Another Ohio poll has Obama up outside the MOE, this time by 6!

[Drunken Irishman]

49-43

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/10/obama-emerges-ahead-in-ohio/

[Hope And Change]

1. K & R!

[dsc]

2. I can't find the MOE based on a cursory look

but unless it is 3 or under he is actually still within the MOE. You need to have a lead of double the +/- number.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. It'd then make it impossible for Obama to ever be outside the MOE.

Because I doubt he'll ever lead by a large enough margin.

[Abacus]

6. dsc is right and he's outside a hypothetical 3 point MoE in 42 of 51 contests.

Edit: It wouldn't make much sense to define moe any other way in polls with more than two options.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I think Obama's lead is outside the MOE, however, a McCain lead would be within the MOE.

[doc03]

4. Watch out they are fighting back. I got and ad from the f------g

NRA today claiming Obama will increase the price of rifle ammo to $500 a box and a hunting rifle to $5000.

[Divine Discontent]

5. they've scared to death my friend who was a lifelong Dem, who hunts

and his wife is a hardcore GOPer filling his head with lies like this. I told him Obama can't force the removal of weapons, and he's not going to anyhow, and even if he tried Congress wouldn't let him, but not to even think that, he's just going to make it not easy to get a gun.


MORE AT www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable

[kwolf68]

8. A Repuke friend of mine

Said he can't stand McCain and really hates Palin (he's not a religious guy)....he said,

'but i can't vote for a Democrat for two reasons....#1-I pay too much taxes and #2-I want to be able to have my gun"...

I tried to explain to him the gun thing...he seemed at peace with it, but last time I talked he was talking Libertarian, so I'd rather him vote Libertarian than Republican.

[IntravenousDemilo]

9. (...neither of which, of course, would violate the 2nd Amendment...) n/m

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Normal Distribution

I'm assuming the MOE is %3. What people have to understand is that probably means the error is represented in 3 standard deviations from the recorded data. It is very likely that The actual data indicates Obama is polling at 48-50. This would represent 1 standard deviation which is a %67 chance. McCain has a %67 chance (2/3) of polling at 42-44. The odds that Obama's actual is at the extreme lower end of the curve and McCain is at the extreme upper end of his curve is extremely small given normally distributed data. The odds of the "real" numbers actually being 52-40 are the same as the odds of them being 46-46. In my opinion a 6 point lead should really viewed as a 4-8 point lead in a poll with a %3 MOE.