538: McCain preparing "Reboot"?

[Coexist]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/is-drudge-priming-mccain-reboot.html

Something is a little bit funny when Matt Drudge is treating 1-2 point gains for McCain in the Rasmussen and Zogby tracking polls as "BREAKING" news. Naturally, Drudge ignores other results like the just-released ABC/WaPo poll that show Obama continuing to gain ground.

...

So here's what I think is going on.



The McCain campaign is planning on a major "reboot" of its campaign in some point in advance of Wednesday night's debate. This will take on something of the form that Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone. In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy.

What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this.

The only way for McCain to do that is for him to convince the media that he already had the momentum. The campaign will probably try and claim the moral highground, perhaps contrasting McCain's repudiation of the woman who called Obama an "Arab" on Friday against John Lewis's comments from Saturday. They will suggest that McCain found his voice, and made the "maverick" move of telling off the Beltway Republicans who were urging him to go for blood. They will suggest that the reboot is a continuation of this strategy, and that -- as the Zogby poll so obviously attests to! -- voters were already responding favorably to McCain's new tone.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. I would welcome for McCain to go positive, whether it helped him or not.

It would be less evil than what he's been up to.

[Schulzz]

2. I hope he does - but what do they have to talk about when staying positive?

I believe that his campaign will still be negative, but McCain will come out and say he wants a positive campaign. It will be a desperate move to appear as a maverick who even takes on his own campaign...

[leftist.]

5. LOL Shades of Colbert

John McCain is so much of a maverick that he's not even afraid to stand up to John McCain.

[Coexist]

9. he is awesome beyond belief!

[AndyA]

3. A major shift in the McSame campaign now will be an admission of guilt

It will indicate they have been running a negative campaign, and the perception among voters will be that McSame was in the wrong by doing so. Three weeks before the election is not the time to do an abrupt about-face, but perhaps that's all they have left.

Negative isn't helping.

The Palin self-investigation and press release of her innocence hasn't helped, either. (How silly, I'll investigate myself and say I'm innocent and people will believe me... :eyes: )

Another change of direction will just prove what most fear: McSame is erratic, and people don't want that in a President. But what else can they do? Going negative didn't work, but I can't think of much positive they can talk about, unless they just ignore the last 8 years of the GOP/Bush Administration, in which McCain voted with Bush most of the time. :shrug:

[leftist.]

4. This was a great catch by Nate.

Today's Rasmussen and Gallup polls will let us know if they can actually use this or not.

[radfringe]

6. lurching again?

I'm getting motion sickness from just reading about all his changes in direction.

as far as a "more positive" campaign :rofl: - all weekend, every freaking mccain commercial was a negative mudslinging, slimy ad

[radfringe]

7. meanwhile... which is it going to be?

[Orsino]

8. I think the whole tone of the campaign would change...

...if Obama would agree to a do-over. :rofl: