Statistical Dead Heat in Zogby Poll...

[golddigger]

Statistical Dead Heat In Zogby Poll

NASHVILLE, Tennessee (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has a slim 2-point lead on Republican rival John McCain in a tight White House race, according to a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama led by 47 percent to 45 percent in the national poll, within the margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

More at link. http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE4961BK20081008?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10112

[skipos]

1. Zogby and ARG have awful track records

and I'll say it no matter what their polls predict for November.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LynneSin]

3. Need to look at the electoral votes and remember these things about the polls....

They are likely voters, so they don't include all the new registrations that have been happening. Even if only a 3rd of those new registrations get out to vote we still far outnumber the republicans.

They are likely voters that answer their landline telephone. If you're like me and use cell phone only you'll never get the call for a poll.

[graywarrior]

4. I don't get this poll

Sometimes I get the new poll emailed to me and sometimes I don't so I don't trust it.

[FrenchieCat]

5. OK......

Shit polling company, that Zogby. Being used specifically to incorporate the meme that Obama's numbers are dropping. sad, really.

There's like 6 polls out, all show Obama polling much more than 2 points up, but you highlight this one? Why?

Here's the reliability ranking. Take note.

[PBS Poll-435]

12. Are "Average Pollster" and "Unknown Pollster" related to

Famous Person?

[spanone]

6. they wish

[ClusterFreak]

7. I know...I laughed when I saw that one. n/t

[Borgnine]

8. How to put this delicately...

Zogby can kiss my left-leaning nuts.

[RagAss]

9. LOL..... That's the spirit we need in here !!!!!!

[melody]

10. A grown-up polling company, Gallup, has Obama 11 points ahead

Let's see, who will I listen to?

Real polling company or Playskool polling company.

If the best the whores can do is claim a "statistical dead heat", then they're in REAL trouble.

[Fluffdaddy]

11. Are we only to believe the Polls that have Obama ahead?

27 days to victory

[golddigger]

13. I guess so, even though this poll still shows Obama ahead. Can't please everyone.

[msallied]

17. We are to believe a trend, an average. Obama is winning. Period.

[Hippo_Tron]

28. I was taught in statistics class to look for outliers

And most of the polls have Obama up between 4 and 8. There's a Gallup poll today showing Obama up 11 and IMO that's also an outlier.

[LiberalAndProud]

14. Zogby was the poll of choice on DU in 2004.

In 2004, Zogby became the pollster of choice for Democrats, as he always had some morsel of good news for them. In May, he boldly declared the race was Kerry's to lose, touting the myth that Kerry is a "good closer." Month after month, Zogby kept finding reassuring news for Kerry that somehow eluded other pollsters. He conducted dubious Internet-based polls of self-selected web users, and found all kinds of good news for Democrats: leads for Kerry in Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Nevada, and Florida outside the margin of error. "Don't expect any real bounce after the Republicans convene in New York later this month," he wrote in early August.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_/ai_n13659409

[Joe the Revelator]

15. We saw how that turned out....

[LiberalAndProud]

24. Sad but true.

The three saddest words in the English language, "I had hoped..."

[msallied]

16. I think the first sentence says it all.

He's become the "feel good" pollster for Republicans this time around. The guy has no credibility.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. Yup.

What better way to drive up site traffic and get your name out there than go against the grain?

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. And just as wrong...

:rofl:

[Occam Bandage]

19. Zogby has the worst record so far; their deviation is nearly six points. They're all over the place.

[KathieG]

21. So they polled extra republicans again eh?

[IsItJustMe]

22. Me thinks the OP is here to sow the seeds of doubt. Not only that, but me thinks that the posters

motives may be in question. But then again, it could just be me.

[DevonRex]

23. LOL. It's a lot of "just mes" instead of just one. Seems to be anyway.

But maybe it's just me. I dunno.

[Hepburn]

25. Bullshit....

...there is NO tie, statistical or otherwise!

[DevonRex]

26. Oh they just have to try to dampen spirits here. Nobody to talk

to where they hang out, ya know.

[wildflower]

27. Nate Silver appears to dismiss these polls

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7372449&mesg_id=7372449