Oh Yeah, LOL !!! - One Research Group Finds The REVERSE Bradley Effect !!!

[WillyT]

<snip>

Researchers Find Reverse Bradley Effect in Primaries

The Bradley effect--a black politician doing well in the polls but badly in the actual election--has been much discussed but there is little data on how it would work this year. Now a team of researchers from the University of Washington has analyzed the data from the 32 Democratic primaries this year and come to a surprising conclusion. The effect existed in California, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, but a reverse effect existed in 12 other states, largely in the Southeast. Obama did better in the elections there than in the polls leading up to them. Researchers speculate that some people may tend to give pollsters the "socially correct" answer and in the Southeast, supporting the white person is socially correct. But this is just one study. Don't take it too seriously.

<snip>

Link: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The actual report: http://www.physorg.com/news142862643.html

If true, I LOVE this !!!

Trying to sound politically correct in front of your RW neighbors... "Oh yeah, I'm voting McCain\Palin." Then going into the booth and secretly pulling the lever for Obama.

This goes way past ironic, almost to the sublime, LOL!!!

:rofl:

[rucky]

1. So they cancel each other out.

and we can stop talking about this.


after everyone votes in my poll.

[Danmel]

2. I think there is some validity to this

They will say in public that they support McCain because there is social pressure to support the Republican- either religiously or racially, but when they get into the booth, they think about their interests financially and may very well vote for Obama.

[WillyT]

3. And I Find That Hilarious... Karama's A Beyatch, Ain't It ???

:bounce:

:hi:

[NYC_SKP]

4. I've been talking about a "Obama Effect" for a while now, just like that.

Even posted an article on Wikipedia, but it was shot down.....needs more research.

Thanks for the link.

:patriot:

[Schulzz]

This is true, in most states polls underestimated Obama.

Ohio was one of the exceptions. And I don't believe that California had anything to do with a Bradley affect, Obama lost because of early voting. Nobody gave him a chance at the beginning.

[cascadiance]

11. And there were many of us that voted for Edwards here too then...

I'd have voted for Obama now instead.

[BlooInBloo]

5. "I'm too much of a coward to admit that I'm voting for Obama!"

We'll take the votes, I suppose, but it doesn't say great things about the person's character.

(Sure there might be a few wives scared of getting beaten by their asshole husband, and that's understandable. The idea that *that* is the typical reason, however, is just silly.)

[drm604]

6. I've suspected that this might be going on in certain parts of the country.

Of course one study doesn't prove it, but it makes sense to me.

[WillyT]

7. It's Funny...

I go into my local watering hole to watch a little football yesterday wearing one of these...



And although a few people look and say," cool shirt", right away and out loud, there were even more that came up to me as they were leaving saying "I like your shirt" in hushed tones. Even a couple of winks.

And this is in Northern California. (Sacramento)

Plenty of Obama signs around the neighborhoods, almost no McCain signs, yet everybody is sort of low keying it.

I'm starting to believe that people don't want to get into any confrontations over the election, they just want to vote for change, and for this campaign to be OVER.

:shrug:

[1776Forever]

8. I am with you on that - I do like your shirt too and I am shouting it - ha!

Just voted for Obama/Biden today in Ohio and I feel good!

[cascadiance]

12. And perhaps a state north of California, change the blue color to green...

... and that t-shirt might have a good "local" meaning too! :) Though perhaps Beaver fans might get tuned out...

[grantcart]

15. yes but how many phone numbers did you get?

[WillyT]

17. Um... Those Would Be Internal Numbers...

Not allowed to share, sorry.

:evilgrin:

:hi:

[nichomachus]

9. Well, there was a thread here in the last couple of days

about women who were being abused by their husbands for saying they would vote for Obama. I could see these women saying one thing in public and then doing the opposite.

There was also one person here who posted about doing phone-banking and having women whisper that they were for Obama, but couldn't say that in front of their husbands.

There may be more of this than we imagine. I know my sister -- even if she were inclined to vote for Obama (which she probably wouldn't be) -- couldn't say so in front of my knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing brother-in-law -- just to keep peace in the family.

[WillyT]

10. Yep... Civil War (The Ulimate Oxymoron) Within Families...

Very sad...

:shrug:

[MgtPA]

13. I've been saying just that for months now (I have Ohio relatives...)

[WillyT]

14. Welcome To DU MgtPA !!!

:bounce::hi::bounce:

Glad ta have ya aboard!

:woohoo:

[MgtPA]

21. Thanks, WillyT! I love it here.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

16. confirms 538's findings

[grantcart]

18. Then there is the "stay at home effect"

I suspect that people who are motivated to answer for McCain and against Obama because of his race and not because of any feelings for McCain are highly likely to simply stay home on election day. Its one thing to give an answer when somebody calls you on the phone butI think alot of bigots simply won't be that motivated to go to the polls on election day.

[WillyT]

19. True... Especially If It Looks Like A Landslide For Obama...

If the polls show a significant whoopin, many McCain folk might just pass on voting Nov. 4th.

DON'T ANY OF US COUNT ON THAT, but... I could see it happening to some degree.

:shrug:

[MadrasT]

20. Great news. I've been wondering about that...

How many people are there in ultra-red areas who don't dare say "out loud" that they will vote for Obama... but haven't swallowed the neocon Kool-Aid and will ultimately pull the Obama lever on November 4? They have to be out there.

[WillyT]

22. Yes They Do !!!

And I'm hoping there's a lot of them!

:D

:hi:

[No Elephants]

23. These people seem desperate for new ways to rain on Obama's parade.

[WillyT]

24. You Must Be Reading A Different Article Than I Did

:shrug: