Which of hte "light blue" states could McCain pull out?

[MindMatter]

He seems to think he has a chance in Iowa. There isn't a lot of recent polling, but most of the sites have this as solid for Obama. That would seem to be a waste of time for McCain.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/john-mccain-sti.html

Pennsylvania seems to be a lost cause, but McCain's schedule takes him to Scranton this week. I suppose it is a case where there is no realistic chance at an electoral victory without PA, so I can definitely see that stop more than wasting time in Iowa.
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Calendar/

The rest of his schedule includes Ohio, Virginia, and NC. Those three are obvious. He MUST win all three of those, and he can't afford to lose Florida either.

What's his most realistic way to 270 votes? RealClearPolitics has him at 153 today. If you give McCain FL, OH, IN, MO, WV, and NC, that still gives him only 247 Throw in CO and NV and he still has only 261. And that is with no toss-up states left. So he really has to win all of them and also Wisconsin or Virginia. The odds against all of that (if the election were today) are astronomical.

I guess he's thinking that if he can get back in the running in PA and VA, that adds 34 electors, which then enables some more realistic combinations.

[KingFlorez]

1. None of them

[Zynx]

2. If he is losing red states, he isn't picking up blue states.

[occe]

3. Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia

[Sodan]

6. Iowa lightblue??

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html

[MindMatter]

12. Not much polling there.

For McCain to be spending time in Iowa, he must not believe those numbers. Maybe his campaign has better numbers for Iowa. Or maybe they have worse numbers everywhere else.

[Gore1FL]

16. What has been there shows a significant Obama lead

The only time McCain had a chance was after his convention bounce. as of last week, Obama held more than a 10 pt lead, even giving McCain the benefit of MOE.

[WinkyDink]

8. Bwahahahahaha! Good luck with that!

[Botany]

4. none of them

It is now looking like Georgia, Monatana, West Viginia, and Indiana are all
trending to Obama.

[WinkyDink]

5. ZEE-ro. Please! He is OVAH!

[WinkyDink]

7. Newsflash: PA. was NEVER in doubt. All smoke-and-funhouse "R" mirrors ever to opine otherwise.

[BumRushDaShow]

9. He is an idiot still trying to hang his hat here in PA

I could see if PA had voted repuke in 2004 and it was part of the previous repuke suite of states and strategy. But PA has NOT voted for a repuke President since 1988 with Poppy and even that was a squeaker. Since then, PA has voted for the Democratic candidate in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004.

[MindMatter]

13. I don't think so

I don't see how he has any viable combination without PA. It really raises the wisdom of bailing on Michigan. It looks like Michigan would have been a lot more winnable than Pennsylvania.

I wonder if there is some sort of Jedi game in Michigan, hoping that if he makes Michigan look non-competitive, the Dems will stay home.

[saltpoint]

10. Iowa DUers are the reliable sources for this, but from a distance,

I don't think anti-ethanol McCain has a prayer in that state.

I think it goes blue.

[patrick t. cakes]

17. without a doubt

we go blue

[Higher Standard]

11. None

I think the last several weeks of the election, he's increasingly going to have to spend his time holding on to the light red states because Obama is having great success at shifting the polls in some of those states his way. If he spends too much time trying to poach the blue states, he's going to wind up losing some of those red ones.

[MindMatter]

14. That's a loss either way

There is no point in defending Georgia if you don't also pick up the other states needed to get 270. So I can't see him playing much defense down the stretch. I'm guessing his team will be trying as hard as possible to add strength in the light blue states. Right now, the narrative is shaping up that there is no path to victory. If that becomes the dominant story, that will depress his support in the red states. Conversely, if he can turn the narrative around -- as in "McCain comes on strong down the stretch in OH, FL, and PR", that will solidify the red states for him.

It is an uphill battle, but far from over. And he does have one good thing happening. It looks like this may be the first weekend in awhile where there wasn't some really huge bank bailout.

[Gore1FL]

15. It depends on what you count as "Light Blue"

If "light Blue" is based on 2000 and 2004, blue states, the only one he has the remotest chance of is NH, and that is unlikely at best (best for him).

IF light Blue = Red states that have turned Blue, such as, VA, WV, NC, MO, CO, NV, OH or FL, I would say he has a potential to pull out WV, NC, MO, OH, and FL, but not all of them, and even if he did that wouldn't be enough as VA and CO would give him 22 EVs that neither Gore or Kerry had, and IA and NM would give him 12 that Kerry didn't
have.

34 Electoral votes + Kerry's 252 = 286. take away NH and CO, and he still wins with 273. Take away VA, and he wins with 273.

The map is changing, but it isn't from blue to red. The question now, is how many flip from red to blue. The second question are there at least 18 EV's there (assuming he holds NH, which he probably will).

VA = 13
WV = 5
NC = 15
MO = 11
CO = 9
NV = 5
OH = 21
FL = 27
NM = 5
IA = 7
IN = 11

(And thogh I don;t think either of these two are likely)

GA = 15
MT = 3

McCain doesn't have the money (or for that matter, the issues) to defend 13 states.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. The states that McCoward should leave are...

Virginia
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota

Get the hell out, beeotch!!

[progressiveforever]

19. McCain cannot win with this simple scenario:

Obama holds on to all Kerry states plus New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa and McCain caanot win.

If we drop New Hampshire to McCain (which we won't) Nevada would compensate for it.

If we pick up ANY of the following, then it is over for McCain:

Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina

[Blasphemer]

20. He's pretty well screwed... I could see him taking OH but that's about it... nt

[book_worm]

21. McNuts isn't going to carry any state which went to Kerry in '04

[loyalkydem]

22. None

I'm tired of hearing his name, NEXT