The truth isn't in the poll numbers.

[Avalux]

If you wanna know exactly how close the race isn't, pay attention to where the candidates are campaigning.

McCain/Palin are spending time and money in places that are ordinarily Republican strongholds; places that they shoudn't have to worry about. They are desperate to motivate their base to vote. Very few of their efforts are in places considered Dem territory - they have no chance of swinging anything their way. Palin's stunt at the Flyers game didn't turn out so well.

There is nothing to indicated a shift in momentum or tightening of the race. Sure it could happen, but there's no reason why it would.

The only thing that might help McCain is a national security crisis, but I doubt even that would change things much. People are done with McCain.

[Arugula Latte]

1. A manufactured "security crisis" could blow up in their faces, and they know it.

[Avalux]

2. Yes. it very well could.

Gonna be a long 3 weeks.