More detail on Missouri's HUGE SWING to Obama

[Terran]

This thread (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7435214&mesg_id=7435214) really caught me off guard the other day because for months, Missouri has been slightly for McCain and had then inched toward a statistical tie. I had my doubts about it because there wasn't a lot of information at the link, but at firedupmissouri.com today, there was more detail provided. I really think Republicans expected to win Missouri again, so this is some incredibly bad news for McCain. And the republican replacement for governor Matt Blunt is getting his butt kicked, he's down more than 20 points in this poll!

http://www.firedupmissouri.com/node/7698

In Missouri, John McCain's Lead Among White Voters Has Evaporated: In an election for President of the United States in battleground Missouri today, 10/13/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama has momentum and a meaningful advantage in SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll, conducted for KMOX radio in St Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City. The contest in Missouri has swung 10-points to Obama since SurveyUSA's last track point, 3 weeks ago. Then, McCain led by 2. Today, Obama leads, 51% to 43%. Among white voters, McCain had led by 11. Today, tied. There is movement among men, where McCain had led, now trails; among women, where McCain had been tied, now trails; among higher-income voters, where McCain had led, now trails; and among Independents, where McCain had led, now trails. In greater St. Louis, Obama had led by 5, now by 22. In greater Kansas City, Obama had led by 16, now by 31.

--more at link--

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

1. Obama might win Missouri but I still think McCain gets Missoura. nt

[Terran]

2. No doubt

Missoura is where all our politicans live, by law.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

4. Ah yes I get it now.

:-)

[KansasVoter]

3. Wow!! Down 31 in Kansas City...That explains....

why McLame does not have a Office in Kansas City.

I am working the Kansas City office on the 3rd and 4th. For every vote we can add in KC it is a vote we cancel out for McLame in the rural areas!!!

[Terran]

6. Regarding the rural vote...

which is of course so pivotal here: I had read, some time even before the economic meltdown took over the news, that McCain only had a ten point lead among rural voters nationally, and that this wasn't considered nearly enough for him to win. I can only imagine that's declined even more by now.

[RoadRage]

15. My brother is in Kansas City..

Fire-Fighter / Paramedic... originally very hesitant about Obama (but due to being a Union guy - he'd just not vote at all then vote for McCain). He, and almost all of the guys at his station are pulling for Obama now.

Race was an issue here... a lot of the "white" fire-fighters have been passed over for Affirmitive Action (a few black guys got on the department even though they were slower on the physical portion or didn't score as high on the written portion of the tests).

But, they realize that Affirmitive Action is just one small issue in the whole scheme of things - and have turned the page.

Gobama!

[cyndensco]

5. Sweet!

I wonder what role Sen. McCaskill has played in Obama's growing support in Missouri. I have loved her ever since she endorsed Obama citing her children as her influence.

[OneGrassRoot]

7. I think Rednecks 4 Obama may be the reason! :)

http://rednecks4obama.com/page3.php

[ginnyinWI]

8. Obama's momentum will bring even more people in.

People want to be on the winning side, especially Republicans. The ones I'm talking to have pretty much given up, and say they don't want to talk about politics anymore. They may not bother to vote and attach themselves to a loser. It's probably the same in Missouri. Those on the fence will go Obama, die hard repubs will stay home.

[Alter Ego]

12. There are no gay marriage questions on the ballot in MO this year, right?

I would hate for that to somehow bring out the wingnuts and kill Obama's chances.

[ginnyinWI]

14. it's funny how those social issues aren't getting so much attention.

They still come up, but aren't being pushed so much on the stump so don't have people going nuts over it. Maybe they're getting tired of them with the economy on center stage. The die hards still won't vote for a pro choice candidate though. But the gay marriage issue is practically non existant.

[Terran]

16. No, there aren't

We had that crap going on in 2004.

[Alter Ego]

9. The state that gave us John Ashcroft could go blue in this election cycle?

Well slap me stupid.

Of course, you also gave us the Carnahans...they were aight.

And the thing about Missouri is that you can make a run for the state by just winning the urban areas--I saw the Obama/Clinton map for Missouri in the primaries, and Obama won maybe 7 counties and somehow won the primary.

[HeeBGBz]

11. I live in a part of Missouri that has been staunch Republican since the civil war

Deep rural. Near Branson. There are Obama yard signs EVERYWHERE. Many more than McCain. Most of the people who have Obama signs have more than one sign on their property. I go down the road and see Obama Obama Obama. Woo Hoo!

[RollWithIt]

13. I did want to point out that the area you are talking about was staunch Dem until the 60s

But whatever! Turnin around!

[Terran]

18. The primary was *extremely* close for Obama, but

I think what you say is indicative of how the urban areas are actually going to pull it out for Obama and trump the normal influence of the rural areas. In most Missouri statewide elections, if you can't appeal to the rural counties, you're toast. And I think he actually *does* appeal to a lot of rural people now on economic issues.

[serrano2008]

19. We also tried to make the world forget about Ashcroft

Remember, he lost the election in 2000 to Mel Carnahan who was dead by election day from a plane crash.

Of course, the hard core Repubes out there will say that Carnahan got the sympathy vote but I think the rest of us were expecting Carnahan to win anyways.

Like Michael Moore pointed out in Fahrenheit 9/11, you gotta be pretty bad to lose to a dead guy.

[archiemo]

10. McCaskill has been a terrific surrogate...

I've loved her since she started out in Jackson County (KC). She's a great spokesperson for Obama...very articulate and gets her points across fluently. She kicked Sen. Bond's butt after the VP debate...both were asked for their thoughts on the debate and Bond went first with some canned crap and when they swung to McCaskill she destroyed him point by point!

[occe]

17. Fun to read and Obama will definitely snag Missouri on Nov. 4