The Reverse Bradley Effect

[Plaid Adder]

You have all no doubt heard about the Bradley Effect in relation to Obama's poll numbers (the phenomenon whereby Black candidates poll higher than they perform, attributed to the fact that a significant number of people are ashamed to admit that they would not vote for a guy because he's Black, but not ashamed to actually do it).

One of my friends is married to a Republican. She says she asked him, "If you did vote for Obama in November...would you ever tell me?" Wearing his trademark enigmatic grin, he said, "Nnnno..." in a manner which to her clearly indicated that in fact that's what he plans to do: vote Democratic and just never admit it.

I would discount this as anecdotal and worthless were I not hearing similar stories from other people I know who have Republican friends and family. Palin is a polarizer, and although she has the rightwing base chortling with delight, she is really pushing away the fiscal Republicans--the ones who are more worried about what happens with the stock market than what happens after the Rapture. Cause they can tell she's a disaster, and they can also tell that McCain is old.

So I am going to hope that for everyone polled who claims they will vote Obama but really won't, there's another Republican who claims he will never vote Democratic but really will.

I can hope,

The Plaid Adder

[tekisui]

1. The Yeldarb Effect?

[Plaid Adder]

2. I guess that's what it would be. n/t

[eshfemme]

5. That's a great name! And it means less typing! Yeldarb Effect!

Thumbs up for that flash of inspiration!

[central scrutinizer]

20. That was the name of Primat and Beldar's first child

<>

[grace0418]

19. That sounds like the planet where Sarah Palin might be from.

She's certainly not human.

[Essene]

3. Ive been saying this for a month or two. Some additional points...

He's actually trailing the democrats overall in the polls, indicating something's "off."

Similarly, the energy level for actual change is off the charts.

Thirdly, i simply think the pollsters have "likely voter" models and assumptions that will again misrepresent turn-out patterns. This may go against Obama in a few states, but i generally think the polls underestimate his support in some sub-groups in real turn-out terms.

[aquamarina]

4. I think you are spot on - especially in places that are

traditionally republican strongholds - like Orange County California - which is where I'm at.

[Youphemism]

6. I think the cell phone polling factor might be more significant...

Many younger voters don't have land lines, so they are never represented in polls. Usually that's less of an issue because young folks tend not to turn out at polls. But as we saw during the primaries, they are now, and they're voting for Obama.

The media keeps bringing up the question of whether they'll actually turn out at the polls for the general election. I've tried to work out a scenario in which a young voter is engergized to register for the primary but somehow thinks the general election isn't as important. That just doesn't make sense. They may lose a few who were energized to vote for Clinton but, as we've seen, that's a dwindling number of voters, and they tend to be older.

[Lautremont]

7. I too had the idea that this might be a factor.

[NotThisTime]

23. I've thought about this... the economy the way it is... I bet this DOES happen to some degree

[Tinksrival]

8. That's exactly what I was talking about last week.

I have been doing extensive work on my Repub racist in-laws who are hurting. I think they will pull the lever for Obama but never tell a soul. They may be racist but their not completely stupid.

[Sebass1271]

9. What about to those republicans who are supporting

Obama but have never been polled? I know quite a few and have never been polled and throwing their money and full support to barack obama, and they are not blacks. THEY ARE WHITE REPUBLICANS who were in love with Reagan (gasp), BUSH Sr. (gasp) and BUSH Jr (another gasp). the first time around, now, they are just discussted by his second term, their packebooks (incredible, these ppl have lost so much money during the bush's years that all they see is, 'their money is gone" so now we must suppor tBarack)

[stillcool]

10. I think that she definitely..

has scared the shit out of a lot of voters. I think that there are a lot of people for the first time in their life, who are finding that it is socially acceptable to vote for, admire, trust and like a black man. It's as though they themselves have been the one's bound in chains.

[theothersnippywshrub]

11. Another aspect of any possible Bradley Effect this year

is how much racial attitudes have changed over the years. The change in such attitudes has two elements as it relates to the Bradley Effect.

First, many of today's bigots and racists are not intimidated by the prospect of being accused of bigotry or racism. In fact, many of them wear such an accusation as a badge of honor against the dreaded and hated "political correctness." Reich Wing hate radio gives reinforcement and validation to such attitudes.

Second, when Bradley (or Wilder) ran it was a much more revolutionary idea among many people, possibly even a majority, to elect a black Governor. Many of those people did not vote for Bradley or Wilder because of strong feelings of bigotry or racism, but rather just because of a vague and uneasy doubt (you might call it subconscious bigotry or racism). Today a majority of Americans would not think twice about electing the candidate they find most attractive regardless of race.

There may be a slight Bradley Effect this year but it will be less than when either Bradley or Wilder ran.

[FrenchieCat]

12. I think there will be a bigger "Dumbass to-have-picked-Palin Effect"

at play.

[treestar]

16. LOL, and this is very true, because while one might be a Republican

and claim to one's fellow Repubs and pollsters that one is voting for the ticket, then vote against it due to the dumbass to have picked Palin effect. I bet such sensible Republicans as there are cringe every time Phailin opens her big mouth!

[treestar]

15. Yes, and another thing

They can hide behind Palin's skirts. They are voting for a woman, after all, they can tell themselves, so they are OK with "political correctness."

[Fluffdaddy]

13. Here in Pennsylvania the Bradley Effect will be real.

Obama better be up by 10 or more points

[AllentownJake]

17. Nope

The people not voting because of race are unashamed of that and are more than willing to point that out. The PUMAS are more than happy to tell you they aren't voting for him as well.

[Fluffdaddy]

18. Jake, as God is my witness I hope you are right. But every bone in my 50 year old body

tells me The Bradley Effect is going to effect this election in a big way. The wing-nuts over at freepers are banking on it. And they know more people that think that way then we do.

[AllentownJake]

25. That's the problem

the Bradley effect was named in 1982. I'm from an all white PA Dutch family. My first cousin has a half black child. Things have changed in alot more families than in 1982 and 1986.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Let's not forget that Harold Ford performed BETTER than the polls on election night.

Most polls had him losing by a wide margin and he barely lost.

[central scrutinizer]

21. read a Princeton statistican's analysis here

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/27/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/

[FogerRox]

22. The Bardley effect involves racism. I thikn you are talking about something else

The Bradley effect gets its name from former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, a black man who lost the 1982 governor's race despite the fact that in opinion polls taken before the election he led George Deukmejian, a white man. Sometimes it is also called the Wilder effect, after Gov. Doug Wilder of Virginia, who had a comfortable lead in led by nearly 10 percentage points in his 1990 campaign, but only won by a whisker.

Until now, the empirical evidence for the Bradley effect rested on individual cases. Such cases might suffer from biased assimilation, our tendency to more readily accept examples that favor our position. A counterexample to the Bradley/Wilder effect (see pages 487 and 490 of this PDF) is the 1989 mayoral primary race in New York City between David Dinkins and incumbent Ed Koch. There, Dinkins, a black man, led Koch, a white man, by 0-5 percentage points in the closing weeks, only to win by 8 percentage points. Other counterexamples are available as well. Because of the mixed evidence, the Bradley/Wilder effect has been controversial. Gary Langer, director of polling for ABC news, has referred to the Bradley effect as "a theory in search of data."

Now Dan Hopkins has gathered some highly relevant information. In a recent paper he analyzes polling data and election outcomes for 133 gubernatorial and Senate races from 1989 to 2006. One result can be seen in this graph:



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/28/12476/1154/939/613339

[Spike89]

24. Multiple factors might be at play

I was struck by an odd statistic from the primaries--the "cell-phone" phenomena didn't manifest itself, i.e., Obama did pretty much what the polls predicted (or often, better) rather than worse. Now, if the cell phone effect means Obama is doing better than the polls suggest, and the Bradley effect says he'll do worse, they might pretty much nullify the errors. Sadly, the polls have become a part of the process--sometimes driving the campaign way more than the ideas and platforms instead of reflecting those.

[rucky]

26. I have indisputable proof of what you say!

Yard signs. :P

Hear me out: I live in a red red county, and I'm seeing a few Obama signs around - but mostly McCain signs and no shortage of open hostility towards Obama. But I AM seeing several homes with signs for down-ticket Dems, with no presidential campaign signs. My indisputable theory is that they're ashamed or worried about openly supporting Obama in front of their neighbors, but with other Dem signs on the yard (County Commissioner, etc) they're showing their support.

[MissMarple]

27. The economic melt down trumps gopper tax promises.

It is still the bottom line, they may just be seeing it a bit clearer now.