How LOW can he GO? McCain about to drop below 30 on Intrade! HAPPY FRIDAY!

[Brotherjohn]

http://www.intrade.com/

And Obama above 70!

Currently 69.4 Obama, 30.2 McCain.

[Happyhippychick]

1. I love the sight of a McCain implosion. Thanks for sharing, off to check it out.

[Cirque du So-What]

2. Cheers!

:toast:

Here's to your swift, irrevocable implosion, McAnus!

[shaniqua6392]

3. How accurate has this been in the past?

I know it is essentially just for fun but it sure is exciting!!

[Brotherjohn]

4. I don't know how accurate it's been; it's just betting/futures, I guess. But it sure looks good!

Hovered around 50-50 for the longest time (at best, Obama would be up by 52-48 even when he would have a poll lead).

But NOW...!

[galaxy21]

5. cool n/t

[unfrigginreal]

6. Ha Ha Ha...he's at 30 now

and all the freeps were over here right after the puke convention asking us "What's Intrade saying?"

LOL

:rofl:

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I'm still amazed McCain became the favorite a couple of weeks ago

I never thought Obama would drop below 55. A friend of mine is incredibly sharp on Intrade pricing and he also isolated 55 as his "Go" price on Obama.

We played at 53 then were astonished when it plummeted below 50. That allowed pressing up at 47 and 48 and 50.

Hell, even Nate Silver had McCain the favorite for a while. Completely bizarre. Polling should never trump the situational factors.

Posters who don't follow Intrade or other markets need to understand the significance of this move. An Intrade rise from 60 to 70 is markedly more significant from 50 to 60. I'm not sure that is widely recognized. These numbers are hardly created equal. Look at it from an odds standpoint: 50/50 is obviously dead even theoretical likelihood; 60/40 equates to -150, or 3 chances in 5. That's a jump but not massive. It's the reason there is plenty of fluidity between 50 and 60 either way on Intrade.

But once you move from 60 to 70, that's the difference between -150 and -233 money line odds. Note instead of a 50 cent move from 50 to 60, it's an 83 cent jump. And every point upward is similarly more significant. It's hardly linear.

If gamblers are willing to invest at this exponentially higher rate than they could have had merely two weeks ago, it's theoretically a great sign for Obama.

[renate]

8. for us non-intraders...

Does this mean Obama has a 70% chance of winning, or... ?

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Yes, theoretically

It can be looked at as a group opinion of estimated likelihood at a given point in time.

Keep in mind that outcomes far in advance are generally understated in market odds. There has to be some necessary play in the number for unexpected events. For example, if someone put up odds tomorrow on Tiger Woods being the number one ranked golfer three years from now, there are many more factors in play than whether anyone would be better than him on the course. He might aggravate his injury, or be otherwise hurt, many variables. It would hardly be a 90% certainty. The wise guys would jump all over the No.

To a lesser extent, that same principle applies to market odds on the election. But the closer we get to election day, the potential for uncertainty lessens and the market price rises, even if the poll margins do not rise. In fact, on election eve Obama could be trading at 90+% even if his national poll margin is two points lower than it is right now, simply because almost every barrier has been cleared.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Replying to my own post

Sorry about that. But I wanted to add something to my final point, about the necessary play in the number for an outcome long in advance.

That's what a Nate Silver, and others who fixate on the math, fail to recognize when they complain that Intrade or other markets don't mirror their astronomical expectations. His model looks at this race within a vacuum, no prospect of an outside event. Speculators can't do that. They would be fools to do that. I can apply dozens of examples in the 20+ years I've been in Las Vegas. Here's one: I wagered on number of cars still to be running at the end of the Indianapolis 500, below 14.5. It was down to 14 with 30 laps to go. Sure winner, right? Not exactly. A Mexican who had been out of the race for more than two hours decided to spin two joy laps at low speed at the very end of the race, out of way of the leaders. I'll never forget his name, Josele Garza.

You can't assume absolute normalcy, not when investing actual cash as opposed to merely tinkering with digits.

[renate]

16. Thanks so much for that explanation!

And for the explanation of how odds can be different depending on the time that's left until the outcome will be decided.

Much appreciated! :thumbsup:

[Awsi Dooger]

17. You're welcome, renate

For some reason that time lag variable is seldom emphasized.

It was a long learning curve for myself in the '80s. Initially I wanted to pounce on anything that looked like an obvious bargain in sportsbook odds, disregarding the potential for intervening factors. Two sharp guys mocked me, literally laughing. I'd mumble under my breath and it took me quite a while to concede they were correct.

[TexasObserver]

10. Let's hope he, like Pete Rose, bet on himself.

[4_Legs_Good]

11. I can't believe we're over 2-to-1 on Intrade now

3-to-1 on CNN political market.

Ahhhhhhh...

David

[Cosmic Charlie]

12. 73.9 Obama 29.7 McCain

And down goes McCain!!!!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

14. I think it's over-Obama has it-but we need to keep playing like we're behind. No 4 corner offense!

[asdjrocky]

15. Intrade is where everyone working in campaigns looks.

This is a better sign than any of the polls.

[DCBob]

18. I guess this is a good indication of the impact of Palin's "incredible" performance last night.

It was a dud.

[amborin]

19. WSJ article on deciphering those markets:

<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122283114935193363.html>