How McCain Wins.... Without Florida.

[FlyingSquirrel]

Things are looking good for us. Which makes me nervous. So I put on my McCain campaign pollster hat and went to see just what they might be thinking about at this point, mathematically.

I don't think McCain's gonna give up Florida without a fight. But quite clearly the tables have been turning dramatically there; and McCain needs a cohesive campaign strategy that he can use in many states at the same time. That strategy is emerging, and it seems that he's aiming at the lowest common denominator - which doesn't leave much room for the senior citizen or Jewish vote in FL.

So they must have a backup plan in case they lose Florida. What could it be?

First off... obviously, they must keep the most of the rest of the states that Bush won in '04. Namely Montana, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.

Those states total 92 EV. Added to states which are probably safe for him (LA, AZ, AR, ND, MS, SD, GA, TX, KY, SC, AK, AL, KS, TN, NE, OK, WY, ID, UT) you get:

247 EV.

So that's Job #1, if you're gonna build a contingency plan for losing FL: Win all the remaining states back (many of which Obama's now leading in) that Bush won in 2004.

This week the polls have shifted back in McCain's direction in NV, IN and OH - although Obama still holds a small lead in NV and OH. McCain still has a lot of work to do in the coming weeks to take back (or at least get close enough to steal, in some cases) NV, NC, VA, NH, and especially OH and CO before they get away.

Assuming he could do it, where does he come up with the remaining 23 EV?

Since he's pulled out of MI (and ticked off the state GOP while doing so), there is only one possibility:

New Hampshire + Wisconsin + Minnesota. 24 EV total.

Bush won NH in 2000 and lost it by only 1.3% in 2004. He lost WI by only 0.3% in 2000 and 0.4% in 2004. MN has not gone red in a very long time - however Bush only lost the state by 2.4% in 2000 and 3.5% in 2004.

How have things gone last week in NH, WI and MN?

Not well for McCain in NH or WI, but he's still within 5-6 points in each state. McCain does seem to be closing the gap slightly in MN lately.

I don't get why he's bothering to even try in Iowa, it seems to me like Obama's locked it up. But maybe that's a secondary plan - if McCain can't get Minnesota, he could still win with NH, IA and WI.

McCain's upcoming events are in PA, IA, OH, VA and NC. I'll bet after the debate in NY on Tuesday he'll be stopping by NH, and probably WI and MN after that.

[Erin Elizabeth]

1. Ever seen this?

http://election.princeton.edu/

They use only state polls and put them together to get the big picture.

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Pretty close to Pollster's current total.

But like I said, I get worried when things are going too well. :) Of course not as worried as I'd be if it was the other way around! :D

[seafan]

7. It's looking good, folks.

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

This map provides a state-by-state overview of the current polling. States for which we are currently at least 95% confident in the outcome are considered “safe states” and are colored in the darkest color. States for which we are less confident in the outcome are more lightly colored (proportionally) based on the direction in which they are currently leaning (either towards Obama, or towards McCain). States which we currently view as tied are colored in white. Those states which are currently polling for Obama are colored in blue, and those for McCain are colored in red.

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. I'll stick with Pollster.com...

I don't think it's reasonable to call 308 EV "Safe" this early out.

pollster.com

Pollster calls it 203 Strong for Obama (which I'd interpret as probably "Safe" 3 weeks out) and 117 Leaning for Obama, 320 total with another 60 Toss-Up.

[Tallison]

43. Especially Ohio, Florida, and VA

Seems a little cocksure for me...

[quakerboy]

45. Whats interesting is to

look at the maps that they provide with a 2 point shift.

[kenny blankenship]

25. Sam Wang has the right idea - it's critical for us to focus on the close Senate races

Obama is going to win, but unless we have a strongly Democratic Senate, it will almost as though his 300+ EV victory was all for nothing. I expect the Repukes to obstruct to their full ability no matter how unpopular that is or how crazy they seem doing it: they are down to their Fundy, inbred, crazy base and will have no choice but to act accordingly to preserve their existence as a party. And if that means America burns, so be it.

Wang says:
"An example of wasted effort at this point is making an additional contribution to either Presidential campaign. I realize that for some of you, this is a difficult proposition. If you are already committed to turning out the vote for your candidate, by all means do so. But if you still have time or money to spare, think about the following argument."

"In general, any contribution you make to a strongly leading or trailing candidate makes little difference in the outcome. It’s like voting in Massachusetts or Utah: whether you do or don’t essentially makes no difference in the outcome. The same is true for campaign contributions. In the best of worlds, $100 to Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin would move the national win probability by an infinitesimal amount. Even 0.00001% would be an overstatement."

"The place to make a difference is at the margins. Take the Georgia race, in which incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss is defending his seat. In 2002, Chambliss won office by tarring Vietnam war hero and triple-amputee Max Cleland with an alleged sympathy for Osama bin Laden. Now Chambliss is fighting for his political life, and is in a dead heat with Democratic challenger Jim Martin. If you had the choice of driving voters to the polls in Georgia or in South Carolina, you’d be dead wrong to pick South Carolina. By the same token, a contribution in Georgia, but not South Carolina, might make a small difference in the outcome."

"What your contribution buys. The outcome of the 2008 campaign determines the size of the working majorities in next year’s Congress. Next year, top priorities for any President and Congress will be the war in Iraq, the financial meltdown, health care, and global warming. It will be an unenviable and enormously difficult task. If Obama wins, as I expect he will, what he accomplishes will depend critically on how many votes he has in Congress. Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, your point of leverage in this process is the Senate, where a minority of 41 can stop a bill from becoming a law."

Here's his ActBlue donation page: he identifies Merkley, Martin, and Franken as our points of maximum leverage.

[FlyingSquirrel]

31. You should post that as an OP, it's very good. n/t

[Erin Elizabeth]

37. I posted the link as its own OP.

But I didn't quote that particular part. Still:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7419065&mesg_id=7419065

[FlyingSquirrel]

41. Cool, I rec'd it (but still like the idea of focusing on close Senate races)

Although, again, I'd hate to fall into the trap of assuming we're gonna win the Presidency ala Kerry and then lose it because we got complacent and lost our focus. The presidency is the big prize and even if we get a 60-vote majority in the senate, a repug president could veto anything he wanted (or add signing statements since apparently Bush has never been called on it.)

[graywarrior]

55. Wow, that is interesting

Support the senate races before the presidential because Obama is on his way to a win and needs them.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. Meh...he can't do it.

I just don't see any of this happening, frankly...

:shrug:

[Eric J in MN]

3. Obama is fighting back in Minnesota.

After no TV ads in the Twin Cities area from after the Feb. caucus until recently, now there are lots of Obama ads.

Also, Michelle Obama is doing three events in Minnesota on Monday.

[Condem]

4. Why's he coming to Iowa, Flying?

This states done. Nothing else to do, perhaps. Maybe he can find a place to drop a hockey puck.

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. I'm scratching my head about it too. Maybe

he thinks that by putting in an appearance there he can show that he still cares for the little people, farmers etc. and it'll him up for appearances next week in neighboring states (WI, MN, MO).

:shrug:

[Condem]

15. The crazy thing is, Flying

Nothing but Obama commercials in Iowa. Beautiful.

[ShadowLiberal]

27. According to McCain people recently they're just 1% behind Obama here

Within the last week (more like 3 or 4 days actually) I saw somewhere, perhaps the politico, that a McCain staffer insisted their own internal polling shows them just 1% behind Obama in Iowa, hence why they're fighting for it still when almost everyone thinks it's lost for McCain.

I still say that they're crazy, and that their internal polling is wrong.

Perhaps the real reason why is because Iowa has a cheap media market, but still, McCain would help himself out by writing off Iowa.

[melody]

44. He also pumped cash into California ... yeah, good luck with that. lol

He's just going "all in".

[Eric J in MN]

6. My prediction for NH is that not only does Obama win,

...but so does Jeanne Shaheen.

[Arugula Latte]

9. Yeah. Good luck with that, McCain.

[WallStreetNobody]

10. What I want to see in the final weeks..

I'm also nervous about how things will play out right before Nov. 4th, I'm a risk manager by nature and there are just too many wildcards out there in terms of the sleazy tactics the GOP might/will pull. What I'd like to see during the last two weeks is just an all out blitzkrieg style of campaigning by the Obama camp. It sounds like he has a big warchest and they should just run it dry, blanket the airwaves with ads, have Obama and all the surrogates rally hard in every swing state, and so on. Really put the Clintons out there in places where they can help like Florida and Ohio. I'd also like to see Obama host some HUGE event, another major speech in front of an entire stadium full of people or even more. Do something like the speech in Germany in front of 200,000 people! Make it MASSIVE. While that may not sway many people it will energize all the supporters because ultimately making people get out and vote is the most important job.

[Eric J in MN]

18. I agree. Just because McCain calls Obama a "celebrity" doesn't mean...

...he should avoid huge crowds.

Americans like celebrities.

Do another big rally.

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. One good thing, he did buy 30 mins of airtime on two major networks

during the weekend before the election.

[Eric J in MN]

11. McCain has already made two trips to MN since the Convention here.

One with Sarah Palin, then one without her.

It's possible he wants to come back, but maybe he'll feel he's been here enough.

[progressiveforever]

13. Not over til it's over, but it would take a MAJOR game changer now

I am very cautious and very optimistic.

[DCBob]

14. McLoser winning New Hampshire + Wisconsin + Minnesota is not a "likely possibility".

It would be a miracle at this point. Obama leads big and the gap is widening in all three states.

[FlyingSquirrel]

26. Ya, not good wording. I took out "likely"

[floridablue]

16. A new all lie hate ad in Florida tonight

Obama hangs out with terrorists. Liberal Democrats caused the sub prime problem, then the Liberal Democrats wouldn't allow oversight.
I am John McCain and I approve of this message. It is not ever a 527 or the RNC.

[Eric J in MN]

23. John McCain approved. The ad is funded both by his campaign...

...and the RNC.

[FVZA_Colonel]

54. It's hard to imagine how an add that goes and attacks two seperate groups at once

can be that effective against both.

[creeksneakers2]

17. I agree with you they will have to try something to get

many states at a time. Since McCain is a reckless gambler with nothing to lose, and a complete scumbag, I expect something big and bad at the national level.

They'd still love to inflame racial tensions. Start something ambiguous and blame Obama for playing the race card, even if he isn't the one who complains.

Terror warnings might not work but they'd probably try them if nothing else. Maybe some big lies.

At the end, they'll probably try what worked with Harold Ford. Start something about Obama dating a white woman. They are that sick.

[HughMoran]

19. I'm seeing 9-10 point leads in NH & WI

I dunno - they've put dozens of posters up here in NH, but it just serves to annoy me.

[darius15]

20. McCain can't win without FL. Count on it.

[Drunken Irishman]

22. I see no evidence McCain is "closing the gap" in Minnesota.

There was one poll that had it close and every other poll has Obama with a pretty sizable lead.

The average of polls has Obama up 8 points there.

[FlyingSquirrel]

28. I'm going by this pollster graph

Still it's a sizable gap.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. But it seems rather pointless to use that as evidence of "McCain closing the gap".

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

Check that graph out, which I find far more advanced.

Obama's highest average lead was 52-42 on the 7th. Today, it's almost unchanged at 51-43. I would not call that closing the gap. It seems to be just noise. The only time McCain closed the gap in Minnesota was in late September.

[quakerboy]

48. its also interesting to note

that Intrade has it at 84 for Obama in MN. Take it for what its worth, which is mostly that it is interesting.

[DCBob]

35. MN polling has been erratic but generally the trend is up for Obama during the past couple of weeks.

Rasmussen 10/07 - 10/07 500 LV 52 45 Obama +7
ARG 10/04 - 10/07 600 LV 47 46 Obama +1
Minn. Pub. Radio 10/03 - 10/05 418 LV 54 40 Obama +14
Star Tribune 09/30 - 10/02 1084 LV 55 37 Obama +18
SurveyUSA 09/30 - 10/01 725 LV 46 47 McCain +1
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 849 LV 54 43 Obama +11
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1301 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Rasmussen 09/18 - 09/18 500 LV 52 44 Obama +8
Big10 Battleground 09/14 - 09/17 610 RV 47 45 Obama +2
Star Tribune 09/10 - 09/12 1106 LV 45 45 Tie

[FVZA_Colonel]

53. Strange that it would be so close then.

I suppose it will widen as the polls really show the previous debate, and even more when the last one comes on.

[Zynx]

24. You did far too much work for such an irrelevant analysis.

[FlyingSquirrel]

29. Not that much work, really.

I have so much stuff loaded up on my computer already it just takes a bit of shifting around to study new possibilities.

And I don't consider it pointless to try and figure out what the opposition might be thinking.

[populistdriven]

30. How McCain Loses, With Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania & North Carolina

[DCBob]

32. You should add PA to Obama. It is solid blue now.

[populistdriven]

33. woot!

[Trajan]

46. He is only showing how McCain could have those states and STILL lose ....

Obama is actually still leading in those states, but even if he lost all those states: He would still capture the 270 required electoral votes ...

This is an amazing campaign ... One for the history books ....

[Deep13]

47. OH, PA and FL are looking pretty blue right now...

...and N.Carolina is turning our way. The conventional wisdom is that whoever wins two of OH, PA and FL, wins the election.

[WinkyDink]

64. PA isn't "looking pretty blue"; it is SOLID BLUE, as it was for KERRY, GORE, and CLINTON, FGS.

[WinkyDink]

63. STOP with this NONSENSE about PENNSYLVANIA! Bizarro-World Scenario!

[BumRushDaShow]

36. The idiot keeps pumping $$$ and showing up here in PA

This is 21 electoral votes that for some reason, he thinks he has a shot to get in case the other scenarios don't pan out. :crazy: They are truly clueless and seemed to have forgotten the ousting of Rick Santorum just 2 years ago.

In any case, I think they think another possibility might include NH + PA using your scenarios. I say this based on the media reports about resources that McPalin claims to be adding to this state. Only thing is, you are missing NM in there somewhere unless you automatically totaled it under Obama (I never thought NM was that much in the bag, despite Richardson, but I'll take it).

[FlyingSquirrel]

39. Yeah, I've pretty much called NM in the bag for Obama but good point

Shouldn't take it for granted.

[sohndrsmith]

38. good analysis, thanks! But there's one thing electoral maps can't show...

... that is that McCain chances of developing any sort of convincing argument have become increasingly slim. Obviously, there are many, many people who don't care, either out of habit, skin color or some other thoughtless reason, but it seems to me that even some of these people haven't been able to ignore the obvious, as much as they want to. Maybe that's naive.

Barring Obama having a brain transplant or some other world event that could supersede the current economic crisis, what could McCain possibly do? I've even heard so-called experts discussing the notion that even a military or security event probably wouldn't turn the tide at this point, which surprised me (happily so).

But I hear you, I don't take anything for granted, but I do have great faith that Obama knows what he's doing. He has proven it time and time again.

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

40. Obama owns NH

The only reason Bush won here in 2000 is that Gore barely put up a fight. He never even came up here during the general; in the last week, once it was obvious he had a shot, he sent Clinton up here. Clinton, by the way, won here twice.
Obama will not lose NH. Not a chance.

[nichomachus]

59. I used to live in rural NH

I went back for a visit last week and drove around. I was blown away by the number of Obama signs where I fully expected to see McCain signs. It was totally unexpected.

I went to the Portsmouth Brewery for lunch one day. Portsmouth isn't rural and is very blue -- but I was thrilled that the brewery named their free WiFi network Obama08 and had a huge poster of Obama on the wall.

[melody]

42. And 53 million people might write-in Skinner's name and he'd be President

There's only one way McGoo can win this now -- by stealing it.

[Joe the Revelator]

49. Fuck the haters, I like this analysis

Good job FS.

[FlyingSquirrel]

50. Thanks, appreciate the vote of confidence..

I'm just trying to make sure we stay ahead of the McCain camp, examine what their strategy might be, and make sure we're prepared for it. No way should we assume a thing at this point, 3 weeks is an eternity in politics.

[berni_mccoy]

51. Great Analysis. We have to keep in mind what the other side could be thinking.

Thanks.

[FlyingSquirrel]

52. Thanks - I made an error in math too late to fix at the end though:

NH + IA + WI = 21 EV, two short of the additional 23 needed. He'd need another small state - the only one left that he would have the slightest shot at would be NM (5 EV)

IA + WI + NM = 22 EV, still short. So I really don't see why he's wasting any time in Iowa with the polls the way they are there.

NM probably still bears watching, he'll probably make a late push there in case NH doesn't work for him.

And it looks like they're not giving up PA just yet, understandable since the loss of FL would be such a big problem.

(10 days ago I posted about PA http://journals.democraticunderground.com/FlyingSquirrel/36">here suggesting it could become this year's Ohio.)

[saltpoint]

56. Respectfully disagree. If the Republicans do not win Florida, they

will not win the election.

[Condem]

57. Hey, crusoe.

Good Morning! What's your gut feeling on Ohio?

[saltpoint]

58. Good morning right back, Condem. Ohio goes blue this time.

Gore abandoned it in 2000 and still only lost it by 3.4% to Dubya.

Kerry/Edwards won it in 2004 and the Puke Sec. of State, Ken Blackwell, fiddled with the works and Bush/Cheney "won" it then.

So the residual support has been there all along in the districts where there's heavy Democratic registration. That registration is way up this year, likely most of it for Obama/Biden.

The economy is tanking big-time and Democrats fare better when the Republicans are seen to have neglected the working person's plight.

The Southwest corner is still an uphill climb (where Mean Jean, John Boehner, and Steve Chabot are all incumbents), but the blue tide will carry Obama to victory everywhere else.

In one of your old haunts, Kerry/Edwards carried Dayton and Montgomery County, but there was a sea of red all around them in the other counties in that area. I think this time the percentage could go higher for Obama in Dayton.

I like the feel of this one, Condem. I'm not overconfident, but the vibe is feelin' pretty good.

[WinkyDink]

60. How McCain Wins: The Laws of Physics are Overturned.

[nichomachus]

61. Always try to think like the other guy thinks -- that's how you survive

Screw the naysayers

[spanone]

62. mccain doesn't win

[starroute]

65. The real question is where McCain could steal it

We know the GOP strategy is to target important states like Ohio and Florida for the most extreme forms of election fraud. So we can expect some really nasty election-day moves in certain highly specific areas.

I'd suggest that rather than kicking numbers around for where McCain might theoretically win if he can move up slightly in the polls, we should start looking at the other end -- voting machines, voter intimidation and disenfranchisement, and states where there could be post-election claims of ballot irregularities and demands for recounts.

McCain is no Nixon -- he doesn't give a damn about the country. If his campaign thinks there's even a hair's-breath of a possibility of challenging the results after Election Day, they will -- even if that drags things on into December as the economy continues to collapse around our ears.

Figure out not where the election could be won by McCain but where it could be stolen -- and how -- and you'll know where we should be focusing our energies.

[FatDave]

66. Even if you give McCain IA, NM and NH...

...and the odds of him getting IA are infinitesimally small, and not much better for NM, but even if he were to get those, he would still have to flip some Kerry state with a long tradition of voting democrat.

Minnesota? No fucking way. I can't remember the last time MN went red. They were the only state Mondale won for fuck's sake.

Wisconsin? With Madison and Milwaukee as it's population centers? Doubtful.

Pennsylvania? He's 8 points behind on average.

If Barack wins FL, he wins the election. It's as close to a sure thing as you can get.

Obama's almost guaranteed to get the states Kerry got plus IA and NM. That's 264 votes right there. If Obama can get those, the only Hope McCain has of winning the election is to win all of FL, OH, VA, CO, and MO. All of them. If McCain loses any single one of those states (an Obama is polling ahead in most) he loses the election.

[jimlup]

67. The worst case (for us) hinges on Colorado

I have also played the "McCain wins" game. I'm convinced that he needs Colorado under any scenario. We are going to get MI and MN (I know this because I live in MI and my daughter lives in MN, the anti-McCain momentum is big in both and I'm very confident of MI and somewhat confident of MN).

Assume McCain takes all the states Bush took in 2004 except (or put another way, say we win only one of the OH, PA, FL combo): Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado - we win! If on the other hand any of these switch back to Red we lose. Obama is consistently polling ahead in New Mexico and Iowa. In Colorado, Obama is polling ahead, but it is still in the tossup area. Colorado is the key! If we hold Iowa, New Mexico and win Colorado, we win regardless of what happens in OH and FL (assuming PA).

I spend my summers in Colorado and know that there is a heavy conservative backlash in large portions of the state. There will be some dark red pockets so we will need to mobilize the ground forces in the Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs Front Range area. Obama will have significant support there and we will need to win it big.

The bottom line is that we must win one of the big three and we must win NM, IO, CO