Florida just flipped to leaning blue on RCP EV map

[DCBob]

Obama/Biden: 304 McCain/Palin: 158

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[NightWatcher]

1. if we take Florida, that gives Obama 291 ev's by conservative counts

http://www.270towin.com/

[BlueManDude]

2. McCain will take both FL and OH - people are getting too giddy around here.

[JoePhilly]

3. Still forces mcCain to DEFEND them. And we don't need them.

[BlueManDude]

12. Point is - can we win without having to take FL or OH?

I'm not counting on either one of those two and anyone who does is fucking crazy.

[JoePhilly]

22. Fair ... I don't count them either ...

[DCBob]

4. Why are you so pessimistic?

[BlueManDude]

6. I just don't think FL and OH are ultimately winnable. He needs to get to 272

without them. I'm pessimistic about Missouri too. This is going to be a lot harder than most people around here seem to realize. It's like they've never been through an election before.

Colorado, New Mex, Nevada, Iowa are the keys.

[msallied]

8. I'm starting to wonder if you've been through an election pre-2000.

[TheWraith]

9. Have a drink and look at the polling numbers.

[DCBob]

10. I felt that way a few months ago but the dynamics have changed.

This financial crisis and the idiotic way McCain responded and cool calm presidential way Obama responded has now put more states in Obama's column.

[hogwyld]

5. Oh Noesssss! We Are Doomed

TIme to leave the planet with Tina!

[msallied]

7. Why do you say so?

On what do you base this opinion of yours?

[BlueManDude]

11. Obama has a rock solid 244 and this is without giving him NH or ME.

I'm being very conservative in my estimate. The question is - how can he get there WITHOUT having to win FL or OH?

Call me what you will but I don't want to count on those two states.

[DCBob]

13. Obama can win without FL or OH but...

he is likely to win both FL and OH based on latest polls and trends. Why deny it??

[BlueManDude]

15. because the election is in 3 weeks and the momentum will shift

this race is going tighten.

[DCBob]

Why do you say that? I have heard the Obama campaign has just started their October offensive...

and they have about $100M advantage over McCain. How exactly will the race tighten?

[BlueManDude]

18. Look - if you think he's going to have a Reagan 80 or 84 win, great

I admire you're enthusiam and I'm not here to thrwo cold water on it.

But counting on winning places like OH and NC and Fl and VA is nuts. If they take care of business in NH and ME and then CO, NM, NV and IA those other states won't matter.

McCain will spend all he's got to win OH and FL - he's got to and it will probably be just enough for him to win those states.

[DCBob]

21. I understand your concern but at least provide supportive evidence.

For example you say "winning places like OH and NC and Fl and VA is nuts". Why?? Please explain. The polls suggest otherwise. The latest polls in VA show Obama up by approximately the same as WI, MI and MN. Is winning WI, MI and MN also "nuts"?

[Chichiri]

14. That's fair. We need to keep working as though we are going to lose FL and OH.

We probably won't, but just in case. We can't let up, not for a moment.

[Zynx]

17. What the fuck is wrong with you?

[BlueManDude]

19. So you'd feel confidant on midnight Nov 4th if it came down to FL or OH?

The question is - what the fuck is wrong with you?

[Zynx]

20. It won't. They are gravy, but we'll get them.

[Faygo Kid]

16. I've got Obama at 337, and that's with Florida going to McCain.

Tough sledding for McCain IF the election were held tomorrow.

We'll see.