For those freaking out about Minnesota...

[gcomeau]

Nate Silver to the rescue: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-103.html

Bottom line, that article perfectly lays out why there is no cause for worry, and why Obama's campaign team are geniuses. So McCain poured tens of millions of dollars into Minnesota and closed the gap. While he was doing it Obama was playing that expanded map and knocking him on his ass in half a dozen other states that McCain couldn't afford to stand toe to toe with him in while he emptied his campaign coffers into MN. And you think now that Michigan is falling off the battleground column Obama isn't going to do a little something abut Minnesota with those freed up resources? Riiiight... McCain is toast.

That said, complacency is still the enemy.

[still_one]

1. I am not worried, all the other polls contradict Survey USA

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

[TheDebbieDee]

5. But most of these polls use likely voters - they don't

include any of the newly registered Democrats that could amount to hundreds of thousands of votes across dozens of states. These people don't get contacted by any/most of these polls.

This means that if a poll shows that Obama has, say, a 15 point lead in Pennsylvania, then his actual lead is even higher than that that.

And if a poll shows that Obama is 2 or 3 points behind, then hes probably ahead. I realize that this sounds Pollyanna-ish, but I'd bet my last dollar that I'm right. I think we Democrats will FINALLY get our landslide next month.

[still_one]

8. You and I are in complete agreement /nt

[woolldog]

9. What evidence do you have of a large number

of newly registered voters in Minnesota?

In states like NC, GA, VA, FL, I agree. But I don't know how aggressive Obama has been in MN. It seems like he's barely campaigned there at all.

[mascarax]

15. Voter Registration

Voter registration has gone up in MN, and the SOS thinks it'll be almost 90% by election day. MN always has a high voter %age.

Obama does not some campaigning here - others even, if not him. Biden would be good. Michelle. Or other high profilers.

[KamaAina]

17. Not to mention MN has same-day registration

That's what put former Gov. Jesse "The Body" Ventura over the top: people, especially young people, registering at the polls and then voting for the change candidate. Sound familiar?

edit: former (who would've thought they could do worse! :eyes: )

[AzNick]

2. Let's overspend there as well... n/t

[Barack_America]

3. Thanks. Also, on average, McCain never led in MN.

Not once.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

[Hansel]

4. Gee thanks Obama. Cause we in MN love McCain's ads.

They are especially endearing when coupled with Norm Coleman's ads about Franken being a psychotic killer and baby eater who will raise your taxes and write about raping your daughters, or whatever the hell he's talking about.

Their ads are sickening. Franken's are some of the best though.

[NotThisTime]

23. I'm in VT & literally have to watch McCain ad's everytime I turn the TV on - I feel your pain

[DCBob]

6. I hope the McCain campaign continues to think they might win in MN and ...

continue to dump millions down a rathole there. This allows Obama to steal even more red states.

[woolldog]

7. I see.

Hopefully, they can start pouring resources into MN quickly, b/c it's really needed.

[myrna minx]

11. No they don't. I live in Minnesota and all of this panic is unwarranted.

McCain and Coleman have been bombarding us with ads this summer, but MCCain has not caught up with Obama. Team Obama in Minnesota is doing a fantastic job. Minnesota will go for Obama.

[woolldog]

12. I don't agree.

Read the link in the OP. McCain has bought his way into a competitivene race in Minnesota. McCain outspent Obama there last week 3:1.

Coleman and Franken are in a dead heat. What makes you think it's any different now for the Presidential race?

Obama knows he's in trouble in MN. That's why he pulled out staff from ND and brought them into MN. Expect to see him campaigning there hard soon....I hope.

[FVZA_Colonel]

13. Well, if he has pulled his staff out, I doubt he'll be ignoring it.

Right now Minnesota, and to a much lesser extent Wisconsin, are the only real trouble spots. Shore those up, and I think we'll be fine.

[DCBob]

14. It's a rope-a-dope. McCain has been duped into thinking he can win there.

McCain will blow time and millions there while Obama quietly steals red states.

[woolldog]

16. Playing rope a dope is all fine and good....

until you get punched in the face by an unexpected left hook.

[DCBob]

18. What makes you think the Obama campaign is so inept?

Do you really think you see weaknesses that they do not? The Obama campaign is probably the best run operation in the history of politics. I doubt they will be caught off guard.

[myrna minx]

19. Please read the following link.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3525930&mesg_id=3526180

McCain has been wasting his money here: he's been advertising for a few months and his bizarre ads are bundled with Coleman's brutal attack ads against Al Franken's character, not his policies. That kind of approach is a huge turn off in Minnesota. To understand Minnesota voting trends, you have to understand the people.

Minnesotans will vote for a person of a different party (See Jesse Ventura or Arnie Carlson winning the Governorship as a "write in" candidate) if they think that person is decent and has good character and will bring change if that is the prevailing perception. (See Paul Wellstone in 1990) In 2002, I worked with staunch Republicans who respected Wellstone for his "no" vote on the IWR, because it demonstrated his conscience of character, has his ability to make decisions of conscience and not due to political expediency and pressure. In fact, after his "no" vote he jumped in the polls.

Minnesota is a state that can have Paul Wellstone and super conservative Rod Grams (who served one term, to be replaced my Mark Dayton) in the Senate at the same time. We have a super conservative Governor who has high approval ratings, and wingnut Bachmann in the House, but we will also send Keith Ellison to the House too.

In 2006, there was a propaganda ad blitz about the Iraq war from "Progress for America" and Minnesota was the trial market. They were hyperbolic ads, stating if you don't support the war, you're basically anti-troop and anti American. They were so inflammatory, one local TV station wouldn't even air them. I couldn't find the exact ads that aired here, but the following are examples of their approach.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=160x17057#17058

Here are some examples of their ads:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwrSSNVoBl0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCQyejML5c0


Well, these ads were a huge flop, because Minnesotans rejected the nastiness of the premise. I guarantee because Minnesota resoundingly rejected these ads, this is why they weren't broadcast across the USA. Minnesotans aren't stupid, and we know when we are being played for fools, by highly manipulative ads.

Coleman's attack ads are so nasty and personal, and have been airing with such frequency, that people are growing sick and tired of them. He doesn't know the people he is trying to bring to his camp. McCain's ads are bundled with these nasty ads, so how could we not associate McCain with Coleman?

We may have polar opposite diverse representation, but Minnesotans take their politics very seriously. North Dakota is similar in that while they always give their electoral collage vote to the republican Presidential nominee, they send Byron Dorgan to the Senate.

I know my state and I know the people here. I agree it would be wise for Obama to start airing positive ads as we approach election day, but IMHO, McCain's ads aren't as effective as Survey USA is suggesting.

[Hong Kong Cavalier]

25. Not anymore: Franken leades Coleman 43 to 34 percent

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/30451119.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiUo8cyaiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU">Franken bypasses Coleman as voters react to attack ads

The independent candidate is actually taking votes away from Coleman more than Franken.

[progressivebydesign]

10. SurveyUSA has been called on the carpet before for undersampling particular groups.

They seem to use outdated numbers to create a sample -- when the voting demographic is of the charts now in terms of new voters, young voters, and voters of color.

[krispos42]

20. I'd like to see a few positive Obama adds in the remaining weeks...

To contrast with the nasty McCain ads. Also, Obama is good for down-ticket Dems like Franken and Tinkenberg (running against nutcase Bachmann).

Ads linking Obama and Franken would probably be great as well.

[Eric J in MN]

21. Obama should make another high-profile visit to MN.

He made a low-profile fundraising trip recently, but his two big events in MN (a big rally in Minneapolis before the Feb caucus and a big rally in St. Paul after clinching the nomination) were a relatively long time ago.

I'd like it if Obama gave a speech in southern MN, the Twin Cities area, and northern MN in one day.

[Robbins]

22. Minnesotta

Survey USA a few times In the primarys underperformed Obama's appeal.Hillary Supporters can tell you
while they were right In Some states others they were wrong.Every other poll has Obama ahead.
Q's poll which had Obama up by 2 was taken before the surge towards Obama.

A new poll out of Minnesotta has Franken leading Coleman by 7(It was done by a Minnesotta Paper not
a national group) and this should help calm the painicking about Survey USA'S poll.

[ibegurpard]

24. Just read an article

Franken is leading Coleman in Minnesota. No way would that be possible if Obama was losing the state.