Virginia is NO LONGER a "Swing state"

[underpants]

According to Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

[ShortnFiery]

1. That's great news. Bill Clinton just stated he's coming here to campaign for Obama.

Let's go see Bill and then GET OUT THE VOTE on November 4th?!? :woohoo:

[underpants]

2. Tonight at VCU (middle of Richmond)

9:30 tonight

Palin will be here tomorrow. They moved that from the Ashe Center to the NASCAR racetrack due to "overwhelming interest". You never over book for the crowd you always make sure there are more people than seats... :eyes: but then who am I to tell them how to run a campaign???

[ShortnFiery]

4. Thanks for the scoop. :-) eom

[Arugula Latte]

3. Look at the little photos they use for each candidate.

Obama: smiling, looking confidently into the future

McCain: looking like he's on the toilet wishing he'd eaten more fiber the day before.

[Vektor]

6. Hahahaha!! I was just about to comment on that!

McCain looks miserable.

[Cha]

32. Perfect description of mccain's

wish for the day, Oregonian.

:hi:

[Laelth]

53. RCP is a right-leaning site.

I don't think they are responsible for the pictures, only the data. Does anyone know for certain? I searched their site and couldn't find that graphic.

-Laelth

[progressivebydesign]

5. I'd be willing to publicly state that Tennessee could be a swing state.

I look at those RED states and believe otherwise... watch Texas and Tenn.

[GreenPartyVoter]

7. I could see TN, but TX? :^)

[underpants]

10. M 57- O 38 according to this

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html

[yellowdogintexas]

11. hard to say, but our new voter registration has been huge, and mosty in the

under 30 crowd, who aren't getting polled.
A political Science professor at TCU told me today there could be some major surprises. Just hope it is enough here to get Rick NOriega in over Cornyn and produce a Democratic majority in the Legislature.

[underpants]

16. Dole is finished in NC

I was reading that earlier and the source was Politico so you know it has to be even worse than just saying that.

[Virginia Dare]

35. They killed her when they ran an ad that said..

Obama had spent more days in N.C. than Libby had...:kick:

[underpants]

47. Ooooh that's good

:bounce:

[last_texas_dem]

42. Hey, to our credit, TX has actually been a bit closer than TN

and in the long run, if mostly due to demographics, I think TX is closer to becoming a swing state than TN. TN is one of the few states that seems to actually be turning redder.

Fivethirtyeight.com's polling average has McSame up by 13.6 here while he's leading by 17.9 in TN. (Scroll down the right side of the page to see the polling results and averages.)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[progressivebydesign]

57. ya, weird I know... but I have a feeling that they don't know how to poll Texas this time.

and they're underestimating his support there because of the newly registered, and those who will confirm their support ONLY in a private booth. I'd love to be right, obviously!

[underpants]

8. All the data tells us

that it is looking more and more like that Tuesday night in November will be earth shattering

(crosses fingers knocks on wood) OUCH that hurt!

[Quixote1818]

9. If a few more polls come out showing West Virginia around 10 points up for Obama

It will no longer be a swing state either.

[occe]

12. I definitely think Obama can snag VA on Nov. 4

:)

[underpants]

14. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[occe]

26. Thanks!

:P :bounce: :patriot:

[Borgnine]

13. Thank you!

As a VA resident, I get tired of people still referring to us as a swing state, or, worse, a Republican stronghold. Not anymore and never again.

[underpants]

15. This is Virginia

You may have heard THE Virginian joke

How many Virginians does it take to screw in a lightbulb?

Three

One to screw it in

and two to Remembah how good the ooold one was

I agree. The press,especially in Richmond, is to lazy to reconsider the narrative. The asshat writers for the Times-Dispatch lead with the Republican angle and consider IT the standard to be disproved no matter who is the Governor or majority in either house.

NoVa is completely ignored here as are Tidewater (they return the favor) and Roanoke-and-beyond. It is like we have 5 different states here-with the Valley and the "Mountain empire" (Bristol) included.

[Gin]

24. McCain and Palin wil be in Va Beach tomorrow,,,,,,

g

[underpants]

27. Clinton is at VCU (outside) in 2 hours-Palin is at the Richmond Raceway tomorrow

she was supposed to be in the Ashe Center but they moved it due to "incredible interest". From what I know you are supposed to leave people outside the door not move it to a site that you can't possibly fill but then I guess their "perception over reality" people will take care of that.

[Virginia Dare]

36. Last I saw Obama was up by 20+ points in NOVA..

and they're still pretending that McCain has a chance.

[dgibby]

44. You should read the Roanoke Times!

They burned that idiot Goode today! My sister, who lives in Clifton Forge, called me long distance and read the whole article. Considering she's as tight as the paper on the walls, you know she had to be happy about that! I am soooooo proud of my native state. Just wish I was there.

[underpants]

48. The Roanoke Times has a great op/ed page

My wife is from there. It is refreshing to read some sanity compared to the Times-Disgrace.
Lots of New Deal Dems and railroaders out there. The surrounding counties around Roanoke though have bought the lie unfortunately-Same case in Lynchburg.

[dgibby]

50. I believe you are describing my family!

The dems/railroaders, that is! We've been doing missionary work for the dems for years!

[Borgnine]

55. I live in the Valley...

...and even the Republican base here is eroding. For the first time in years, the Democrats are actually organized and fired up in this area of the state.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. I think Obama has VA nearly locked up.

Along with Colorado, as well.

Add in Iowa and New Mexico and the only way he loses is if McCain somehow picks off Wisconsin & Minnesota.

If he loses either, he loses the election.

[underpants]

19. Not just because I live in Va but McCain can't lose either Va or Colorado

he can have Ohio and Florida if either of those fall

Minn ain't happening and the title "Senator Franken" is going to be one that old time SNL fans will think IS a Franken and Davis routine for about 6 months

Wisconsin maybe but Gayle Quinnell may (MAY) have very well scared off anyone near the middle the other day with her "he's an arab" remark. McCain just about pulled a muscle getting the mic out of her hand
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7412321&mesg_id=7412321

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I think Obama wins Wisconsin by 7+.

Minnesota, too.

Just saying, if McCain has any hope of winning the election without Colorado & VA, he'll need to win BOTH those states.

[gravity]

18. I still have a hard time believing it

I mean, I thought Obama had a chance, but I never thought he would win by more than a percentage

[underpants]

20. We'll see

there are those mystery Republican votes out there in the Shenandoah Valley :eyes: to consider

[The River]

33. I Think The Valley

is still stuck in the 1950's.

[terrya]

22. It still amazes me that Missouri and Indiana are swing states,

Well, perhaps it shouldn't. But these have been Red states for several election cycles.

[underpants]

23. Dems picked up 3 House seats in Indiana in 2006

and 3 in Kentucky.

The people are pissed at DC.

[crossroads]

25. Whoo Hooo nt

[mwooldri]

28. If all them Blue States are truly Blue...

then Obama has this won hook line and sinker. Even if McCrypt snags all the tossup states.

If we snag all the tossup states, then I have a question.

How do you spell "Landslide"?

Mark.

[MattNC]

29. It's not a lock

We haven't won there since the '60s. I'm waiting until I see it called on election night before I call it a lock. :)

[underpants]

46. No it isn't

Just throwing out some hope.

The "kids" running the operations (or staffing them) are incredibly organized. Lots of canvassing volunteers too.

[Leopolds Ghost]

30. Beginning to feel sorry for McCain n/t

[FVZA_Colonel]

31. Why are MN, MI and WI still listed as swing?

Obama's had a lock on MI for a while, and the recent polling in MN and WI shows Obama continuing to solidify there. We could probably use more campaign stops and ads, but I know I've seen a poll showing a huge lead for MN, at least.

[Odin2005]

34. It's the BS MSM "horse-race" narrative. n/t

[Omnibus]

37. And this is from the biased RCP...

...which stands for "Republicans Can't Poll".

They cherry-pick the polls for those that favor Republicans. It's not egregious, but it does skew them toward McCain.

Nate has something on it. fivethirtyeight on RCP

[johnnyrocket]

38. Go virginny!! WOOOHOOO!! I knew they'd pull it together a come to their senses.

[Shine]

39. Awesome!

:thumbsup:

My dad lives there and he's voting Obama.

[Captain Hilts]

40. Gilmore was the last straw and it's been turning blue ever since. nt

[Motown_Johnny]

41. and McCain pulled his ads off of northern Virginia's media market.. Holy Crap.. Landslide Time

[Proud Liberal Dem]

43. Wow!

So, according to this projection, even if McCain "runs the table (which I'm sure he won't)" on the swing states and Obama keeps all the states in his column, Obama STILL wins?

[Doremus]

45. If Obama gets all the Kerry states plus Iowa plus any 2 of the swing states, it's all over.

McSame has to carry ALL of them.

[underpants]

49. Right. McCain HAS to win Va and Colorado

has to.

[NikolaC]

51. Gotta Love It!

I have been seeing more and more Obama bumper stickers and yard signs. There are still a bunch of McCain/Palin supporters in the area of VA where I live, but it's looking like Obama has picked up a lot of support here. It's encouraging.

[phylny]

52. Same here.

I live in a very red area of Virginia, and work in Lynchburg, home of Liberty U. I am amazed at the number of Obama yard signs and bumper stickers I see. Sure, there are McCain and Goode signs, but many more Obama signs. Importantly, there many older, WHITE drivers with Obama bumper stickers and many women. Many farms. It's rather cool.

[underpants]

54. Canvassing in Richmond this past weekend

we knocked on the door of a woman (according to the info sheet) was in her late 80's

A guy in his late 30's I'd say answered the door and said that she was napping.

He said that his father was not with our guy (we had identified ourselves as being from the Obama-Warner campaign) but with a smile added "But I am from Northern Virginia". I took from that that he meant that everyone from NoVa is with us.

:-)

[davidpdx]

56. Good news, but the polls still could go back and forth a bit

Remember the only one that matters is the one on election day.