Can someone tell me why Obama has slid in some polls? He is behaved as a leader should

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

O.K., before ya'll flame me, I know and fully understand that national polls don't mean shit, but polls do have an impact on public opinion, on framing by the candidates and the media pundits...and a psychological impact on voters.

Now yesterday and weeks before that, we have witnessed a true leader in Barack Obama! He has behaved presidential at every turn and yesterday he presented a very specific plan for the middle class.

On the other hand, McCoward is still just that--a coward. He has done nothing. Has said nothing. And his sidekick, Mooselini, has just been embroiled in a troopergate scandal where it was reported that she did indeed abuse her power, no matter how much she lies about it.

So why, pray God, why are the national polls tightening?!??!

I'm curious, cautious, and paranoid.

[melody]

1. LOL! Because they're not tightening?

Nice try, but no the latest polls I've seen have widened. The state polls are even more impressive.

[Genevieve]

2. What are you talking about? nt

[davepc]

3. He peaked too early!

:sarcasm:

[chitty]

4. I think the term slide is a little to

"head on fire-ish".

[WeDidIt]

5. You must be seeing polls nobody else is

Because no national polls are tightening.

[cali]

6. Most aren't tightening. None are tightening beyond statistical noise.

That's not to say they won't. Don't forget that this is a divided country. Obama holds a strong lead- beyond the MOE. Some of you seem to think that Obama should be leading by 20. Be happy with what we have.

[demokatgurrl]

30. A 20 point lead wouldn't be a bad thing- make it harder to steal. n/t

[Connie_Corleone]

7. WHA...??

[AllieB]

8. Usually because certain polls oversample Republicans (Gallup, Rasmussen, for example)

Remember, it's not the national polls, but the state polls that count for the electoral vote total. I usually go to these websites for some good analysis:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.pollster.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[Wednesdays]

9. Links, please.

:shrug:

[BumRushDaShow]

10. There is no "national poll tightening".

The meme came out when Gallup showed a (usual) weekend shift for Obama, and it went from 11 points to 9 points difference between he and McKKKlan. But yesterday, Gallup's daily was back up to double-digits again. The rest of the national polls have trended Obama upwards and McKKKlan downwards.

[Loge23]

11. This can't happen

I truly fear for this country - and our safety - if they steal this election.
There's no way they can win with the stakes so high for the future.
They have nothing. If they "win" - oh boy - things will get real ugly, I fear.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. I love DU, but ya'll cannot help but be smart-asses most of the time.

These numbers from Kos:

10/14 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 52, McCain 41
by DemFromCT
Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 03:59:28 AM PDT

Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 52-41. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 52 (52) 41 (40) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 49 (48) 43 (44) 2.8 LV

Yesterday
Battleground: 51 (51) 43 (43) 3.5 LV last reported Friday
Rasmussen: 50 (51) 45 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 48 (49) 42 (41) 3.4 LV
Gallup: 51 (50) 41 (43) 2 RV See also theLV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP: 45 (--) 43 (--) 3.3 LV

ABC-WaPo: 53 (50) 43 (46) 3 LV
D-Corps (D): 50 (48) 40 (45) 4.3 LV
USAToday/Gallup:52 (--) 45 (--) 3 LV II, no trend
USAToday/Gallup:50 (44) 46 (54) 4 LV I, trend
USAToday/Gallup:51 (46) 44 (50) 3 RV, trend

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +13 Sat, +11 Sun and +10 Mon. The next and last debate is tomorrow. Friday will start to reflect that event.

It may be too early to tell, but McCain may get some benefit from dropping the guilt-by-association attacks that have not been working. His fav/unfavs have recovered a tad, along with Palin's. They're still pretty dismal (- 6 for McCain and - 18 for Palin.)

There is yet another tracker out. The IBD/TIPP poll debuted Monday with Obama-McCain at 45-43, MoE +/- 3.3.

In contrast to other polls, which show Obama leading McCain by 4 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) to 11 (Newsweek), the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll debuts today with Obama up just 2 points with 13% (including 25% of independents) undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters.

I have no idea what their weighting is, or their party ID. They don't seem to push leaners (which they should do this close to the election.)

[melody]

16. Well, keep a good thought for your team

But I still see no tightening beyond statistical noise.

[krkaufman]

18. Well, one rationalization could be that, regardless of conventional wisdom ...

... McCain's negative attacks are having a slight effect. I don't see why this year would be all the much different from years past, when negative campaigning has been wildly successful. I think the economic crisis will limit the potential of the negative attacks, though.

[Clio the Leo]

36. Yeah, that's what I think, he has reved his base up a bit..

.... causing NATIONAL polls (which include red states) to tighten while we simultaneously see battleground states continuing to widen.

Battlegrounds surge for Obama + Red states improve for McCain = slightly closer national numbers

But I'm no expert.

[krkaufman]

45. That's a good analysis, in my opinion. n/t

[Brotherjohn]

24. Just about everything you point out is w/in MOE (it IS "noise"). The IBD/TIPP poll is new...

... so based on that one, you can't say "the polls are tightening". We have no idea what that poll is doing, or will be doing. It has no history.

Of course it affects the average (should one choose to include it). But throwing a brand new poll into the mix that's on the low end doesn't mean "the polls are tightening". One look at the RCP trendline makes it clear that the Obama lead is still trending upwards; there has only been a tiny (w/in MOE) downtick in the past day or two.

[Brotherjohn]

34. See... Obama upticks again. IBD/TIPP (+2) is averaged into RCP today, but now so is Battleground...

...in which Obama is now up by 13 (was 8). As a result, Obama's RCP average lead was 6.8 this morning, and it's 7.4 now.

His actual lead hasn't just bumped up over half a point; it's just noise and what polls are averaged in and when.

[goddess40]

13. Go to this site, it will cheer you up.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

What is the mission of this website? Most broadly, to accumulate and analyze polling and political data in way that is informed, accurate and attractive. Most narrowly, to give you the best possible objective assessment of the likely outcome of upcoming elections.

[Kokonoe]

32. Huston, we have lift off.

[goddess40]

33. Warms your heart, doesn't it?

I wish this election was held today instead of in three weeks from today.

[twistedliberal]

35. The "Win Percentage" pie is my favorite part of that site...

Every day that little red slice shrinks a little more. :)

[krkaufman]

14. It would probably be helpful if you were to have provided example numbers ...

... for which you have concern.

[bunkerbuster1]

15. Some polls are going to close. Some outliers were too high...

I never thought Obama would really take an 11 point lead in the actual popular vote come nov. 4; nobody's had a margin like that in ages.

[melody]

17. No candidate has been like Obama ... and no situation has been this dire.

This is an entirely new playing field.

[bunkerbuster1]

19. If an 11 point lead is due mostly to a dire situation...

and people are just scared shitless maybe it'd be better if it did close a little!

(just sayin'. Obviously, on a certain level, I'd like for him to get Saddam Hussein-like numbers, but this is America.)

[Mass]

21. delete

[melody]

22. I'm saying there are a multitude of differences in this race over the others

It's impossible to pinpoint which variation is making for the advantage but it's clearly there.

Obama was 15 points ahead early in the race also.

[mohc]

20. For the latest polls the trends have been

Battleground 0
Diego -2
Gallup +3
R2K -1
Ras -1
Zogby +2

Do not focus on one poll. Paying too much attention to Gallup right now would make you think things are going to blow open, and paying too much attention to Diego might make you think its about to tighten up. Taking all the polls together, things look very stable right now. But if you had to look for an overall trend, it actually appears polls are widening not tightening up.

[Brotherjohn]

26. Also, do not focus on one day's "trends". They are not trends, they are noise.

Although I'm sure that's what you mean when you said look for the overall trend (which shows a widening Obama lead).

[occe]

23. Because

McCain is having his "surge" now. Things should get tighter as Nov. 4 nears. It worries me greatly too, but Obama still holds a decent lead.

[Mass]

25. I am happy that some polls are closing a little bit. I was getting wary with this "we have won"

atmosphere all around. We need people to be mobilized, and the best way for that is for them to understand that this election will not be won before Nov 5 (after the last vote has been casted).

There are multiple reasons why the polls could see to tighten a little bit, some of them having to do with McCain being portrayed as nice, some of them simply about sampling, ... However, Obama is up in every single poll, which is good. For the rest, the only thing that matters is to fight until this election is won, as if we were 2 points behind.

[Jennicut]

27. We are up and have the lead. The polls fluctuate all over the place sometimes.

However, Obama seems to be able to keep a steady 5-7 point lead in every poll and in some its more than that. That is key. Also, look at the state polls. The "battleground" polls are not even battlegrounds in some of those states, they are solid Obama or leaning Obama. McLame has a lot of ground to make up and I just don't see it.

[Zynx]

28. Because you're a terrible political analyst?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. I'm a political analyst? That's news to me...

But I love you, too! ;)

[Brotherjohn]

29. More to the point of your OP, Obama HAS behaved as a leader, and that IS probably the reason why...

... he has pulled out to a significant lead averaging about 7% (even when the IBD/TIPP Tracker is added; see RCP).

As many have pointed out here, it IS way to early to say any momentary downticks in his overall growing lead mean that trend is decreasing or reversing. But even if it is, such a drastic upswing in the polls as Obama has experienced in the past month (and concurrent McCain downswing) could not be expected to be sustained until the election. That would mean he would go into the election with a lead of something like 55-40, and that is simply NOT going to happen. It is bound to level off.

[progressivebydesign]

37. Sorry. They just aren't tightening. That was a fantasy uttered out loud by McCain's people...

there is no evidence of tightening at all. A few polls, which have not been considered before in the scheme of things, showed McCranky up a point, but 99% of the polls still show Obama with a good lead.

I understand what you're trying to say.. yeah.. it's frustrating because it would seem that someone as solid as Obama and Biden would be ahead by.. like 30 points in the polls. But.. sadly, some people are so deeply partisan and others are so brainwashed, that they insist on voting against their own interests. How in the world anyone could watch McCain NOW and still vote for him is beyond me.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[backscatter712]

40. fivethirtyeight.com hasn't moved much, except in our direction.

Nate Silver and his number crunching hasn't shown any improvement for McCain's situation at all.

Excuse me if I trust more in the guys who do the statistical analyses and Monty Carlo simulations instead of chasing the inaccurate, wildly-fluctuating poll-of-the-day.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

41. They has not slud.

[jberryhill]

42. Statistical noise

The larger trends matter more than day-to-day fluctuations.

[HughMoran]

43. oh well

These types of posts just keep on coming every 10-20 minutes :(

[A-Schwarzenegger]

44. !

Oops.