Bottom line: Obama only needs Iowa plus 11 electoral votes to win ...

[Alhena]

he's crushing McCain in all the Kerry states and is a lock to win Iowa's 7 electoral votes that Bush won. That means Obama only needs 10 additional electoral votes to tie and 11 to win.

That means that Obama will almost certainly win if he carries the Kerry states, plus Iowa, and ANY ONE of the following states (with electoral votes in paranthesis).

Florida (27)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
Missouri (11)
Indiana (11)
Ohio (20)

Those are the eastern states- hopefully we will know by fairly early on election night that Obama has won. If he doesn't win even one of these states, then he has to win 2 of these three Western states to either win or tie:

Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)

So I don't really sweat the national polls too much- McCain is a position where he has to win all 6 of the aforementioned eastern states or it's over. Obama is leading in the polls in most if not all of them and his ground game is outstanding in each one.

[WI_DEM]

1. Excellent point. They are defending a lot of red states (WVA, too) and odds are Obama will take at

least two of them.

[Jersey Devil]

2. We may know very early on Election Day, maybe by 8 pm

The polls in Virginia close very early, 7 pm Eastern Time. If Virginia turns blue we will know it will be a landslide for Obama. If red then we are in a real fight to late in the evening when MO, NM and Colorado come in.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. I think the bottom line is that McCain is shoring up the margins...

and he's doing it by re-inforcing what he already has, not by making gains in battlegrounds. I'll believe tightening when I see it. Note: That doesn't mean I'm taking the race for granted, or that I'm not donating anymore or working or any of that - only that I'm not going to toss myself off a bridge because one or two polls out of the 13083440 out there show the racing getting closer.

[RedSpartan]

4. Exactly!

What I keep in mind is that he's got the Kerry states, Iowa and New Mexico all but locked up. That means if he takes Colorado, where he leads, it's over. McCain could win Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and all the rest and still not win. There are so many scenarios where Obama can win, and really only one for McCain: win 'em all. Not going to happen.

[AllentownJake]

5. I know I sound like a broken record

However if you live in one of those states or a state like PA or Minnesotta that is currently being targetted for being turned Red or a state Obama is targetting to turn Blue we need you on Election Day.

The GOP is organizing a thug army to suppress the vote and we need people in the streets and at the polls from preventing their disgusting tactics.

[frogcycle]

6. If Obama wins Virginia

You can rest assured some debacle will occur in a state farther west. They will have various appeals at the ready, just as they had the demonstrators to bus in in Florida 8 years ago. Some state that we think is "safe" will go all to hell because of some heretofore unmentioned "fraud" and its electoral votes will be challenged. That will be just to keep from having a winner declared. They won't pull the trigger on any of the contingencies until the need is apparent, but they will have a counterpunch ready for any eventuality. If that doesn't work, they'll open up the all-out assault on the entire election; if that looks like it is not working, there will be a declaration of martial law, probably based on whatever unrest there is over what they are doing. The election will be declared null and void, the constitution will be suspended, Congress and the SCOTUS will be sent home.

Sounds pretty far-fetched, but so does the Third Reich. The core of the PNAC is still there, and they are still True Believers. All you have to do is listed to David Frum's attack on Rachel Maddow, his defense of Wolfowitz's recommendation that we build up our nuclear arsenal and his scorn for those who 'don't understand the threat' to know that they would not hesitate to do whatever they think is necessary to sustain their endeavors to rule the world.

[Marsala]

8. Well gosh, since they control everything and will never give up power, it's all hopeless!

We should just give up and move to Canada, right?

[frogcycle]

10. no, we should be ready to respond

if we don't expect the worst, then it will be upon us before we know it, as has been the case throughout this slow-motion coup.

if/when they pull the trigger on the "ultimate solution" We the People will have to become really active.

[Peacetrain]

7. Yep Iowa is blue... a close friend in Minnesota called and wanted to talk to the smurfs

:rofl: now that is blue..

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. Well that article about Colorado being the new Ohio/Florida makes me think it won't be as

likely to go for Obama.

[Jennicut]

11. VA + NM that is the key. We are polling excellent in both states

And VA especially have been trending Dem lately. Ever since Webb convinced people that a Repuke could be defeated there we have been doing well. I love VA!!! I went there on vacation to VA Beach with my husband right after we graduated from college. It is a great state and I would love to see it turn blue.