE=3
22) MN=10
23) IA=7

That's an additional 161 EV's to reach 273 which is a lock

Without waiting for the vote to come in we can count on:

24) CA=55
25) OR=7
26) WA=11
27) NM=5
28) HI=4

going Dem in the west which would be an additional 82 which would result in a total of 355 EV's for Obama

and

1) TN=11
2) GA=15
3) MS=6
4) AL=9
5) KY=8
6) IN=11
7) ID=4
8) NE=5
9) WY=3
10) MT=3
11) KS=6
12) OK=7
13) TX=34
14) AZ=10
15) UT=5
16) AK=3
17) AR=6
18) SC=8
19) SD=3
20) ND=3
21) LA=9

Will likely go R in the West and South

Giving a total of 169 for McCain

Unsure about:
1) CO=9
2) NV=5

in the West

for 14 votes out west that I'm afraid to decide on..

These might go either way..

This might mean from 355 to 183 or it might mean 369 to 169.

I am predicting personally that it will be 350 to 188.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[ddeclue]

49. Another way to think about it...Obama has 82+161 locked down for 243 pretty comfortably.

He only needs to win ONE of the first 7 states I listed to win the race:

Florida

or

various combinations of the two states reaching 27 or more EV's out of the first 7.

there is NO combination of 3 or more states in the first 7 which John McCain can afford to lose.


Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[kay1864]

52. Yep, those numbers match my spreadsheet

Although I had CO in the Likely column per electoral-vote.com, but at only 5 points, you're right, it probably should be in the Toss-Up column.

I'm still smiling at the Politico column. As if CNN et al will be turning out the lights once VA is called. "Short election night" indeed. :rofl:

[Hamlette]

59. they will call it at 7 when polls close in VA. McCain can't win without VA.

[kay1864]

62. Seriesly?

Networks don't call a winner on that basis.

"McCain can't win without VA, so we're gonna call it for Obama, even though he hasn't reached 270 yet, but he's sure to."

Uh-uh. Networks don't work that way.

[Hamlette]

66. they will spend the next few hours talking about how McCain might pull it out like:

If McCain wins California then he'll have 271 electoral votes" or "If McCain wins all the west plus Michigan and Florida and East Germany" he can still win this thing"

But everyone, even the ppl on TV, will know.

If Obama wins VA it is over and all they will be able to say is goodnight, but they can't say that so they will say "the Democrats do not have a chance of getting a filibuster proof Senate so we will stay here blabbing all night because we've already sold the ads for this show, and follow the Senate races."

Chuck and his map are so over at 7 pm eastern

[WritingIsMyReligion]

69. I just laughed my ass off.

"If McCain wins California then he'll have 271 electoral votes" or "If McCain wins all the west plus Michigan and Florida and East Germany he can still win this thing"

Oh god, I can see the pundits now talking about it.

:rofl:

[smalll]

64. Ding ding ding, we have a WINNER!

The powers that be may not call it then, but when Obama wins Virginia (yes, it closes at a nice early 7 pm! Normal time! (EST)) we'll all know it's over.

(Cocky as a gay orgy! With good reason!)

[davidpdx]

61. I would hope the networks would be cautious

not to call it before 11pm Pacific Time. If they do, it could cause people not to vote. There are some pretty important races on the Westcoast including one for US Senate in Oregon and Governor of Washington.

[No Passaran]

63. Once they call Virginia for Obama, you can start celebrating

It will be over

[Alexander]

65. 3 am

[Sheltiemama]

67. Early, I hope.

I work at a newspaper, and in 2004, I was at work until 3:30 a.m. I'd love to go home at 1 a.m. as scheduled.

[progressiveforever]

68. According to my video collection.......

No calls in 2004 or 2000.....

1996 9 PM Call by CNN
1992 10:40 PM Call by CNN
1988 8:40 Call by CNN

[WritingIsMyReligion]

70. I think 11 pm, when the West Coast comes in.

If Virginia goes blue, though, and especially if Virginia AND NC go blue, it will be a foregone conclusion by 9 pm, but they'll wait until the West Coast has closed just to be safe. After 00 and 04 the media has been almost ridiculously cautious re: calling things.