Told you So: North Dakota poll: Obama 45, McCain 43

[MadBadger]

I called this a couple weeks ago, saying we may have pulled out of North Dakota a little too early looking back, because with this Obama surge, we probably were closing in. I was called a concern troll. Well, it looks like we are on top there after all.

http://www.in-forum.com/articles/index.cfm?id=218215§ion=news

[Thrill]

1. Ed Schultz has been saying it all yr. That Obama can win there

He lives there

[Curtland1015]

2. Whatever concern troll.

:P

[Schulzz]

3. I am concerned.

That we need more ND polls. WV and MT, too.

[Occam Bandage]

4. 538's model finds it to be an outlier. I have to agree; it's totally inconsistent

with everything else we've seen out of ND. Still, who knows?

[MadBadger]

6. its not an outlier at all.

In July and late August (pre convention), polls showed him down 1, 3, and 3. Then he had a bad few weeks of polling when his numbers plummeted after the conventions. BUt not, with his numbers surging, hes back to making it close and is even on top. Why would that be an outlier? Me thinks Nate Silver is wrong.

[BlooInBloo]

7. Do you know what an outlier *is*?

:rofl:

[MadBadger]

8. You know anytime I disagree with 538, you become an ass hole, plain and simple

[BlooInBloo]

9. (shrug) I was just wondering if you knew what an outlier was. There's reason to believe...

that you don't.

[MadBadger]

10. The one that doesnt fit

Kind of like ARG saying Hillary will win Iowa by 9 while the rest of the polls show Obama up 2-8 points. So what makes this poll an outlier? We dont have enough polls to prove that this one would be. Instead, the number fits with the trends.

[BlooInBloo]

11. If you don't have enough polls to prove that it IS an outlier...

Then you don't have enough polls to prove that it is NOT one either.

Contra your initial claim that "it is not an outlier at all".

[MadBadger]

12. Then as you say, thats also not a good enough reason to claim it IS an outlier

But it you look at the polling trend, why would this one seem like an outlier, looking at what I said before?

[BlooInBloo]

14. "It's not an outlier at all".

[liberalmuse]

5. I remember that.

Boy, did you get jumped on! Nice call! :toast:

[WI_DEM]

13. Good news! I hope it lasts. I'd like to see another poll back it up.