Why Obama CAN Attack Now (and Couldn't Two Weeks Ago)

[alcibiades_mystery]

I like the idea that Obama is responding to McCain's plan to turn the campaign negative. It's good window dressing, but it's largely bullshit. Obama's been facing negative swift Boating shit since August, but he had to play the cool role because the undecideds were still up for grabs in large numbers. They cemented strongly after the two debates we've seen. That's not really going to change. Obama's holding steady at 48-50%, with McCain fluctuating between 41-43%. That means that about 7% are still "unaccounted for." McCain can't get 100% of those. Even if he takes 60% of them, Obama still wins big. These dynamics aren't going to change this late in the race. People were waiting for a signal that Obama was presidential material, and that mcCain/Palin weren't. That picture solidified during Obama's gentle performance, and during Palin's disastrous debate performance.

So, why launch the attacks now? Clearly, there's a feeling of striking back at the McCain/Palin attacks. But there's also something else, as follows:

1) A street fight now revs up the Democratic base. They still need turnout of the base to be large, and a month long slugfest gets everybody invested.
2) The independents who are not decided will tune out. Many of them will not vote. This isn't a bad thing given the polls. McCain needs a) erosion of the Obama brand (which simply isn't going to happen this late in the game) and b) high turnout among sudden indy converts, which is precisely what his decision to go hard negative will prevent.

It's a conundrum for the McCain people, because in order to accomplish a), you necessarily subvert b). They have to work at cross purposes to their real needs. They've opted to gamble on erosion. The fact that Obama is responding shows that he doesn't see erosion really happening, and the undecideds contest is already decided.

Finally, it's a money thing. The deeper McCain gets pulled into the slugfest, the more he has to spend on nit, rather than producing a positive plan. This is the key reason why erosion will not set it: Obama is the only one out there with a positive plan.

Two weeks ago attacking didn't make much sense. Today it makes plenty of sense. So get ready to rumble, brothers and sisters. But keep your shit together and hold the line.

[Chichiri]

1. How is it that this post has 8 recs (9 now) but no replies?

Great stuff.

[Mimosa]

2. Good analysis, Alcibiades.

I think the Obama campaign is doing FINE!!!! Good strategy from Axelrod and Plouffe.

We need to use our bumperstickers, yard signs, and get out there in the streets.

[myrna minx]

3. In addition, McCain/Palin have been speaking to their base, and that's

not wise this late in the race. Obama/Biden have been consistently speaking to the undecideds for 6 weeks, demonstrating that they are even keeled and ready to serve in their respective offices from day one. McCain/Palin have been bitter, and still throwing red meat to their base, which is a turn off for the undecideds and independents.

[No Elephants]

4. Dems are not the only street fighters. In fact, I see Dems argue issues while Pubs

argue people.

Keating 5 is a legit government issue, involving corruption of public officials and bank de-regulation, in which McCain was directly involved. Obama had nothing to do with the Ayers anti war activism or with writing Wright's sermons. Big difference between what Obama is doing and McCain's attempts to smear by association.

Obama-class McCain-gutter.

[Barack_America]

5. Not only that, but they're framing their attack as an economic issue....

So it's not even off-topic.

Very clever.

[Imagevision]

6. Obama camp stated they wern't taking the Keating r incident off the table 7-8 months ago, so

timing is key to Obama moves. I believe Obama's other shoe is yet to drop. Mccain is on the offensive and Obama seems not to have worries dealing with them.

[eshfemme]

7. Yes, I agree. Obama aptly embodies the vast gap between a strategist and a tactician.

It's not the attack you choose to use, it's the TIMING and AIM of it that makes it lethal.

That was the mistake Hillary made with her kitchen sink assault because she was essentially vetting Obama for us and it was too late in the game for her to do so after Obama had already established the basics of his brand. She did do some damage so that the Republicans who were already decided just copy and paste the same talking points about him. But like Hillary, McCain's tactic won't do anything but shore up existing support and do nothing about bringing in the independents. Plus, there was a key difference in the primary battle and the general election that the McCain camp neglect to take into account when they try to take lessons from that battle and that's the fact that Hillary vs Obama was a duel between partisan wings of the liberal bases with strong pro-Obama indications amongst the few independents and Republicans allowed to participate. The general election isn't a duel between the partisan bases anymore. It's a completely different animal.

It was a mistake for McCain to pull these attacks right now especially as Obama's already pre-empted these attacks by floating a "McCain is dishonorable" storyline out there. McCain's simply playing into Obama's overall strategy by reacting in the way that Republicans always react. It also frees Obama up to do a counterattack that's really an offensive that appears defensive which gives the perk of having Obama remain above the fray while also damaging his opponent.

Seriously, this is why strategy matters.

Hence why I found it so amusing when McCain claimed that Obama didn't know the difference between strategy and tactics in the first debate.

[intheflow]

8. They've been Swift-boating Obama since at least January.

Which only illustrates Obama's incredible patience, tact, and strategies. Good, thoughtful post. :)