My wife's theory about Palin...

[sendero]

... days after Palin was chosen, my wife offered up this theory. She believes that the party bosses forced McCain to pick her, because they don't want to win.

With an almost certain Dem congressional majority and a country in financial chaos, they wanted to throw the election, hoping to be able to blame this mess on Democrats.

Palin lets them shore up their base while guaranteeing a loss.

The biggest hole in the theory is that the economic mess is coming too early to blame it on Dems, but when there is no quick fix (as there will not be) - they will blame that on the Dems instead.

What do ya'll think?

[NC_Nurse]

1. I actually think they thought she would fake her way through better than she

has. They wanted a new face, a woman, someone who solidified the base. I don't think McLame
wanted her, but that doesn't matter now. I think they were probably pretty shocked at how pathetic
she has been on the national stage. Just desserts, IMO.

[Kazak]

2. I have thought that many times...

Even before Palin was chosen, it looked like they didn't really want to win. But then, if you consider the investigations that are sure to come with at Dem victory, then it gets confounding! A R win guarantees 4 more years of cover up, so I don't know...

[awoke_in_2003]

20. Me too...

when McCain won the primaries, I felt they were throwing the election. Chickens will be coming home to roost, soon.

[JI7]

3. i disagree, he thought he would win Hillary women plus Evangelicals

i don't think he wanted to pick her but others convinced him she would help him win.

he got the Evangelicals but not only didn't get the Hillary voters, he lost some Republican women who would have voted for him if he had picked someone who wasn't an idiot.

[Chorophyll]

6. Yes. I think the Repugs went into this thing

with their usual arrogance and lack of understanding. They failed to notice (or care) that the country has changed since 2004, and that people have woken up. They really thought they could get by with this train-wreck of a campaign.

[Arkansas Granny]

12. That's my take too. They were counting on Hillary's supporters flocking to Palin.

That didn't happen, for a variety of reasons, and now he's stuck with Sarah. She has been better for Democrats than she has been for Republicans.

[awoke_in_2003]

23. "That didn't happen, for a variety of reasons"

Main one being that Hillary supporters are smart enough to know what dangers this woman presents to women's righst. We know Hillary Clinton, Sarah is no Hillary Clinton :)

P.S. It is real easy- one ticket has the author of the Violence Against Women Act on it, the other has a governor who charged rape victims for their crime kits.

[bunnies]

4. I think they thought all women would flock to her.

She does have a vagina after all.

[McCCain4retirment]

5. The republicans are throwing McCain under the buss

so the next coming or Regan can run in '12

[willing dwarf]

7. I"m starting to wonder if Paulson is the anti-Republican

..or something like that, which would make your wife's theory still workable.

Listening to Kevin Phillips bemoan Paulson on NPR has got me wondering if perhaps someone turned Paulson to help engineer a crisis too early. After 9/11 and all of that, I've come to figure that there's no number of bodies the power keepers (the powers behind the "power" if you will)won't be willing to walk over to keep their agenda on track.

Now what that is, and who are these keepers is a question beyond my reckoning. I am weary of trying to look behind the veil and scry the movements of these shadow figures.

But all of that is just free floating paranoia...

[gateley]

8. Disagree. The Republicans ALWAYS want to win. Regardless of how bad it would

get, they'd just blame the Dems anyway, like they always do.

[Demi_Babe]

9. Disagree wholeheartedly

[ironrooster]

10. Sendero

I have to concur with MC Nurse. They were trying to create a "She-Reagan" - to appeal to all the "down-homers".

That said, your wife is probably correct that they see the next four years as a time to rebuild an opposition party.

If the Dem's are smart - the news media will constantly be leaked interesting tidbits relating to the last 8 years...

People need to understand what got us in the predicament in the first place.

[ScreamingMeemie]

11. I think they thought they could pull Clinton supporters.

I think they thought men would fall in love with her and vote McCain for that reason.
I think they wanted to draw the Religious right back to the fold... this, they accomplished.
I think they thought the "hockey/soccer" moms would run to the polls...

[awoke_in_2003]

29. "thought men would fall in love with her"

sad commentary on us men. How anyone could fall in love with a woman with her lack of intelligence, surplus of hate, and a voice that could cut through diamonds is beyond this man. Now, Rachel Maddow, on the other hand, is the type of woman any smart man could fall in love with- brains and beauty (yes, I know, it is a hopeless fantasy of mine, but one can dream :))

On edit: changed "hope" to "dream"

[ScreamingMeemie]

33. Dream, dear friend, dream...

That's what makes this party so much more than that one.

They would never be smart enough to really know what men, and women alike, would go for. :)

[awoke_in_2003]

34. Last time I mentioned my futile crush

on Rachel, more than 1 man came out to me and said they agreed. I think we formed a new group- Maddow Anonymous, to help us get over our unrequited love :)

[Avalux]

13. Nice theory but unlikely. Of course they want to win.

I do agree McCain was forced to pick Palin - but it was to shore up the GOP base. Here's my theory...

The GOP svengalis picked a female Bush to run with McCain. They thought they could take an unknown charismatic figure and mold her into someone the American people (especially the GOP base) would love. They wanted to get Hillary's supporters as well. Look what they were able to do with Bush; they successfully turned him into a good ol' cowboy everyone wanted to have a beer with.

The problem with all of this is that they didn't take into account they might fail. Palin has turned out to be a nightmare for them. They overestimated the stupidity of the American people and thought they could fool them with another idiot (a worse idiot).

They other important factors - they underestimated the power of the Obama movement and how the economy is the all-powerful voting barometer.

Of course they want to win and they're still going to try, even after the election. If Obama wins, they will be screaming election fraud and will try to invalidate the results.

[enough]

14. I began wondering about this when they picked McCAIN.

Seemed like such an obviously weak candidate that I wondered whether the party had simply given up on this election cycle altogether and just let whoever wanted it have it.

Not that they WANTED to lose, but that they they knew they would lose and just surrendered.

[RichGirl]

27. That's when I thought they wanted to lose.

The right caters to their base, they need their base....yet they pick McCain who the base hates the most! So their first challenge in an election that was already full of challenges for them was to get the base to accept someone that they previously couldn't stand. After having offended the base, they then picked Palin as running mate who offended the THINKING members of the repubican party.

[woodsprite]

15. I've been thinking along the lines that the want to lose so we'll

repair what the chimp has broken. After all, if they totally kill our economy, true, they'll have a land of serfs, but they'll also be cutting off their nose to spite their face. They need us to fix the economy for them so they can rape and pillage some more. It's no more fun once the bank's busted.

[RoadRage]

16. I don't think they vetted her, or had aclue.

I think they initially thought a new pretty face would swoon the men, and get the women who wanted Hillary. They thought her conservative ideology would get the social con's out for her, and McCain would draw the moderate and Independents. In their mind back in late August.. this plan was BRILLIANT, and it was a sure fire win.

The problem was that like ALL McCain decisions.. they only thought one step ahead like in checkers instead of 5 steps ahead like in Chess (and the Obama campaign). When you're playing checkers against a grand-master.. your gonna get your ass whipped. He'll let you take a rook or two because he knows you'll box yourself up soon enough and he'll get your queen and check-mate you before you know what hit ya. That's what's happening to McCain right now.. he doesn't even realize he's in check.

If the McCain camp had properly vetted Gov. Palin, and knew about all of the "issues".. she wouldn't have been picked. But after they picked her.. they had to start slabbing lipstick on the pig... but the only people who think she's pretty anymore are her base... and that's not who's gonna win this election.

[MrsBrady]

17. they didn't need Palin to blame the Democrats

they will blame it on the Dems, because they have ruined us economically for a generation, and they will blame the non-magical ability to clean it up right away on the Dems...

they will say "See, see the Dems can't fix it. The don't know what they are doing."

All the while, however, Palin is not going to lose here even though she will not be a VP this time around. Republican's don't care about scandal or ethics, and she's got good press now. So she should be just fine.
Unfortunately I think she will be important later on.

I hope I am wrong.

[islandmkl]

18. i just think the arrogant a-holes just f***ed up....

the age of rove is passing...

[Frustratedlady]

19. I thought they predicted Dobson, early on. What happened to that?

I'm glad this is on, because we were just discussing this subject on another group and I was going to ask if anyone knew for sure, posted it earlier and I missed it.

I can't believe SOMEONE hadn't at least partially vetted her. I could see the evangelicals jumping in when McCain was so weak and confused as to his VP choice. "Hey, we've got this (hot) governor in Alaska with 80% approval rating, 5 kids and she's been saved." How could he miss? One look and he was convinced...couldn't wait to introduce her to Washington...couldn't wait to...well, anyway...

[izzie]

21. As the saying goes about having a theory, mine is

McCain picked her as he wanted to force this thinking that he was what he keeps telling us, the out of the ball park thinker and doer. He has never been a leader but a man with a name. He does these odd things to make it seem he is what he wants to be. There are the work horses of the world and few 'Seabiscuits'. Most of us never become a 'Seabiscuit' even if we say we are.

[Caria]

22. I think they are willing to do that now

But I also think they misjudged their ability to control the message: I think they thought they could keep running on abortion & Palin seemed like the perfect poster girl for that.

Who knew she'd be even harder for them to train than W had been?

[Vinca]

24. I disagree. After Hillary's showing, the Republicans had to put

a woman on their ticket, the theory being all the voters with vaginas would line up to vote for the McCain ticket. That's how smart they think women are. The question for me is why they didn't opt for a qualified Republican woman like Olympia Snowe who might actually have done them some good.

[bushisanidiot]

25. I think they picked her cuz they want to prove that women aren't cut out for the job.

so, I think it was to discourage Hillary and other women from running for president again any time soon.

[demokatgurrl]

26. I could believe they don't want to win

The next President is walking into a huge pile of crap- many many problems that cannot be solved in 4 years. It's likely that President will be a one-term President. If it's a Dem, the Repukes can come in and "save" us. It's probably their best shot at getting back in power. So they "let" a Dem win, and then sabotage him at every turn.


Of course, going against this theory is that they are already trying to steal it.

[Stop Cornyn]

28. I think your wife is partly right. I don't think they want to lose, but I think the choice of Palin

was a tactic to inspire the based to help with down-ballot races and it was basically a recognition that McCain-Romney was going to lose, McCain-Lieberman was going to lose, McCain-Huckabee was going to lose, McCain-Giuliani was going to lose, etc. so they may as well pick someone who (1) there is no data to confirm how she will do (even though they knew McCain-Palin was probably going to lose there really wasn't enough to make that as certain of a loss as the McCain-OtherGuy tickets which were poll-tested loser tickets) and (2) who would help the Repubs avoid a down-ballot disaster by appealing to the base because we are heading into a redistricting cycle and if there had been a down-ballot disaster in the the Statehouse across "redstate" America, the Repub's would have lost the once-a-decade opportunity to gerrymander their "redstate" congressional districts.

In sum: the Palin pick was essentially throwing in the towel on the McCain presidency in the hope of "re-branding" the Republican party to restore the ticket's appeal to its own base in traditionally Repub states with the expectation that such a move would help Repub candidates down-ballot.

That's my view.

[Myrina]

30. Yep, I've thought that for a long time ...

...and its also crossed my mind that's (one of many reasons) why Gore didn't jump back in ... who in Goddess' name would want to have to deal with the mess that's going to be left at the end of January?

The GOP will go back under its rock until everything's straightened out and there's a budget surplus back in the coffers - like Clinton/Gore left them - and then steal some elections so they can start to pillage all over again.

Is there any way we can just outlaw the Republican Party as a whole? :evilfrown:

[nichomachus]

31. The way I see it -- he didn't pick her

She was inserted into the process by the Committee on National Policy -- Dobson, Tim LeHaye, Ollie North, etc. They were the ones who "vetted" her and apparently she met their qualifications.

The super-secret CNP has been drooling over the prospect of getting a "Margaret Thatcher type" into office for a long time. I realize that Maggie Thatcher was far more qualified than Sarah, but that's not important to them.

I think they realized that McCain was doomed, but putting Sarah into the VP spot gave her TV face time, national recognition, and a chance to connect with the wacko base of the GOP, something she's doing admirably. It was her entrance on the national stage -- nothing more. They never expected her to win.

Then, they'll have four years to groom her and give her more exposure.

When McCain and Palin are beaten November 4, McCain will slink back to the Senate and into relative obscurity.

Sarah, on the other hand, will start making the rounds. She'll be on TV as a "commentator" until you're sick of seeing her face. She'll have the rough edges smoothed over by the corporate media with a constant barrage of "poor misunderstood Sarah." Don't forget, the media can create any reality they want in about three weeks.

She'll be carefully groomed -- she's very good at learning lines -- and they've already found that the media will comply with demands that she speak only on her terms. She'll be coached, and drilled, and coached again. Someone will ghost-write a book that will come out under her name.

As much as I'd like to see her become a footnote to history, I fear we're going to be seeing a lot more of her.

[wishlist]

32. I think he desperately needed to energize his base of right wing fundies

First of all he needed to motivate the fundies and their 'family values' fundie church leaders to bring out the faithful en masse to be enthusiastic about getting out to vote. Secondly, he thought he could capture many disaffected women who were disappointed over Hillary and resentful of Obama (as absurd as that seems to us) and Thirdly, she would be a nice safe pleasant second banana who would not outshine him and would follow orders.

Many of the more competent heavy hitters either failed the religious litmus tests such as Romney, Lieberman, Ridge, Giuliani or had some negative baggage such as Huckabee (who may have turned him down anyway). Pawlenty was probably the only serious choice who met the criteria, but he would not have enthused the crowds or been an attention getter for McCain's campaign. They just didn't predict so much negative fallout over her incompetence and unprofessionalism.

[Essene]

35. Quite the opposite... here's why... (she was on the bottom of the deck of candidates)

Let's agree that Mccain doesn't like being told what to do and that something is fishy in the Palin pick.

We hear that Rove wanted Romney. Mccain wanted Lieberman. I'm sure many others wanted Tom Ridge or other picks.

It was William Kristol who was pitching Palin... and i have to conclude that she wasnt seriously vetted by the campaign.


So, let's put these together and imagine the week before the GOP Convention...




Mccain was dead serious about Lieberman and dead serious about facing an open revolt in the GOP, probably attempting to move the campaign back to center and to call the religious-right's bluff.

His campaign was likely in heated debates about this and with different RNC camps.

As Convention time approached, he was told "there will be several state delegations who will openly revolt against Lieberman." Mccain probably initially told them to F*** off, but then was roped in by his top advisers, perhaps by Lieberman himself.

I don't imagine Mccain is the type to get hands-on when it comes to the gritty work of reviewing details, so he probably barely followed the vetting of all the VP candidates. He probably had a "read the back cover" depth of knowledge about all these candidates, beyond what he just knew from his experience in Congress.

I'd wager that Mccain just HATES Romney and refused to accept the Rove camps push.

Backed into a corner, Mccain's erratic behavior and frustration made him sloppy.

I think he picked Palin partially to spite all these jerks pushing their different favorites.

He knew a bit about her, heard her "back cover" story about being a maverick, being a real christian conservative, being a real folksy type. I bet the campaign hadnt put her through a serious round of vetting because i bet she was never seriously a contender.

Let me say that again. :)

I think the reason Palin wasnt vetted fully was because she was towards the bottom of the pile. Her legal problems and other stuff likely got her crossed out as a national asset in 2008. I am saying i think Mccain was backed into a corner... remembered her... and pulled her from the bottom of the deck and said "fine, screw you a**holes, im going with her because she stands up to a**holes like you."

I'd wager EVERYTHING that this is precisely how it happened.

I think the campaign then went about trying to make the best of it. And only slowly did it dawn on Mccain that it was a very poor choice and that she really wasn't what the back cover said.

[no_hypocrisy]

36. I posit the Mel Brooks' theory of Palin.

To quote Zero Mostel in The Producers, "Where did we go right?"

There is the ever-present danger with the prospect of control of enough of the voting machines, John McCain AND Sarah Palin could be running this country come January, 2009. Just the fact that it could possibly happen is unsettling.

She may or may not have been vetted, but she's here and she's not going away and she has an agenda.

We can mock and laugh at her. But what if she is actually installed like * and Cheney were installed. THAT wasn't supposed to happen too. But it did.

[Flash Bazbo]

37. Between Bill Clinton, FNMA and 2 years of a Democratic Congress...

conservatives already blame it on Democrats. (They do. Not me. Don't yell at me.) Couple that with the arch-conservatives loathing of McCain the theory looks plausible.

[uponit7771]

38. At this point I'm leaning towards that opinion also, there's NO WAY a reasonable person would take

...McKlan seriously right now.

He LOOKS like he doesn't know what the hell he's doing

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

39. Interesting theory.

[Butch350]

40. You're making it too complicated!!

It was just a Bone Head plan that back fired!