Virginia (or New Hampshire + Minnesota) - the ultimate insurance policy

[Ian_rd]

Virgina, New Hampshire, and Minnesota are working out to be as vital as Ohio and Florida in a doomsday scenario.

Using the current numbers at Pollster.com (10:40am, October 16th), imagine the following horrific scenario: In addition to all of his "safe" states, John McCain wins EVERY "toss-up" state. This would put the electoral vote count at:

Obama 333
McCain 205

But in addition, McCain wins Ohio. Obama has a thin 4-point lead in Ohio, but it could change and Republicans appear to be having success at suppressing voter rights. This would put the result at:

Obama 313
McCain 225

Then - disaster! McCain wins Florida too. Florida, like Ohio, has a history of vote suppression, even if Obama is currently leading there with 6 points. The result, incredibly:

Obama 286
McCain 252

Obama still wins. And with 16 electoral votes to spare. So, what's left? Aside of Ohio - which in this scenario he already lost - Obama has a lead of less-than 6 points in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Obama could lose BOTH Minnesota and New Hampshire and still win:

Obama 272
McCain 266

Or, he could lose Virgina and still win if he retains New Hampshire and Minnesota:

Obama 273
McCain 265

But if disaster does indeed strike, and Obama loses all the toss-up states along with Florida and Ohio, then either Virginia or New Hampshire + Minnesota are our only hope.

[skooooo]

1. Remember, New Hampshire..

...is in the northwest!

:eyes:

[Ian_rd]

2. That's why it's called a "doomsday" scenario.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

3. We can see Russia!

It's nice for our little northwestern state to feel so important.

[Ian_rd]

4. Pollster just moved Ohio from "Leaning Obama" to "Toss Up" and he's lost half a point in Florida ...

I hope I'm not predicting the future here