holy crap,.... on Hardball.... talking about new voter registration numbers

[BklynChick]

Florida:
(d) 316,000
(r) 129,000

Colorado:
(d) 80,000
(r) 21,000

N. Carolina
(d) 208,000
(r) 34,000

Pennsylvania
new democrats: 474,000
Lost republicans: 38,000

Wow.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

1. Do polls reflect newly registered voters?

[BklynChick]

3. depends on poll. I think most do not include these.

[Happyhippychick]

11. No.

[Tempest]

16. No, because many newly registered voters are younger

With no landline phones.

Pollsters haven't started using cell phones because it's against the law to cold call them.

I read where 27% of Americans have no landlines and only cell phones. Most are young.

[AZ Criminal JD]

36. You are totally wrong

Your are repeating an urban legend. Pollsters do call cell phones and most polling companies have been doing so for quite awhile.

[Tempest]

43. You're the one who's wrong

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080925/ap_on_el_pr/polls_cell_phones

The finding, in a report this week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, may increase pressure on polling organizations to include people who use only cell phones in their surveys. While many major polls including The Associated Press-GfK Poll already interview cell phone users, some do not, largely because doing so is more expensive.


The pollsters who do call cell phones have just started in this election cycle.

[AZ Criminal JD]

45. I worked in campaigns in 2002, 2004, 2006

We used pollsters who called cell phones.

[Spider Jerusalem]

19. Most pollsters consider 'likely voters' those who were registered for the LAST election...

so, no.

[FatDave]

26. Spider's got it right.

If you've never voted, they do not consider you a likely voter because you've got no prior history of voting. If these people all turn out, there may be a lot of unlikely blue states.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

35. Great news for us.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

34. Some polls are of registered voters, and some are of "likely" voters

I believe "likely voter" is generally defined as someone who is registered and who voted in the previous election.

It all depends on the polls, so you have to look at each individual poll and what method they used.

[Divernan]

40. They typically sample "likely voters", defined as people who voted in the 2004 presidential election

Even polls which cast a broader net than past voters do not include cell phone numbers, and of course many people with land lines now screen their calls with answering machines and don't take pollsters' calls. Polling procedures are as out of touch with contemporary society.

[azmouse]

2. That'll make it tough for the Reps to steal this election.

GObama! :patriot:

[grantcart]

4. Virginia more than 300,000

[grantcart]

5. This is George Bush's legacy

[TooRaLoo]

9. Wish I could rec your response. nt

[Happyhippychick]

38. That is the greatest bumper sticker graphic ever.

[graywarrior]

6. Whoa!

Impressive.

[Wapsie B]

7. Now if they all vote, or are allowed to vote, depending on the area

and the gop's desire for voter purging in key areas.

[VeraAgnes]

8. OMG we here in Pa. are definitely serious!

:woohoo:

[TooRaLoo]

10. It's HUGH!

Those numbers blew me away.

[WinkyDink]

14. And STILL HB is trying to make PA seem within McC's reach. Never mind we've been Blue for AGES.

[VeraAgnes]

23. Palin is a real turn-off the vote magnet!

Even republicans are embarassed. Many will secretly vote Obama/Biden........for Biden I sense is the big attraction because Pa. likes a proven leader they know, plus, he is a local.

[Overseas]

12. Keep those numbers in mind when votes are counted too.

I love seeing those numbers and hope they are publicized widely.

We will need whatever unfettered numbers we've got regarding the popularity of the Democratic message so we can challenge any finagling the Republicans try again.

[Pattib]

13. Amazing, truly, amazing. This is Bush's true Legacy.

[PA Democrat]

15. My son told me the voter registration effort on his college campus is amazing.

They are also encouraging students from "safe" states to change their registration so they can vote here in PA.

Young people are paying attention. He has been calling and text messaging us about the debates and the issues and is MUCH more informed than I was at his age.

[rexy]

21. I go to UT in Austin, Texas.

I was AMAZED by the effort they're putting out today. I couldn't go anywhere without seeing a booth on campus. Our campus is pretty large, and my classes are generally in the same area. I was surprised by the number of booths in this area. Usually all the booths are in another area. It was completely unexpected.

I'd really like to see the number of students they've registered on campus so far this fall.

[rainbow4321]

41. Travis County (bluest area in TX) is expecting an 85% turnout this year!!

No doubt in part due to the UT Austin population!!

[rexy]

44. Wow! That's amazing.

I just read in the Daily Texan that they had 25 booths all around campus registering people to vote. Yesterday alone they registered just under 5,700 people. That was at the UT campus alone! They also had registration at all the Blockbuster and Thundercloud Subs around the city, so who knows how many from that!

[asdjrocky]

17. My daughter is registering voters for the Young Democrats club at her college.

Last week they registered more than 30 voters in one day, all Dems. And yes, I'm so darned proud of her.

[Barack_America]

18. Pennsylvania's not done yet.

I stopped by Philly's voter reg. office this afternoon to drop of a last few forms. That place was hoppin'. As was an Obama table set up just down the street at the subway entrance.

The Obama campaign will probably dump at least another 10,000 forms in Philly tonight. And God only knows how many ACORN will turn in.

[CitizenPatriot]

20. hello! this is what we've been working on in the campaign for the

last several months! no fanfare, no press, just working away at it. every time I see one of those "we're losing Georgia" (insert state of choice) posts, I want to scream. Those on the ground, volunteering, know this stuff about our own state. It isn't the world of those stale polls- if you see 50% lead right now, that is misleading. It is actually much higher. To be safe, taking election fraud into account and voter disenfranchisement, you can go with the poll numbers, knowing we have a huge power in newly registered voters.

This isn't even the half of it, peeps.

Obama rocks and he's got this thing covered. Record breaking voter registrations. History-making.

CALL the OBAMA office near you please! they need volunteers for the GOTV push!

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

22. Better than the youth counter culture revolution of the 1960s

Young people were speaking up during that time and demonstrating. But a lot of them were dropping out and not voting. I'm glad to see young people affirming the culture and trying to work within it, making their voices heard in perhaps the most meaningful way. I loved growing up in the 60s and remember the excitement of that era of protest and all the hope it generated within me. But young people today, I think, are smarter than we were and hopefully are going to make a real difference in the voting booth.

[crossroads]

24. Would be hard for them to steal this election with those numbers!

People are simply fed up with the Repukes!
CR

[rufus dog]

25. A couple of month ago Tweety had a stat that showed a net gain

of 1.5 million votes for Dems in states that party id is required. (26) Not looking at what states made up the mix would lead one to believe it is a net gain of 3 million nationwide!

What this means is that Repukes will have a HUGE problem competing in future elections.

[Arrowhead2k1]

27. If this is accurate, McCain is going to get slaughtered.

Absolutely utterly slaughtered! :toast:

[MarjorieG]

28. Mentioning the purging by equal measure?

[ronnykmarshall]

29. Nevada's numbers look great as well.

There was an article last week in the LA times about how the democrats have made huge gains.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. Philadelphia alone has registered > 200,000 new voters since April.

Heard that on the way home today. :applause: And being that today is the deadline for registering in PA, they also reported that there were 30,000 applications received TODAY in Philly alone. A woman registering people at my local supermarket this afternoon said she registered 10 so far today and had 11 yesterday.

[PeaceNikki]

31. I predict long lines, not enough ballots and MASS chaos at the polls.

[Marsala]

32. And all these new Democrats should be eager to vote

This could be the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964.

[quantass]

33. Just watched that too on Hardball over on MSN Video. Impressive, esp PA

[Blondiegrrl]

37. That settles it. Now I'm SURE North Carolina is going blue!

I'm curious ... How do these numbers compare to voter registration numbers leading up to the 2004 election? I'm assuming we're doing a lot better this time around, but I can't tell by how much.

[Arugula Latte]

39. Holy crap, Pennsylvania!

:patriot:

[catgirl]

42. Holy moly! Look at PA!!

We're going to win big this time- Obama plus the senate and house seats.