This is why the daily Gallup Tracking Poll is important. And why Obama is flying high!

[aaaaaa5a]

The numbers below represent the final Gallup tracking poll Presidential numbers compared to the candidate's actual vote percentage for every Presidential election since 1960.


Despite criticism that polls don't matter, you can see that Gallup has a history of being very accurate when predicting voting outcomes.


This is why the daily Gallup tracking poll is the most important National number each day. It also further legitimizes Obama's current 11 point advantage. Looking at Gallup's past history, If Obama can hold this current lead or can go into November 4th, up 4 or 5 points, his election chances are excellent.


The first number is the final Gallup number for the election. The second number is the candidates actual vote percentage. The last number is the deviance. Again, note the reasonable accuracy of their polls. No wonder the Obama campaign is sooo confident! Also take notice of what happened between Perot and Clinton in 1992.

2004
Bush
49.0..... Gallup
51.0..... Vote %
-2.0..... difference

Kerry
49.0
48.0
+1.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


2000
Bush
48.0.... Gallup
47.9.... Vote %
+0.1.... Difference

Gore
46.0
48.4
-2.4

Nader
4.0
2.7
+1.3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1996
Clinton
52.0.... Gallup
50.1.... Vote %
+1.9.... Difference

Dole
41.0
41.4
-0.4

Perot
7.0
8.5
-1.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1992
Clinton
49.0.... Gallup
43.3.... Vote %
+5.7...... Very interesting, it looks like despite popular wisdom, Perot took more votes from Clinton than he did Bush!

Bush
37.0
37.7
-0.7

Perot
14.0
19.0
-5.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1988
Bush
56.0.... Gallup
53.0.... Vote %
+2.1.... Difference

Dukakis
44.0
46.1
-2.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1984......................... You can't get more accurate than this final Presidential poll!
Reagan
59.0.... Gallup
59.2.... vote%
-0.2.... difference

Mondale
41.0
40.8
+0.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1980
Reagan
47.0.... Gallup
50.8.... Vote %
-3.8.... Difference

Carter
44.0
41.0
+3.0

Anderson
8.0
6.6
+1.4

Other
1.0
1.6
-0.6
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1976
Carter
48.0.... Gallup
50.1.... Vote %
-2.1.... Difference

Ford
49.0
48.1
+0.9

McCarthy
2.0
0.9
+1.1

Other
1.0
0.9
+0.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1972
Nixon
62.0... Gallup
61.8.... Vote %
+0.2.... difference

McGovern
38.0
38.2
-0.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1968
Nixon
43.0.... Gallup
43.5.... Vote %
-0.5.... Difference

Humphrey
42.0
42.9
-0.9

Wallace
15.0
13.6
+1.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1964
Johnson
64.0.... Gallup
61.3.... Vote %
+2.7.... Difference

Goldwater
36.0
38.7
-2.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1960
Kennedy
51.0.... Gallup
50.1.... Vote %
+0.9.... Difference

Nixon
49.0
49.9
-0.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Since 1960, the most they were ever off was 5.7 points. (Clinton 1992) And that was a strange dynamic because there was a legitimate
3-way race.

Obama currently leads McCain, 52-41 in the Gallup daily tracking poll.

[DemzRock]

1. Perhaps their final polls were fairly good, but their interim polls have been very suspect. n/t

[Richardo]

2. But the national popular vote does not elect the president.

I find the national polls meaningless, I don't care how accurate they are. Only state-by-state polling will tell you anything about the likeely results in advance.

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Good Point!

However, good state polls usually follow good National numbers. For instance, Obama surge in the Gallup number was quickly followed over the next 2 weeks with great numbers out of PA, MI, and VA.


If Obama is at 50 or 51% he is probably right around 270 electoral votes. If Obama is at 52-53%, that means a state like NC or even FL turned blue for him.

[Cha]

4. REc'd and Kick so you numbers

people can keep track.

[Peace Patriot]

5. 2004 numbers should not be cited without an asterisk disclosing that 80%

of the votes were counted using electronic machines, run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by Bushwhack corporations, with virtually no audit/recount controls--a system that was fast-tracked across the country during the 2002 to 2004 period.

Do not validate those numbers, and treat them as acceptable!