Gallup narrows slightly: Obama 50, McCain 43

[mvd]

No big deal IMO; still seems to be in line with most polls, and I wouldn't be surprised if the race narrows a little as we get to the finish line.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111064/Gallup-Daily-ObamaMcCain-Gap-Narrows.aspx

[RBInMaine]

1. THEY NEED TO HIT BACK HARDER ON THE CHARACTER ATTACKS !!

[Hope And Change]

Relax.

[dennis4868]

20. it would be sad...

if McShit got closer in the polls because of his below the belt attacks...Obama certainly has alot of trash he can dump on McCain...McCain aint no saint that he should get away with trashing Obama day after day.

[SuperTrouper]

2. I expect Gallup to be Obama51% McSame 47% by election day

[jefferson_dem]

16. Do folks realize what sort of electoral landslide we will see on Election Day

if Obama wins the pop vote by four % points?

[yourguide]

3. I think they are intentionally narrowing it

so when the convert to likely voters instead of just registered voters it remains more inline.

[jezebel]

12. they actually today also started doing likely voter models. In 1 obama is up 4 in the other Obama is

up 6

[mvd]

23. The second is obviously closer, but knowing them..

they will probably play up the first.

[nyhuskyfan]

4. I'd rather the trend not get closer at the moment...

The last thing we need is anyone getting evidence that ludicrous smears are effective in driving the polls.

[Madam Mossfern]

10. Don't Panic!

...as long as you remembered your towel.

[Hope And Change]

11. Delete.

[darius15]

5. Gallup is now in line with other pollsters showing a 6-8 point lead. No need to worry.

[Hope And Change]

15. Agreed.

[HughMoran]

6. Yep, the gap between different polls is centering on 6-7%

Which is fine IMO. If Obama went itno election day with a 6% poll lead, it would end up as a landslide and closer to a 9% win as people on McCains side give up and don't bother to vote.

[gateley]

7. I'm pleased that we haven't dropped below 50. And I agree, it will probably

narrow again before it widens. I'm not getting as flipped out about the polls as I used to -- probably because in virtually every one, we're leading.

[jenmito]

17. According to their 2nd "likely voters" polling, he's leading 51%-45%.

That's good. He's over 50%.

[jefferson_dem]

18. And that model factors in "intention" as well as past voting behavior...

which is more reasonable given the huge numbers of first-time voters Obama is reeling in.

[jenmito]

21. Exactly. And the fact that Obama is over 50% in THAT model should

comfort us. All the polls which don't add up to 100% WILL close up, but as long as Obama's over 50%, he's gonna win.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. MOE fluctuations.. the 11 point lead was to high... 7-8 seems to be the average lead right now

[jenmito]

9. Did you see their new polling models?:

"Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis through the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between through the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain."

[Zynx]

14. Those likely voter models are kind of garbage. That second one is fine.

That first one is nonsense. It would never take into account new voters.

[jenmito]

19. I agree. The second one is more in line with who will vote and favors Obama 51%-45%.

I'll take it.

[Captiosus]

13. Just keep in mind:

Both MSNBC and CNN have been covering their asses the last two days bringing up race and the Bradley Effect and pundits on both stations have said "race may costs Obama 6 percentage points on election day".

So if the race gets within 6 points, it gives the repukes the green light on stealing the election because the media has already put the message out in public.

[optimisticin08]

22. this is why i dont believe the daily kos poll

all other polls are getting closer.

[mvd]

24. No, Zogby has widened

Hotline also has recently. Gallup is just getting closer to the other polls. If it gets closer, which I don't expect right now, it's pretty clear that Obama should step up the defense while playing a little offense at the same time.

[optimisticin08]

25. but mccain had a horrible week last week

and the polls are getting closer. gallup went from 11 to 7 in a week. very disturbing.

[mvd]

26. Average of all polls has gone up in the last couple days

And the Gallup thing is not disturbing yet; it has had a lot of fluctuation.

[dennis4868]

27. now if I made a post like yours...

i would be attacked for about 45 minutes straight so I will keep quiet...

:-)

[Drunken Irishman]

30. As you should be.

ONE fucking poll has McCain cutting a large 11 point lead down to a large 7 point lead and people take this as proof of every poll showing a tightening race?

You've got to fucking be kidding me.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Wow, please change your fucking name.

You make me want to slam my head through a window.

There is not one poll that shows it getting "closer". Gallup is just aligning with the rest of the polls.

Rasmussen has Obama about where he's been.
Research 2000, the same.
Zogby, the same.

Yeesh.

[ShadowLiberal]

28. That narrowed lead worried me at first, till I checked other polls

It seems that Rasmussen is still pretty consistent, with Obama at 51%, and McCain at 45%. For the last like week their polling has had Obama between 50% and 52%, and McCain between 44% and 45%.

[kennetha]

31. If McCain gets to within 4-5 points by Wednesday's debate

He could succeed in turning this back into a horserace.

Let's face it, McCain endured about as bad a 3 week period as a candidate ever has. That he's still standing suggest to me that this is more of a race than we might want. He's already absorbed the worst shock to his campaign that he's going to absorb.

I hope that Obama is more aggressive and assertive in the final debate. This is no time for prevent defense and conservative play it safe don't blow the lead offense. IMHAO (in my humble amateur's opinion.)

[alcibiades_mystery]

32. As usual

You don't know jack shit.

[kennetha]

33. Wow!

Do you talk to your mother with that mouth?

[Jennicut]

34. McSame not gaining, ithought Gallup was a bit high actually

Obama looks to have a consistent 6 to 7% lead on all the other polls. I doubt its an 11 point lead. Seems to be about where it should be.