Intrade - 76.8 for O 24.4 for M

[Whalestoe]

Obama should hit 80 at this rate.

[last1standing]

1. Just so long as he hits 100% on November 4th.

n/t

[scheming daemons]

2. Sure wish I would moved some of my 401K to Obama 3 weeks ago when he was at 47....

Could've avoided the Dow crash....

[high density]

3. O - The President

[yellowcanine]

4. I actually do not understand any of this Intrade stuff. Should I be concerned?

[GreenEyedLefty]

5. I haven't a clue myself. LOL

It seems like some kind of odds-making apparatus, but I could be wrong.

[TheWraith]

6. No, you should be happy.

It's online futures trading. Basically, they're expecting a 76% chance for Obama to win the election. And apparently Intrade's never been wrong about a US election once they went past 70.

[yellowcanine]

7. Hmm. So in other words, we assume that people who have money to throw away betting on an election

gives us a better read of public opinion than a scientific poll? I think I am happier not thinking about such a proposition.

[TheWraith]

9. Think of them as Las Vegas bookies.

They make money by being right. And in 2004, they accurately predicted the disposition of every state.

[TheCoxwain]

11. It is putting money where your mouth is .. and voting with your wallet.

you can buy 1 'stock' of Obama at the prevailing price and you will get 100 bucks if Obama wins ( and lose everything if McCain wins) .. This stock is tradeable and is priced everyday based on market demand and is considered to be a reflection of the odds for Obama

[LVZ]

8. Intrade.com - market-base accuracy ...

PollingReport.com

Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

[SeeHopeWin]

10. Praise the good Lord!

If you think it would be appropriate!