Happy 5th Birthday, Lil Math Dude! :party: :party: :bounce: :bounce: :hi:1. ANALYSISTwenty-seven state polls have been released since last Thursday, showing five states strengthening for Barack Obama and only two states weakening.
Our Strong Obama column is filling up with states (see Figure 3c below). Four states moved into the Strong Obama category since last Thursday: Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21) and Washington (11). Obama now has 220 electoral votes from states in which he is leading by 10 points or greater. This is more than double the electoral votes John McCain is winning by 10 points or greater. McCain’s Strong column continues to lose states, as Montana moves into the Weak McCain column. Could Arkansas be far behind?
Minnesota and Virginia are still polling for Obama, but both states have weakened a bit since last Thursday. Minnesota moves from Strong Blue to Weak Blue, while Virginia moves back into the Lean Blue category.
Obama’s popular vote lead over John McCain climbs to 3.5%, or 4.5 million votes (see Figure 4a below). This is the largest lead Obama has held since late July. And Obama continues to widen his lead in the swing state polls by an overall margin of 50% to 42% (see Figure 5c below).
Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.2. NEW STATE POLLSScale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)
Colorado
Obama 44, McCain 43 (Ciruli Associates, 9/21, +/- 4.4, 501 RV)
Colorado
Obama 44, McCain 44 (Mason-Dixon, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Georgia
Obama 44, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 561 LV)
Indiana
Obama 45, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 9/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky
Obama 42, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine
Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan
Obama 51, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/1, +/- 3.6, 731 LV)
Minnesota
Obama 46, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 10/1, +/- 3.7, 725 LV)
Minnesota
Obama 55, McCain 37 (Star-Tribune, 10/2, +/- 3.7, 1084 LV)
Montana
Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nebraska
Obama 37, McCain 56 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada
Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire
Obama 49, McCain 37 (St. Anselm College, 9/30, +/- 3.5, 823 LV)
New Hampshire
Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Mexico
Obama 52, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/30, +/- 3.8, 698 LV)
New Mexico
Obama 49, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New York
Obama 58, McCain 36 (Siena College, 9/29, +/- 4.0, 631 RV)
North Carolina
Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina
Obama 44, McCain 42 (Elon University, 9/30, +/- 4.6, 477 RV)
Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 42 (Columbus Dispatch, 9/30, +/- 2.0, 2262 LV)
Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 43 (Democracy Corps, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 50, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 50, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 51, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/3, +/- 4.0, 597 LV)
Pennsylvania
Obama 50, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/4, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia
Obama 45, McCain 48 (Mason-Dixon, 10/1, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Washington
Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/2, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information 7. LINKS AND SOURCESYesterday’s WidgetFull Weekly TrackingSaturday Data DumpPast editions of THE MATHSources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes.