Survey USA: Start packing your bags, John--Obama's up by 15 in PA

[WI_DEM]

(yet another state the McCain campaign will have to depart)

Pennsylvania Whites Switch Horses, and Suddenly Obama is 15 Furlongs Ahead: In an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania today, 10/07/08, four weeks to the vote, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 55% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released twelve days ago, Obama is up 5 points; McCain is down 4.
Among white voters, who make-up 87% of PA's electorate, Obama had trailed by 3, now leads by 4 -- a 7-point swing to the Democrat, which, when combined with Obama's now 24:1 advantage among black voters, puts Obama in prime position to capture the 21 Keystone Electoral Votes as the two candidates head for home.

Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama.

Obama leads 2:1 in the Philadelphia area, leads by 10 points in the Scranton area, and nominally in the Pittsburgh area. McCain leads by double digits in Harrisburg and ties Obama in Johnstown.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b99d60cb-3369-47bd-887f-85bae65d2a31

[Schulzz]

1. This is the third double-digits lead for Obama in PA.

But...but...but..the Quinnipiac polls "are laughable". Who is laughing now, McCain?

[crossroads]

2. Whooo Hoooo!!!

[livetohike]

3. Who are those 16% nutballs in my state crossing over

:eyes: Yay for a 15% lead! GOBAMA!

[SuperTrouper]

4. But..but..Drudge did not post them yet

:sarcasm:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. McBitter?

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Obama will win PA by 7-10%

It was never really in question. McCain will keep ads in the Pittsburgh and Erie markets because of cross-over with Ohio and (even!) West Virginia, but you'll see the ads come down in eastern PA - and especially Philly - over the next week. He can't afford it, and they're not doing any good. He has to keep some ads on air in PA in order to avoid completely demoralizing his base elsewhere, and especially in Ohio, already hit hard by the Michigan retreat.

[Patiod]

8. Those ads are so bad they are laughable

scary, darkly shadowed Obama photos, ominous music, and then a few happy notes at the end as McCain promises "change"

[TheCoxwain]

7. I pray republicans get such a trashing this year that they will be smarting for years

I hope that this election destroys the Uber-Capitalistic Ideology once and for all.


Obama + Filibuster proof majority = Victory for American People

[Bravo Zulu]

9. You betcha!

[WI_DEM]

10. When McCain pulls out of PA maybe Palin will send off another e-mail to John

about how she and Todd would love to campaign in PA.

[Schulzz]

11. Yes, and how she liked the bar in Philly, where she watched the debate.

They are just like me.:popcorn: :rofl: :rofl:

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. McCain won't pull out of PA...he'll just stop the ads in the Philly, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and

Allentown markets.

He'll stay up in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, and Erie because they do double duty for Ohio/WV. But it will be essentially a surrender when he drops the eastern PA campaign.

[mvd]

13. Woohooo!

I might be getting my wish. :-)

[kennetha]

14. 50% democrat party ID

39% republican, 9% independent.

Is that really reliable? Does Survey USA weight party ID or just let the sample fall where it may?

[BumRushDaShow]

15. WTF? "McCain leads by double digits in Harrisburg".

Do they REALLY mean "areas surrounding Harrisburg" because the city is 55% black and 32% white and a significant number are state employees? Geez.

[RamboLiberal]

16. Take that Pat Buchanan n/t

He's winning those working class whites and Hillary voters! Hah! :rofl:

[Alter Ego]

17. Holy horsefeathers.

Minnesota and Pennsylvania are going to be more and more futile targets for McCain--I'd expect a major offensive in VA, OH, FL, CO, and NC now.

[question everything]

18. How reliable is SurvyUSA?

In Minnesota, they come with the opposite results of what the one done by the local paper:

They report Obama and McCain neck and neck, while the Star Tribune puts Obama 10 points ahead.

They say that Coleman is 10 points ahead of Al Franken, while the Star Tribune finds the exact opposite.

[Schulzz]

19. I think not more than other pollster. They have outlier polls, too.

But this is the third pollster with a double-digits lead for Obama in PA. So there is a trend.