Kos Diary: What's really happening in GA: Can Obama and Martin really win? YES!!

[WI_DEM]

From 2004-2007, I was the "data geek" for the Democratic Party of Georgia. This year, I'm running for State House myself because I think Atlanta needs the same brand of change Barack Obama wants to bring to the White House. More about me later, though. People have been asking me both nationally and in Georgia this last week is it really possible for Jim Martin or Barack Obama to win Georgia? The answer may surprise you: Yes.

Amazingly, more African-Americans have been added to the rolls than white voters. Far more, in fact. Nearly 40% of the additions since 2004 are African-Americans, even though they only made up 27% of the rolls that year. Even more amazingly, Other voters (this includes Asians, Hispanics, Native Americans and Unknown) have seen their rolls more than double. They made about 175k of voters in 2004, now they are over 355k. 26% of new voters are in this category. White voters, who gave 77% of their votes to George Bush in 2004, account for only 34% of new voters. And there is a lot of evidence that these voters are younger and less conservative than the white voters that were already voting back then. For one thing, white voters who voted in the 2004 general election and the Presidential primary were only 29.8% likely to pick up a Democratic primary ballot. Those who didn't vote in 2004 but participated in the primary picked up a Democratic ballot 40.5% of the time!

Now I want to show you two amazing charts. On the left, what the electorate looked like in 2004. As with other charts, red represents white voters, blue represents African-Americans, green others. On the right, what the electorate looks like so far after about 15 days of early voting.



Guys, this is real. More than 348k Georgians have gone to their county seats and voted early or submitted an absentee ballot by mail. With nearly 4 weeks to go until election day, our total turnout is already 11% what it was as of 2004. Amazingly, at this point African-Americans represent over 37% of the electorate and Other voters made up 4%. At a combined rate of 41%, they are currently outperforming their 2004 totals by 12%!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/9/43319/1832/703/624770

[csziggy]

1. Damn, that would be great! To have a blue state to my north

Though I doubt south Georgia will turn blue, I can see the area around Atlanta really making a difference for the state.

[Cattledog]

2. I live in Atlanta and

I can tell you Saxby is in BIG trouble!

[WI_DEM]

3. Good! I'll never forgive him for what he did to Max Cleland.

[mvd]

4. Great!

He's still one of the ones I most want to see lose.