Zogby poll debunked

[thesubstanceofdreams]

It seems one has to pay to get Zogby's internals, but this bit published on his website is enough to prove his methods are total crap:

"The two candidates are doing well at attracting support from their own partisans - Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support - but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%."

In his sample the number of democrats has to be almost the same as the number of republicans. Otherwise, it would be impossible for Obama to lead by 2% overall when he leads by 9% among independents, and he does as well among democrats as McPain among independents.

We all know the number of democrats has been surging and they will outnumber republicans by AT LEAST 5%, and possibly much more. It is inconceivable that the election is as close as Zogby portrays it if Obama is leading independents so comfortably. In fact, this tidbit of Zogby poll is GREAT NEWS for Barack Obama that even his shaddy methods can't obscure.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

1. Forgot to add link:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1575

[thesubstanceofdreams]

2. Actually, it's even worse

Say Zogby's poll has 30% of independents (can't be too far from that). Since Obama leads that group by 9%, this translates to a 0.3 x 9% = 2,7% overall lead.
He's leading the poll by 1,9%. Since he does just as well among democrats as McPalin among republicans (the 1% difference is negligible, would account for less than a half of a point), this means that ZOGBY'S SAMPLE HAS MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS.

This is patently absurd on its face.

[DemsUnited]

3. Thanks for doing the math on this!! We all know that Zogby is for s**t, but having facts to support

the instinct is very valuable.

K&R

[LordJFT]

9. Does your poll take into account the fact that there are more registered dems than republicans?

[SallyMander]

4. K&R

Nicely done!

[provis99]

5. FAIL.

since you didn't take account of Others/Not Sure, what are you talking about? I think you're confused. You're only counting Democrats, Republicans, and Independents who have made up their mind, and left out the Others/not sure, which Zogby includes.

:eyes:

[thesubstanceofdreams]

10. Not really

In the independents category, Zogby gives explicit numbers (48 to 39).

For republicans and democrats, he only mentions how much support each candidate gets in his own party, which is within a point of each other. True, he doesn't give the numbers of democrats and republicans in the undecided/other category. But first of all Zogby implies that it's a wash in support from their own party, so it's highly doubtful that, say, all of democrats that are not voting for Obama are voting for McPalin, but all republicans that are not voting for McPalin are undecided. And the number of undecideds/other must be small in any case since Obama/McPalin get 84/85% of their own party vote. So the error in my argument must be very small - at most a point.

So there is no doubt that the sample Zogby is using has roughly the same number of republicans and democrats, and likely more republicans.

Which is utter nonsense.

[CreekDog]

15. Re: Fail: FAIL

According to Rasmussen, once you account for D's, R's and I's (other), you've got ~99% of voters.

[PBS Poll-435]

16. Not Sure isn't running until 2016

[MadBadger]

6. I noticed that too, but didnt know the Party ID numbers so I said nothing.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

11. He doesn't publish his Party ID

My point is they can be inferred to be nonsensical from the limited information he gives.

[LordJFT]

7. funny how the zogby polls were exceedingly favorable for Obama in the primaries

[Tutonic]

8. Zogby uses Ouija Board to develop numbers.

[Recursion]

14. No. Zogby knows Republicans say they won't vote, but end up voting

And Democrats say they'll vote but end up not doing it.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

17. In 2006 Dems had a big party ID advantage

If anything, it should be larger this year. Especially considering the huge number of new registrations, the vast majority of which are from democrats.
Rasmussen, which has a republican lean, gives dems a 6% party ID. Worst case scenario, it'll be 5%. It can't be 0% or negative as Zogby assumes.

[Fran Kubelik]

12. Wait...what?

[iwillalwayswonderwhy]

13. But their chicken sandwiches are delish!

Oh wait, that's Zaxby's.

Never mind.

Emily Lutella

[farmboxer]

18. Republican Manufactured and Programmed Voting Machines

Repubs and their pals are counting on them to steal another election. I feel that there should be enough voters to overcome it. The voting machines are a disgrace. I think Obama is doing much better than the polls show.