McCain Falling Behind 46-41 On Rush's Favorite Poll-IBDTIPP

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY5.htm

Some of their internals don't make sense...

[gabeana]

1. Yeah they don't

especially mcCain about +20 in 18 -24 category

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Their Headline Numbers Fall Within The Range Of Polls

But their internals are so off...

That's counterintuitive...

But I have seen that in other polls...

[FreeState]

3. Thats a new GOP narrative thats been on the air here in CA too

The local news keeps saying Prop 8 will pass because for some reason the youth vote does not support equality - when every damn poll shows thats not true except one SUSA poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Do You Have A Link?

I would think there is a positive relationship between age and support for Prop 8;the older you are the more likely you are to support Prop 8...

[FreeState]

7. Here you go....

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b46ce159-115e-4f44-8be2-ce9b8eca657e

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. TY

That's certainly counterintuitive...

I suspect it's an outlier...

[FreeState]

9. Today there is a new one that shows 46% no 44% yes...

My personal guess is that both polls were taken on weekends - the youth that are home are more than likely living with their parents - which would be more conservative voters IMO - but I have no evidence of that... just a hunch.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0d4fd538-5834-4c18-98c8-6e58da254976

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Too Bad You're Not In FL

Amendments needs 60% of the vote to become law...

[Marsala]

4. That might just be a crazy outlier

Their other internal numbers don't look too far off. Hell, I don't know. The tracking polls are making less and less sense. Why would the gap suddenly narrow in the DailyKos poll and suddenly widen in the IBD poll on the same day? Bizarre.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Statistical Noise

Obama is up in IBD/TIPP,Gallup, and Hotline

Static in Zogby and Rasmussen

Down in Battle Grouns and Kos/Research 2000


Who knows?


I'm not greedy... A win is a win is a win...

[David__77]

11. Internals are maybe interesting, but don't have the the same margin of error.

We're talking about a very small sample, with a huge margin of error. And remember, they are only saying that there's a, say, 95% chance that the TOTAL percentages are within 3.5 points. So, if the polls shows that the race is 46-41, there's a 95% chance that it's somewhere between 2 points in McCain's favor and 12 points in Obama's favor. But, with internals, that 95% spread is MUCH wider.

[BootinUp]

12. Union households, 37% McCain? GTFOH

[BootinUp]

13. We all need to start "displaying the flag" just to fuck with them, lol. nt