Have you guys considered this might be like 2006?

[Zynx]

Remember 2006? We started strong, had one brief period of tightening at the beginning of September with all of that terrorism scare crap about busting up some big plot, then opened our lead back up and that went straight through election day. We had a huge win, just as many predicted from the beginning of the campaign through the end. There was no mystery to it and relatively little suspense. When you cut through all of the statistical noise here, that's what seems to be happening again. I think when election night comes around and Obama wins by somewhere around 7-8 points, people will look back at all of the numbers and say, "Ya know, that was pretty predictable.".

[chascarrillo]

1. You bet I have! nt

[jobycom]

2. I'm one of the "We should stay sober and fight like we are 10 points down" folk...

But I really do believe that we are not only going to win in a landslide, but we are going to wipe the Republicans out of Congress. I think this is more like 1994, for us this time, than 06. I think that rather than just win big, we are experiencing a sea change in ideology.

[iamjoy]

3. Don't Take It For Granted

We cannot take it for granted. I say this not to be an alarmist, but to encourage you to do what you can TODAY and EVERY day for the next three weeks to help Democrats win. There is very little excuse to not be helping in some way.

If you are not in a swing state (Presidential), find a Congressional candidate to help. If your district is sohopelessly rigged that there's no real competition (one way or the other) AND there's no competitive race within 20 miles, find a state legislative race (or governor if that's up this year).

If there is truly nothing in your state, find out if you can do virtual phone banking from home or write letters to try and reach people in competitive states/races.

[Zynx]

5. I've donated $500 around the country. Believe me, I wouldn't do that if I believed

all was just simply going to fall into place. I just believe we are in very good shape and concern is unwarranted. At this point we should be working with the idea of making gains bigger.

[Iwasthere]

4. Yep

I also remember election night 2004. Late in the evening thinking, "We got it!!!" Then seeing b* go into the building with that smirk on his face, claiming victory (though he was behind, hmmm). I thought, "what the hell is that idiot smoking". Then in the wee hours the numbers flipped and the msm went silent. What would happen if Obama was 7 point ahead avg and then mysteriously McSame ended up ahead in the night?

I would rather that Obama was 12 points ahead avg. We all STILL need to work hard, till the last minute.

[unpossibles]

6. I think it will be, but I look at that differently

we could have won even more seats in 2006, and maybe did. We cannot ignore their attempts to steal elections, even when we win. Especially when we win.

[Zynx]

9. If they stole races, how come they didn't steal any of the Senate toss-ups?

[unpossibles]

16. I don't think they "stole races" so much as attempted to

by stealing/not counting votes.

Maybe I am wrong, but I think they still tried a small steal, not realizing the support we had overwhelmed their efforts.

[Overseas]

7. The results in 2006 were also manipulated.

Our win would have been bigger if the actual votes were allowed to stand unaltered.

www.stealingamericathemovie.com Stealing America: Vote by Vote is a wonderfully calm documentary that reviews the facts of recent election manipulations, including 2006.

Republicans use multiple methods to alter the results, not just electronic.

Purging voter rolls, misdirecting voters, challenging voters at the polls to slow things down and discourage people waiting in the long long lines, etc.

So we are hoping for a big enough landslide to overcome Republican cheating this time.

Or I'm hoping they'll let us in to rebuild the economy so the next Republican can have something to steal.

[Zynx]

8. I don't think so. Our results were almost dead nuts with polling.

Let me disprove your notion in a single case which is the senate races. 3 of our gains were by margins of just a percent or less: Missouri, Virginia, and Montana. If they had been able to manipulate just ONE race, the Senate would have been theirs. They didn't.

[PBS Poll-435]

11. I have a few that I believe were f'ed with

Madrid vs Wilson in NM

Pryce vs Kilroy in OH

Mean Jean vs Wulsin in OH


In a Democratic year where Ohio overwhelmingly voted in a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator (Defeating a moderate incumbent Republican,) there is certainly the appearance that something was tampered with. Especially in the Schmidt vs Wulsin race.

[Zynx]

12. Possible, but there's no convincing evidence of that.

[PBS Poll-435]

13. Very true, just the appearance...

Which makes me satisfied that Mary Jo Kilroy and Victoria Wulsin will be victorous on 11/4.

And that Heather Wilson will be banished (for the time-being) from the Federal Government.

[Cosmocat]

14. YEP ...

I DO think the Rs are good at a lot of voter disruption as the above poster noted, but the Ds ABSOLUTELY ran the table in the senate, we picked up EVERY possible spot there. We also got a lot of close House races, again, here in PA we got 3 of 4 REAL tight races.

No doubt they might have held back a couple of house races, but overall, 2006 broke about as good as it could have.

[treestar]

10. Good point - I remember the similar hand wringing

of 2006 and the dreaded defeat did not come.

Even right after the election, there was one big scare regarding a Dem senator who went to the hospital. That was going to ruin the Senate after Lieberman changed parties!

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Somehow this turned into a stolen election thread

The cynics just won't let go. I hope we win every razor tight race this year so the fraud crew has to scramble for bizarre application of their forte.

Great question by Zynx, in 2006 why didn't they steal the races that really mattered? It wasn't exactly a secret those were the tipping point races. Let's see, we really won by 5-8% but they can only steal a certain percentage and in those cases it wasn't quite enough. Whatever fits... :boring:

Anyway, regarding the similarity to 2006, I've started to consider the possibility over the past week or two. It shouldn't be that type of margin. A second term midterm like 2006 is a much more lopsided situational terrain than an open presidential race like 2008. This year always looked like 2-4 point edge as opposed to 5-7 logic in a second term midterm. But the economic collapse and McCain's related ineptitude works heavily in our favor. That can't be understated. Frankly, although my 401k looks pathetic right now I wouldn't mind the stock market remaining at 8000 range until election day. Today it soared almost 1000.

My long held belief in sports and politics is don't get carried away with recent events, or the extremes. The worst handicappers rely on extremes. McCain was never truly the favorite even when he led the polling for a while, yet you had Nate Silver on 538 listing McCain as nearly a 60% favorite. The foundational early indications normally take hold. Therefore I still expect the race to tighten and the second tier states to drift away, but Obama to win by small but decisive margin in the 2-4 range, exactly as it figured all year, a Democratic landscape.

[Zynx]

17. I have said from the beginning of this race I expected a 6-7 Obama win.

I believe from my observations that this economy is as bad as it has been in the last half-century. That results in decisive incumbent party losses.

[msallied]

18. I remember being so stupendously surprised in 2006

That my hope in the system that I felt had failed us was renewed. I retain that faith.

[TEXASYANKEE]

19. There was indeed suspense in 2006.

Tester, Webb, and McCaskill. Those races were well within the margin of error and could have gone either way. I know I was THRILLED that they all went our way, but it was a nail biter until the very end.

This race, as it stands right now, is only "suspenseful" because the MSM won't report the reality of it. I think that after it's over, they will all be saying what you've said in your original post.