The Bradley effect...

[LordJFT]

[Drunken Irishman]

1. My question is this: How many whites have under performed in the polls?

You know, they use examples of black candidates under performing in the polls, but how many white candidates have really under performed? I bet you can find a ton of examples of polls and exit polls showing a white candidate leading big going into an election, only to lose.

[cui bono]

2. You don't have my answer:

They need to stop bringing this up as it gives the Rethugs a reason to use after they've stolen the election.

[Danger Mouse]

3. never existed.

[rufus dog]

4. Do I think there is racism - yes

Do I think people in 2008 will not give a pollster an accurate response because of race - NO

I think it is much more plausible that a person would not give an accurate response because a spouse or parent is nearby. That would be young voters and females, so based upon demographics, it would more likely impact Obama in a negative way in polling. He should over perform on election day.

[elocs]

5. You "know" this or do you just "think" this?

Nobody would give an inaccurate response to a pollster because of race? There is no such thing as a Bradley Effect? I actually think this is a good attitude to take because as everyone knows if you deny something is a difficulty or even exists it couldn't possibly be a problem.

[rufus dog]

11. I clearly stated 'think'

In the 60's, 70's, 80's, I think it is more likely for a person to be embarrassed by their racial prejudices. Do I think it is as prevalent today, NO! If some asshole is going to listen to Limpballs, Hannity, and Dobbs because they like the racist rants, then I think they would be more than comfortable to clearly state they won't vote for Obama. Are there some old school Dems in Southern states that have an issue, a few, will it impact the election, no these states will stay red.

It doesn't mean I think racism doesn't exist, my take is those people are Republicans and/or clearly state they won't vote for Obama, because he is a Muslim, has a funny name, whatever lame ass excuse they can come up with. If they are Democrats, then good riddance, they can go hang out with what is left of the Republican party.

[elocs]

13. Since we are into "think" here and nobody can definitively "prove" anything,

I "think" that there are some voters (who knows how many or few?) who normally support Democratic candidates who will refuse to vote for Obama because of racial reasons and for that reason only. It may be overt racism or unconscious racism, but either way these people are not Republicans (by the way, not all Republicans are racist--we just like to use the broad brush there) and do not otherwise support Republican policies.

These people exist to one extent or another and pretending they do not exist does not make them go away and simply inviting them to leave our party does not help either. This sounds too much like the Republicanism: America, love it or leave it. If George Wallace could change, so can these people. I think it behooves us to try and change these people rather than to simply kick them out.

[silverojo]

6. One reason I don't like Rachel Maddow

She pulls BS stuff like this out of her butt. Bradley isn't Obama, and this isn't 1982. The economy is a helluva lot different now. This campaign is about two colors: Pink, as in pink slips, and yellow as in foreclosure notices.

As someone else on this thread said, why give the Repukes something else to hide behind, if (God forbid) they manage to steal the election?

If some non-famous person had posted this to DU, he/she would have been called a "concern troll". But just because it's Rachel Maddow, people act like there's actual logic behind it. :shrug:

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Rachel Maddow is the single most overrated person on the planet right now

She's wonderful if you like a clueless analyst who desperately scrambles for any rationale to back up her year-long position that McCain is the favorite due to Obama being damaged by the extended primary with Hillary. That's where this fits in.

Scarborough and Harwood scoffed at her with reason in the spring, when she launched the pessimistic crap, ignoring the national climate. She's not ready for this level and her TV show is remarkably boring. I don't care about ratings. It's the same logic as Fox News trumpeting their ratings. Olbermann may have been a jackass in regard to Hillary but his show has many redeeming qualities and he's an interesting host. Maddow is going to be slowly whispered as a disappointment on MSNBC. That's inevitable when a program is as tedious as hers. The blindfolded hoopla can't withstand the fundamental truth.

[Essene]

7. A legit concern in a few states. Just the opposite in most states tho...

[scheming daemons]

9. The Bradley Effect doesn't exist.... evidence:

Final Rasmussen poll in the Tennessee 2006 senate race:


Corker 53%, Ford 45%



Final vote tally:

Corker 51%, Ford 48%



The black candidate, in a southern racist state, did 5 points better in the actual election than in the last polls.


There IS NO Bradley Effect.


Rachel's is awesome.... but she's off-base on this story.

[Hutzpa]

10. THESE ARE ALL REPUBLICAN TALKING POINT n/t

[kevinds13]

12. History.

As Rachel reported tonight, Barack actually exceeded polling numbers in THE SOUTH during the primaries. It may have existed in the past, it may have effected other political races, but Obama seems to be doing great running against it.