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Edited on Mon Oct-13-08 09:08 PM by Drunken Irishman
His lead now sits at 50-42 on average.
So in three weeks, Obama is +2 and Mccain is -3.
Not much shift in this race.
I bring this up because tomorrow will mark the final three weeks of this campaign. The race has been generally stable nationally for the last three weeks. Yes, eight points is a lot bigger than three, but it shows you how difficult of a task McCain has to not only get this back into a dead heat, but win this thing. Obama has had a fantastic three weeks and it's been a net gain of only five points.
If McCain has an equally fantastic three weeks, at worse, Obama will probably hold a 48-45 lead on election day. In my opinion, that is unlikely, but the worst case scenario here.
Just thought I'd throw that out there. Three weeks is a ton of time, but the race hasn't dramatically shifted in that span. Obama was already trending up again and his lead isn't much different than it was three weeks before that, where he held a 49-44 lead on average. Of course, the Republican Convention gave McCain a huge bounce, but that lead only lasted eight days and it was no larger than 2.9.
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