Rev Wright is wrong Now: It's still the Economy stupid! Why McCain can't win that way!

[Joanne98]

by math4barack
Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 08:22:04 AM PDT
So, apparently, the McCain camp is going to go negative! Well, that's not a big surprise. And a lot of people expected them to attempt to use the Reverend Wright and Ayers "associations", even now.

But it is pretty clear right now that this won't work.

Let's talk about why it won't work here.

I highly recommend Bonddad's latest diary (as I do virtually anything Bonddad writes).

http://www.dailykos.com/...

Extremely informative, very well written, detailed and yet very easily read and understood for non-economists like me.

math4barack's diary :: ::
First, a couple of the facts from Bondad:

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 159,000 in September, and the unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade, while mining and health care continued to add jobs.

The situation he describes doesn't sound good or like it will be improving. However, since he understands this subject so much better and has written such an excellent diary, I recommend that you go to his diary to find out more about this topic, especially at this time.

http://www.dailykos.com/...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

We all know why McCain tanked: It became increasingly obvious what is happening to most Americans in this economy as it goes south: voters are hurting and McCain has no answers.

This leads to the polls. In the past, I have tried to provide a lot of the numbers in one place for "one stop state of the race" Daily Kos Home Analysis from a nonStatistician. However, 538 is updated pretty much daily so they are very up to date and Nate Silver is a statistician, an awesome one and that. I won't give quite as many numbers this time since that's not the focus of this diary.

We all know John McCain is in deep trouble.

Daily Tracking Poll leads for Obama are 12, 7, 6 and 6 (Battleground out, per Nate).
Average lead is 8. Job loss numbers don't help McCain, Biden won the debate, thanks Al Rodgers and others with great graphics, so that won't help McCain either ! I am trying to become high tech and learn to get pictures in here. Nobody has ever come from this far back before with this little time before the election.

Libertarian friend points out Rasmussen's statement: McCain faces very steep challenge here:

http://www.dailykos.com/...

Race appears to have stabilized and won't move back toward McCain.

A 7 point national lead is not going to provide any way for McCain to win electorally. There are no scenarios where McCain loses the national popular vote by 7 percentage points and wins the electoral college.

Briefly,on defense: NH: recent polling has shown that New Hampshire is firmly in Obama's column. PA looks solid for Obama, but he will need to continue to campaign there. He seems to be up at least 6 points, probably more. Michigan, as well all know by now, looks so bad for McCain, that he finally decided to pull out. WI is and remains solid for Obama. While Ras doesn't show a large lead there, Obama has held a lead in every poll taken and is closer to 50 or passes it often, McCain never does.

Regarding MN, I don't want to take up too much space on this, but SUSA poll I think was wrong and I detail why. And I know Q pollster is a good pollster and agrees that it is close there, but Obama is still ahead there, even though it is close. If you want more info about the SUSA poll, you can look at the bottom of this diary!

On offense: Obama is way up in Iowa, way up in New Mexico, up in Colorado, up in Virginia, up in Florida, slightly up in Ohio, probably tied in North Carolina and Nevada, competitive in Indiana and Missouri, and closer than expected elsewhere.

He has an enormous number of ways to get past 270. McCain is behind in many states he simply must win in order to get to 270. He is tied in many other states he must win to get to 270. In other states, he is barely ahead and these are states he must retain to get to 270.

Thus, we see the McCain camp's sheer desperation:

"We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

But as Robert Gibbs (a great spokesperson for Obama) says, "

"This isn't 1988," he said. "I don't think the country is going to be distracted by the trivial." He added that Obama will continue to focus on the economy, saying that Americans will remain concerned about the country's economic troubles even as the Wall Street crisis eases somewhat.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Chris Matthews spoke with his frienD, the formEr owner of The parent company of the NBC netwoRk, Jack Welch, whO told hIm thaT fourth quarter was going to be a period of huge, negative contraction in the econoMy.
Therefore, he wAs focused on the economy coming into FRiday. For that reason, he also severely critiqued Sarah Palin's performance (this time, kudos to Chris- you never Know what you get from hIm, but yeSterday was a Strong day from him!).

AfTer Chris, Bob ShrUm and Pat Buchanan had dIscusseD the VP debate some, they discussed the state of the race. It was pretty clear that McCain is is deep, deep trouble. So, Chris asks Bob Shrum if McCain is going to change the conversation.

Bob Shrum says that this is one of those times where American voters actually get to decide the topic of conversation. It will be about not what they see on tv, but about what is going on in their daily lives, their inability to get a loan for a car or a home, their financial problems.

They all end up agreeing that this is the case. Chris Matthews states that McCain's downfall was sealed when he said that the fundamentals of the economy were sound.

Even Pat Buchanan gets in on the act. Pat pointed out that this statement was a wrong step and the statement about firing Chris Cox was a mistake and that Obama has looked calm and cool during this time period. Even Krauthaummer has agreed.

Later, with guests Michelle Bernard and Chris Cillizza, Matthews asks Michelle Bernard and Chris Cillizza if McCain can throw a dirtball and say, (and I am paraphrasing here) "You know, I have never understood how you could be in that church with this guy for 20 years who hates America and be associated with Ayers, Barack Hussein Obama. You're not one of us.". Matthews asks, "Can McCain do something like that?"
Michelle Bernard and Chris Cillizza agreed that in this economy with voters hurting McCain cannot change the conversation. They say that this would be extremely risky. They say that perhaps 527 groups might be able to do this, but McCain for certain cannot.

<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27014196#27014196" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

However, if McCain does not distance himself or criticize anyone who makes these types of attacks, his numbers will plummet. And that will be even more the case if those attacks come from official McCain spokespeople or surrogates or even the Republican party. The reason for that is simple. The American people are hurting economically. They want answers and solutions to those pains right now!!! They want to know who has plans that will work for them in their daily lives right now!!! That's the change they are looking for!!! Anybody who doesn't answer those questions and brings up anything else up to them in trying to win their vote and doesn't answer their questions about their needs and address their economic hurts right now is insulting them when they ask for a vote and they know it!!!

Therefore, any group advocating for McCain by trying to use old, loose, weak past associations instead of arguing for McCain using economic policies is going to be making a mistake.

The American people won't choose their President based upon old, loose, weak, past associations that aren't relevant to their daily lives when they are hurting economically. They will vote for the person whom they believe will most help them economically and that person is Barack Obama!!!


Timeline of McCain on Economics (believe this is right, but if not, feel free to list the right date and some I don't have dates for:

Economics is not something I've understood as well as I should.

McCain says he doesn't know how many houses he owns! between 8 and 11. and 7 cars and I believe 1 place.

McCain repeatedly says "Economy is fundamentally sound" including Monday, September 22.

McCain says on Monday, September 22, "AIG should not be bailed out".

McCain says on Tuesday Sept 23, "AIG must be bailed out and there must be a bailout bill passed or a Great Depression will start Monday"

McCain says on Wednesday September 23 that he suspends his campaign and cancels/ suspends debate until a bailout bill is passed. He says he won't phone it in.

McCain debates Obama on Friday September 25.

McCain phones it in on Sat Sept 26 (not showing up in person to help put together a rescue package).

McCain takes credit for getting bailout bill passed on Monday September 29, in the morning.

Bill fails Monday afternoon because 67 % Republicans vote against it.

Monday night Spetember 29 McCain passes buck and blame on Obama.

The 35 to 50 age group was way off, the 50 to 64 age group was way off , the greater than 65 age group was way off!!!
35 to 50 was 35 % but should have been 23 % !!!
50 to 64 was 23 %, but should have been 14 % Major Mistake!!!
Over 65 was 19 %, but should have been 12.25 % (Huge error favoring Republicans in this election given McCain's age and older voters reluctance to vote for a candidate of a different ethnicity (ie older voters are more likely to be racist- sad, but true)!!!
3 major errors!!!!

Minnesota
10-02 SUSA McCain 725 LV McCain + 1
9-29 CNN Obama 53 41 849 LV
9-18 Quinnipiac 47 45 1301 LV
9-18 Rasmussen 52 44 500 LV

Out of 15 polls, this is the one and only poll that has ever shown McCain in the lead in Minnesota. SUSA has always pegged this race close as has Quinnipiac. Rasmussen, CNN, and Humphreys never have.

I am moving the rest of the info about this below so it won't distract. If it interests you, you can see it at the bottom of the diary!.
Not counting the SUSA poll: Of the 15 polls, McCain has reached 47 twice. He has reached 46 once in June. He has hit 45: four times, twice in August and twice in September. He’s hit 44 (or 44.5) three times. He’s hit 41, 39, 38 and 37 each once.

Of the 15 polls, Obama has polled at 45 once in September in the Star Tribune. He’s hit 46 once also in July in a Q poll. He’s hit 47 four times. He’s hit 48 twice. He’s hit 49 twice. He’s hit 50 never. He’s hit 51 once. He’s hit 52 twice. He’s hit 53 once in September in the CNN poll. He’s hit 54 once in a Rasmussen poll.

The difference is stark isn’t it. Obama’s nadir is McCain’s apex.

McCain peaks at Obama’s low numbers.

McCain very rarely approaches 50. Obama often approaches fifty and frequently surpasses it.

Obama has been ahead in all but one poll in which he was tied, excepting this one poll. Nate has Obama listed as a 92 % favorite to win Minnesota and I think the numbers give us a basis for believing that the SUSA poll is quite wrong. Obama is ahead by 8 or so probably.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/4/94539/4502/534/619838