phrigndumass

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Fri Oct-10-08 06:41 AM
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The Daily Widget, Fri 10/10 – O-380, M-158 – Ohio and Texas Weaken; West Virginia in Play?

1. ANALYSIS

Yesterday’s state polls are a good mix … a majority of them were conducted in swing states, with a couple blue states and red states thrown in. Yet the only polls that change the picture today were conducted by the American Research Group (ARG).

ARG is showing Barack Obama leading in Ohio by 3 points, narrower than most other pollsters are showing it. This was enough to move Ohio back into the Lean Obama column today (average Obama +3.4).

Texas had been polling as Weak McCain last week (Rasmussen), but ARG shows John McCain with a 19 point lead there. With the new ARG poll, Texas moves back into the Strong McCain column today (average McCain +14).

The most mind-boggling of all the polls released yesterday is ARG’s poll for West Virginia. ARG is showing Obama with an 8 point lead there (new average McCain +1.3). Recent polls had shown the race tightening in West Virginia with smaller McCain leads, but it’s hard to believe ARG’s poll result until other pollsters can confirm it. My electoral vote calculator has been seeing West Virginia as 50-50 for Obama the past several days and is including it in Obama’s electoral vote total (380), however, along with Indiana. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if West Virginia is now competitive, but I’m not sure about Obama leading there yet. In this political climate, almost anything is possible for Obama.

Popular vote tracking is currently showing Obama with a lead of 5.4 million votes nationwide (4% over McCain), while the Daily Tracking polls are showing an average 6.9% lead for Obama. Obama’s average lead in all the national polls is 5%. Due to the rapidly changing picture in the national polls, I am now posting the Poll Widget every day in the Popular Vote section (see Figure 4c below).

Finally, voter registration totals for Obama’s Seventeen swing states are up nearly 23% since 2004! That means one out of every five voters in these states will be new voters. This is unprecedented!

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Alabama

Obama 35, McCain 55 (AEA/Capital Survey, 10/6, +/- 4.1, 554 LV)
Alaska

Obama 38, McCain 55 (Moore Research, 10/5, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Florida

Obama 52, McCain 44 (Strategic Vision, 10/8, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Georgia

Obama 43, McCain 50 (Strategic Vision, 10/7, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Indiana

Obama 43, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan

Obama 56, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 10/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 47, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri

Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 10/6, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana

Obama 45, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 52, McCain 43 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey

Obama 50, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 10/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 48, McCain 43 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 598 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 49, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Ohio

Obama 48, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 10/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 54, McCain 40 (Strategic Vision, 10/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 51, McCain 38 (Morning Call, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Texas

Obama 38, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia

Obama 51, McCain 43 (Public Policy Polling, 10/7, +/- 3.2, 917 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 50, McCain 42 (American Research Group, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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The Daily Widget, Fri 10/10 – O-380, M-158 – Ohio and Texas Weaken; West Virginia in Play?

Go Georgia