Obama losing Minnesota

[woolldog]

* McCain-47% Obama-46% (10/2/08)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0782fede-2757-4c86-9479-f84f02afc9fb

What's going on here?

SurveyUSA has had the race in Minnesota close for a while now:

9/11 Obama-49% McCain-47%
8/14 Obama-47% McCain-45%
6/15 Obama-46% McCain-45%

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

* Quinnipiac, which has been one of the most accurate pollsters has Minnesota at Obama 47% McCain 45%. This tends to confirm SurveyUSA's recent poll.


* Looking at Rasmussen's recent favorability numbers can be useful too. Obama's numbers are through the roof. 64% have a favorable impression of Obama. Only 52% have a favorable impression of McCain, which is still pretty good. Rasmussen has Obama with an 8 point lead in a 9/18 poll. I don't understand why SUSA's an QU's numbers are so close?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election

I thought MN would be a blowout. Could Obama lose MN???

[ShortnFiery]

1. Uh, well within the margin of error. But thanks for your concern. eom

[woolldog]

11. that's the problem, Einstein.

It shouldn't be within the margin of error in Minnesota.

[ronnykmarshall]

25. SNAP!

[Bucky]

61. Note to self:

Never fuck with wooldog.

[ShortnFiery]

81. I'd much rather fuck with wooldog, than be a sycophant of anyone.

:evilgrin:

[ShortnFiery]

80. Hello?!? Being within the margin of error (MOE) doesn't equate to "Obama Losing", Genius.

:eyes:

[Essene]

2. wait a few days to look for a trend

[ingac70]

3. ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

[americanstranger]

4. Outlier.

No way McCain is doing better among young voters in MN than Obama. No freakin' way.

- as

[Bucky]

66. More data for you, my friends

from e-v.com






from TPM election central

* McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 46% - Oct 2 SurveyUSA
* Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 43% - Oct 1 CNN
* Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45% - Sep 23 Quinnipiac

[unfrigginreal]

5. Bullshit poll

Oversampled Twin Cities with 58% of respondents and that went to Bush in '04 by around 12 pts. Should have sampled around 21%. It's pure bullshit.

[budkin]

6. No way in hell Obama will lose MN

[AndyA]

7. Give it a few more days.

Public opinion changes slower than the events that cause opinion to change. With the financial market bailout, the VP debates, etc., I think there will be more movement in a few days. Some polls also tend to run behind a couple of days as well.

At any rate, we can't be over confident about anything at this point. We must keep fighting!

[msallied]

8. Frankly, the SUSA polls are always kind of out there...

I really don't see McCain getting Minnesota here.

[woolldog]

20. But it's not just SUSA that has it close in MN

Quinnipiac does as well. and QU is a good pollster. ARG has it tied. The Minnesota Star Tribune has it tied.

Frankly the only pollsters who don't have it close are CNN and Rasmussen. This is CNN's first poll of MN and I don't trust their ability to do a good MN polls the first time out.

It looks like MN is moving to McCain.

edit correction: apparently it's not CNN's first poll of MN.

[Teaser]

28. 40 Bucks says your wrong.

I'll just need your email and a paypal address.

[woolldog]

39. Wrong about what?

I'm not predicting he's going to lose MN. I'm worried about the prospect.

[Bake]

43. I'll ... ahem ... hold the money for the bettors ...

:rofl:

Bake

[unfrigginreal]

57. LOL!

So the good pollsters show an Obama blowout and the questionable pollsters show it close. Yeah, I feel your concern.

[woolldog]

60. When SUSA and QU

had Obama up big in VA, and FL, OH, and PA, were you complaining about them being crappy polling companies?

[unfrigginreal]

69. They've always been crappy polling companies.

Sorry it doesn't fit your meme for this thread.

[woolldog]

71. They were actually very accurate during the primaries.

2 of the most accurate as a matter of fact.



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

[WI_DEM]

78. Why are you not mentioning the CNN/Time poll out yesterday with Obama up by 11?

[woolldog]

79. I'm not sure what you mean.

The post you're responding to (#20) mentions the CNN poll explicitly.

[Bucky]

67. Who, the robo-call survey company? Why would you question their results

Do you question the wisdom of robots? Do you want them knowing that you question them?

[blondeatlast]

9. A two percent swing either way means Obama is losing? Even Frank Luntz couldn't spin

that like you tried to do.

[Miss Chybil]

10. One point?

That can hardly be viewed as "losing."

[Morning Dew]

12. I notice a boatload of McCain signs in the 'burbs

Obama, not so much.

The campaign needs to pass out free signs like Halloween candy.

[jrockford]

50. For some reason the DFL and Obama offices NEVER have signs...they are always out

I don't even have one. I call every week, they claim to get them on Saturday, but they are never there. I've got all the DFL signs in my area, but not Obama.

I live in a republican neighbourhood...so I'm beginning to see more and more McCain signs - yet, not nearly as much with the Obama signs.

Am I worried? Well, no. I figure the lack of Obama signs is because the offices here just don't have them. So I wouldn't use the lack of Obama signs as a lack of support, not exactly - because they just aren't locally available and I've been trying to get one since the state fair.

[Thrill]

13. Ask yourself. When was the last time McCain or Obama was in Minnesota?

That lets me know Minnesota is safe

[FrenchieCat]

14. Minnesota is fine.......fucking look it up!

Just an outlier to help McCain stay in the frey.

[grantcart]

42. Obama is trying to sucker McCain to waste money in ad buys in places like

MN and NH where he has outspent Obama $ 7 million in the last month as Obama has been pulling red states into his column.

Now without any ad buys at all a new poll shows NH Obama +7 and McCain cannot get that money back.


Just wish he would go back to Michigan and waste some more money there.

[ITsec]

15. It's a one point spread...

And we're still 5 weeks out. Nothing is over until the levers are pulled.

[suston96]

16. Try this and all will be well again.......

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

[lojasmo]

17. The internals are all screwy

Pointed out at mnpublius.com

SUSA is the suxorz.

[Teaser]

18. WRONG. FAIL.

SurveyUSA 09/30 - 10/01 725 LV 46 47 McCain +1
CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 849 LV 54 43 Obama +11
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP 09/14 - 09/21 1301 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Rasmussen 09/18 - 09/18 500 LV 52 44 Obama +8

Do you really think the picture flipped that much from 9/30?

[PolNewf]

19. SurveyUSA also had him down 20 in NC n/t

[woolldog]

24. True, but see my post # 20

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7302396&mesg_id=7302565

[Teaser]

29. So, CNN has him up double digits in MN

average them.

[PolNewf]

41. The Quinnipiac poll started on the 14th-21

Most polls were still tightened from the RNC bounce at that point. Look at the Wisconsin polls then compared to now. I expect you will see a Minnesota bounce as well. For that reason I put more stock in the CNN poll.

The SurveyUSA crosstabs are seriously messed up.

[woolldog]

56. Good point. n/t

[progressivebydesign]

55. SUSA has a history of undersampling black voters. n/t

[grantcart]

21. This is the rope a dope strategy

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart/157


Rather than putting blued states away Obama is investing his maximum resources into red states - going on the offensive so that instead of allowing McCain to concentrate his limited resources in 5-6 states McCain has to compete in 12-15 or quit them like he did in Michigan.

While Obama has spent nothing on media in MN McCain has wasted $ 2 million - 2 million that he now cannot spend in VA or IN.

At the right time and if needed Obama can spend money in MN and WI and push the blue states bluer.






edited to add ad buys link

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/

[msallied]

22. Rope a Dope Strategy! I love it!

Is that an official term? Because it should be. And it's brilliant. Obama really is like Ali.

[grantcart]

31. Oh and btw new poll shows Obama + 12 in NH so that line is going to drop another slot

tomorrow.


Another $ 4 million McCain dollars down the drain.

[msallied]

34. hahahaha! Why haven't we ever employed this strategy before?

My god, if we'd done this in 2004, we'd be sitting pretty right about now!

[frickaline]

30. makes sense (nt)

[woolldog]

36. I'm not really worried about WI b/c I know Obama is popular there.

And he campaigned in WI during the primaries, alot. Not so much MN.

Didn't Obama pull some of his staff from the Dakotas and put them into Minnesota or something?

If he's going to invest in MN he should probably do it now, as voters are getting more and more set in who they're going to vote for. That's the problem with McCain's strategy of just now opeining up offices and running ads in VA, NC, and IN. People get less flexible this late into election season.

Obama doesn't need all those red states. He just needs one. But he can't afford to lose MN.

[MadBadger]

37. Why do you trust this SUSA poll more than the CNN poll taken basically the same time?

[PolNewf]

Because the crosstabs of the SurveyUSA poll are seriously messed up

It has about as much chance of being true as a poll showing McCain winning the black vote.

[woolldog]

51. I don't know CNNs track record in MN

How well do they know MN? How often have they been in the field there?

I tend to trust SUSA and QU, maybe irrationally, but those are my favorite pollsters. (except I don't trust either for southern states.) They both have the race tight there. ARG has it tied. And so does the local MN Star Tribune.

[MadBadger]

52. Do you even look at dates for polls? the MN Star Tribune was the middle of September.

[woolldog]

58. I know, but on 538 if you look at the polls

it's been consistently close in MN.

[vaberella]

45. That's the plan GC. Always straight to the point and knowing the details. n/t

[MN Treehugger]

23. There are quite a few McLiverSpot signs in the suburbs

But they tend to be in higher "swing" areas. I really can't see MN going red.

I can tell you that it's been difficult to get yard signs here. It took me about three weeks to get mine and they were almost out by the time I got there (and they had just gotten them in).

[Barack_America]

26. MN has been essentially tied since June...

What is so different about this latest poll?

The GOP had their convention there and got a lot of free press. McCain's running mate may not be from MN, as was expected, but she speaks with a fake MN accent.

There's every reason to expect MN to be tough and it looks like it will be. But I'm sure Obama will invest significant resources there and get it done in the end.

[MadBadger]

27. Do yourself a favor and look at the crosstabs

Do you think Obama is losing voters 18-49, but winning voters 50 and over? You dont do you....neither do I, and that puts the whole poll in question.

[ClarkUSA]

32. What a bogus OP title. The average of the last 10 polls has Obama up by 5, 49.8%-44.8%, Einstein.

One poll does not a trend make: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

Who'd you vote for in the primaries? Lemme guess... it wasn't Obama. :eyes:

[MadBadger]

33. Nah, OP's been behind Obama since the primaries.

[ClarkUSA]

46. Then he's a genuine Chicken Little.

Enough with that, already.

[ClarkUSA]

47. Another Chicken Little false alert! CNN /TIME Poll: "Obama Blowing Away McCain in MN: 54-43%"

CNN/Time shows Obama leading in Minnesota 54-43%. Will McCain abandon MN? Oh wait, SurveyUSA says MN is leaning McCain....

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/

Hat Tip Roberto1223 for subject title idea. :)

[GoesTo11]

35. Intrade Minnesota - Obama 85%

Not quite time to panic yet.

[alcibiades_mystery]

38. Third post today on this poll...can we get another?

How about 20 before nightfall???

:eyes:

[MadBadger]

40. I'll post one on its bullshit.

[Erin Elizabeth]

44. If McCain wins Minnesota, I'll eat every one of my purses.

Seriously.

Not gonna happen.

[mod mom]

48. Survey USA also had McCain up in FL by 1 WITH 21% OF THE AF AM VOTE:

this Survey USA poll in FL has McCain up by 1 but has 21% of Af Am voting for him:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae88e59-f8e1-4ea1-9397-5c19f91abcc1

[Beausoir]

49. WCCO Radio just this morning reported Obama up and outside MOE. MN is safe.

Take it to the bank.

[woolldog]

63. That's good news.

Do you have a link?

[Beausoir]

65. No. It was on WCCO Radio at 825AM. But I just googled and am pretty astonished at the latest poll.

There is NO POSSIBLE WAY McCain will win up here.

Not ever going to happen.

[progressivebydesign]

53. PLEASE read this regarding SUSA's questionable polling data!

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2959

Apparently SurveyUSA undersamples groups, such as black voters, when the do many of these polls. They used outdated numbers on turnout, which affect the phone numbers they use when making their calls. Also, remember that SO many younger voters do not have home phones... or there is a roommate situation, where 4 voters are in one house with only one phone in one person's name.

There is no way McCranky could be leading in Minnesota. They are not stupid there.

Oh.. and don't forget that Survey USA is run by Jay Leve, a former executive for CitiBank, and is married to a VP from CitiBank. I'm just sayin' ...

[Tutonic]

83. Yep! Look at primary races in southern states. They never could

accoutn forthe black vote. Or Hispanic vote in texas. Bottom line--the polls like Mccain are so yesterday.

[woolldog]

84. I agree with you in one respect!

I already said upthread that I don't pay much attention to SUSA in southern states (that includes VA). But there isn't a large black population in MN, so I don't see why that would matter.

[thoughtcrime1984]

54. What a bunch of malarkey!

[myrna minx]

59. Bunk poll. I live in Minnesota and Obama will win our state.

McCain has sunk millions of dollars advertising here and Obama hasn't been advertising here at all, yet Obama consistently polls higher than McCain. If Obama was worried about Minnesota, he would be advertising here.

Minnesota voted for Mondale and Dukakis. We will vote for Obama too.

[PeaceNikki]

62. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican since Nixon in 1972

Not gonna happen.

[mzmolly]

64. CNN has Obama up 11 and Rassmussen has him up 8.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

QP must be polling down South along with Suburbs where R's do well? The TC area and the Northern part of the state will keep MN Blue.

[RichardRay]

68. If you're looking at 538 why are you ignoring what Nate is saying?

Go look at the Minnesota summary, the one that has Barack ahead by a measure outside the MoE and is projecting the state for him by 8.6%.

[Awsi Dooger]

70. Not worried about Minnesota

The GOP held their convention there. The state might not have the same blue partisan level tilt as recent years, like 2004 when it was nearly +6 more blue than the national as a whole. But for Obama to lose Minnesota he would probably have to lose the national popular vote, and perhaps by at least 2-3 points.

As long as Obama leads the national polling by anything close to this margin, there's no worry about Minnesota. Everything falls in line with the standard relationship.

[OmahaBlueDog]

72. I think it may be close only because the GOP is pumping money in over Norm Coleman

I'm going to guess that MN will be close, and will go for Coleman, but that Obama will take the state for the Presidency.

Which sucks for me, since I'm a Franken supporter.

[crankychatter]

73. Your OP is misleading and you are invited to ammend it to accurately reflect the facts

Too extreme of a statement
Raises fear levels
Over the top description
Leads people to believe Obama is actually "losing" a liberal state
Leaves out any mention of margin's of error

[PresidentObama]

74. Hell no. Minnesota is in the blue column, and will stay there n/t

[spanone]

75. one point is a loss?

[WI_DEM]

76. Did you happen to notice the Time/CNN poll just out yesterday which had Obama up by 11 in MN?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/mn/08-mn-pres-ge-mvo.php

Take a look.

[FVZA_Colonel]

77. Minnesota could lose work, but I don't think there's a hard chance he could lose.

There's always a chance, but with even a small bit more effort I think we can safely pull through.

[Barack_America]

82. On average, McCain has never been ahead in MN.

Never. Not once.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mn/minnesota_mccain_vs_obama-550.html

[woolldog]

85. Look at these trends though.

[DCBob]

86. If McCain had picked Pawlenty there might be a chance it could go red.

SUSA has been oddly leaning McCain all year for some reason. I think their methodology is messed up. If it gets any worse Obama will deploy his secret weapon -- Scarlett Johansson.