Why it's over for McCain.

[Drunken Irishman]

Even if Obama takes a hit in the polls for his current attacks, it won't be enough to totally overhaul the electoral college. It may be enough to keep a red-leaning swing state red, but not enough to overturn the tide that's already swept this country.

I believe Obama's lead is safe in the states Kerry won in 2004 and the following:

Colorado
Iowa
New Mexico
Ohio
Virginia

Give Obama the Kerry states, plus those five and he wins 306-232.

That, in my opinion, is Obama's floor.

[Condem]

1. Drunken, Obama has a good shot at winning the Big Ten.

All that means is CERTAIN victory!!!

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I agree!

[Elidor]

6. If only he could win the SEC, too

That would be a total blowout.

[On the Road]

2. Perhaps Not Safe in Ohio or Colorado

but he should still have enough to win. There are so many permutations that give him a victory. It's really hard to figure out a realistic scenario that gives McCain the win.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. I think Colorado is nearly locked up.

Ohio is probably the weakest of those states, but I feel good about it.

[PaDem]

5. it's a seven state election.......

Nevada
Colorado
Missouri
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
North Carolina


It's over in Iowa and New Mexico. McCain has to win all seven of the above to win. It's a tie if Obama wins Nevada and loses the other six.

It should be noted that Indiana and West Virginia aren't locks for McCain yet either, but I can't fathom that they'll swing.

[Lorentz]

7. Agreed. The question isn't if Obama will win...

... rather, the question is by how much he will win.

The tin-foilers will have nothing to panic about, sadly, but I think it'll work out for them in the long run.

[wildflower]

8. Plus there's early voting

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record on this (if you've seen my other posts), but I believe that every day he's ahead in the polls is better and better news as long as there is early voting in so many states.