Gallop (Traditional) 2%

[bookman]

Is this something of concern or not?

I'd love to hear from DU'ers on this.

[nsd]

1. No.

[elizm]

2. STATE POLLS are what matter. nt

[GreenPartyVoter]

3. Yep. It's all about the electoral vote.

[book_worm]

4. what are you talking about? do you have a link?

[HughMoran]

11. RCP is breaking out "traditional" 2% & "expanded" 6%

I dunno what to make of it, but it makes the numbers look smaller :shrug:

[bookman]

13. Poll being touted on CNN

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx


My feeling is they are tryng to feed the horse race thing, but I thought it was worth discussing.

I do understand the state electoral count is the real concern. Just putting this up for discussion.

[lessthanjake]

5. No

There's no concrete reason for it to have gotten closer at this point. It wasnt polling done after the debate, nor was there any good news for McCain that wouldve bettered his standing. Its just statistical noise.

[dennis4868]

10. well...

negative personal attacks do work in politics...maybe the ayers thing is finally taking a toll on Obama?

[DarthDem]

6. NO

No. No. No.

[HughMoran]

7. yeah, let's get the concern thing going

....or not.

[book_worm]

9. yep this is how it will be again. Any poll that shows McCain gaining a little ground and panic will

ensue once again on DU.

[Marsala]

8. 2004 was the most favorable for the Republicans that they may ever get

That's the way the 2% Gallup poll establishes likely voters. Being ahead at all in that poll is equivalent to an enormous real lead.

[DCBob]

12. Focus on state polls. Electoral college votes wins the election not popular vote.

The national polls can be misleading. I suspect much of McCain's supposed gains have been in Republican leaning states -- i.e. red states just get redder. In the states that matter, McCain is in deep trouble.

[book_worm]

14. I'd like to know what methodology Gallup used, I can see the pollsters now changing methodolgy now

so the horserace will seem to tighten.

[2BNMDLTR]

15. Not 2%, check the link

If you click the link its 49/43 for 6%. What's up with that?

[2BNMDLTR]

16. my bad

never mind, daily is 2, 3 day average is 6

[WeDidIt]

17. Since when has anything about this campaign been "traditional"

The traditional polling models fell flat on their face during the primaries, so that should answer your question.